Political Fervor Taints Consumer Confidence Numbers

Tainted Tea & the Confidence Numbers

While The Greek is concerned about the significant decline in consumer confidence, something we have been warning would threaten the housing market and the general economy, we also smell a rat in the survey. Consumers have good reason to be troubled, don't get me wrong, but seasonal factors may be playing a role now as well. One such seasonal is of the irregular sort, and of political taint.

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Political Fervor Taints Consumer Confidence Numbers

Consumer Confidence sank to a mark of 48.5 in September, according to the Conference Board, which reported the news this morning. The data marked a new low, down from 53.5 in August. In fact, the index has shed 14.2 points since May. Economists were shocked by the degree of depression, with Bloomberg reporting the consensus expectation for the data point at 52.0. Considering that consumer confidence and spending is critical to the US economy, you should be paying close attention to this news.

The Horrible Truth

Consumers have had plenty good reason to sour, including a stagnant and sad labor market. With little new hiring occurring, surely the unemployed are growing increasingly depressed. Depression is certainly a good describer of just how hopeless the survey participants seem to be feeling. Their view of current conditions deteriorated in this latest check, with the Present Situation Index slipping to 23.1, from 24.9 in August. Still, it is their view of the future that should bother you more. The Expectations Index dropped precipitously, to 65.4, from a higher ledge of 72 last month.

The Director of the Conference Board said, "Overall, consumers' confidence in the state of the economy remains quite grim. And, with so few expecting conditions to improve in the near term, the pace of economic growth is not likely to pick up in the coming months." Regarding the present situation, those viewing business conditions as "bad" increased to 46.1%, from 42.3% previously. Only 8.1% said business conditions were "good." With regard to the job market, the number claiming jobs were hard to get depicted a dire environment as well.

Expectations

The American household outlook is indeed grim, and we can find no better descriptor. The percentage of people expecting business conditions to worsen increased, as did the number anticipating fewer job opportunities. This future outlook can have a dramatic impact on spending, because as Americans worry about income and wealth, they will spend cautiously.

Seasonal Impact?

Indeed, back-to-school shopping can have a way of reinforcing the inadequacy of an unemployment check. As such, we expect survey participants were a little more stressed than usual in September.

Conspicuously, we wonder what degree of impact political passions had in influencing the responses of Republican respondents during this special fall month. While things are bad, we can understand easily how worse they can seem by turning on C-SPAN to catch Republican House Leader John Boehner giving a speech. Or, you could switch on Fox television. Active Republican election campaign staffers and simple backers are surely included in the 5,000 households surveyed by the Conference Board, and so as we near November elections, their fervor is no doubt intensified. Perhaps they are also captured in these numbers...

I would assume any self-respecting Republican would express their complete discontent with the state of the economy now, given the other party runs the show today. So, while we see good enough reason for further deterioration in confidence, we warn that there may also be a taint to the tea in this particular reading.



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