This Week: Testing the Consumer Mood

This week's stock market news schedule highlights the two monthly consumer sentiment measurements. The consumer mood has soured in recent months, and is critical to both economic growth and investor enthusiasm, so keep closely attuned to the data points due Tuesday and Friday mornings. Friday's Personal Spending data should also tie in well with the week's driving factors. Also take note of Friday's manufacturing data, as institutional investors will be watching to see if further deceleration in the manufacturing sector might develop.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

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This Week: Testing the Consumer Mood

We reported on Monday's business schedule in an earlier article that you can find via this link.

Tuesday

The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) is first to the wire on Tuesday with its regular Weekly Same-Store Sales Report. Last week's report covering the period ended September 18 showed sales fell 1.4% week-to-week. All weekly data points were impacted in the period due to the proximity to the Labor Day holiday. The next few weeks' data will offer a clearer view of real sales activity and the consumer mood. On a year-to-year basis, sales improved 3.3%. Redbook noted a 2.2% gain for the same period.

Redundant as it may be, the S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index is due for report at 9:00 AM ET on Tuesday. The last report, which covered the long since passed month of June, showed that the 10-City Index experienced a month-to-month price increase of 1.0%. The seasonally adjusted version showed a lesser 0.3% increase, but the measures do not adjust for the First-Time Homebuyers Tax Credit, which expired in June. The index showed prices increased 5.0% against the prior year period. The data is old, and we have seen price decline in other metrics (FHFA data & Home Sales) since, and we have also found reason to expect it from other data points.

The Conference Board will report on Consumer Confidence at 10:00 AM ET Tuesday. This September measurement of consumer mood is expected by the consensus of economists to mark 52.0, which would compare against the last reading of 53.5. Confidence is down nearly 10 points since May, and there is little reason to expect significant improvement on Tuesday.

State Street (NYSE: STT) reports on Investor Confidence at 10:00 AM. Investor Confidence fell in August, to 92.1, from 96.5. Stocks have been on the rise since the end of August, and so you can expect a better read here as well.

In DC, the Senate Budget Committee will examine the outlook for the economy and fiscal policy. This should make for an interesting political scuffle, as Republicans forget their sins of the past and point at Democrats as culprits behind recent deficits. There's a tough political debate in progress now, a fundamental struggle between fiscal prudence posturering and economic stimuli storm trooping. Meanwhile, the Senate Judiciary Committee examines ways to restore anti-fraud and anti-corruption laws post the Supreme Court decision regarding Enron's Jeffrey Skilling.

Overseas, North Korean leaders will meet in a rare gathering that some believe might offer insight into the Communist crazies succession plan.

The corporate news wire covers Hewlett-Packard's (NYSE: HPQ) analyst meeting. Barnes & Noble (NYSE: BKS) shareholders meet to vote on whether to give power to a group of directors headed by investor Ron Burkle. Look for EPS reports from Avatech Solutions (Nasdaq: AVSO), Cubic Energy (AMEX: QBC), Landec Corp. (Nasdaq: LNDC), Media Sciences International (Nasdaq: MSII), Misonix (Nasdaq: MSON), ModusLink Global Solutions (Nasdaq: MLNK), Napco Security Systems (Nasdaq: NSSC), Pro-Dex Inc. (Nasdaq: PDEX), Radiant Logistics (Nasdaq: RLGT), Sealy (NYSE: ZZ), SMSC (Nasdaq: SMSC), Sutor Tech Group (Nasdaq: SUTR) and Walgreen (NYSE: WAG).

JMP Securities LLC Healthcare Focus Conference will feature presentations by Atricure (Nasdaq: ATRC), Celgene (Nasdaq: CELG), Halozyme (Nasdaq: HALO), and Pharmerica (NYSE: PMC). The Bank of America Merrill Lynch Power & Gas Leaders Conference brings presentations by American Water Works (NYSE: AWK) and Xcel (NYSE: XEL). The Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) Merrill Lynch Banking & Insurance Conference brings presentation by the Royal Bank of Scotland (NYSE: RBS). The Telsey Advisory Group Consumer Conference brings presentations by International Game Technology (NYSE: IGT) and Jos A. Bank Clothiers (Nasdaq: JOSB). The Davidson & Co. Engineering & Construction Conference brings KBR (NYSE: KBR) to the table.

Wednesday

President Obama will make news Wednesday as he ventures to Iowa and Virginia to discuss jobs and the economy. A House Financial Services panel will convene to discuss the future of housing finance. Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Plosser will address the Greater Vineland Chamber of Commerce in Vineland, New Jersey on the topic of unwinding monetary stimulus.

The Mortgage Bankers Association will publish its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey in the premarket as usual Wednesday. Last week's report covering the period ended September 17 illustrated the impact of the Labor Day holiday. The Market Composite Index of activity decreased 1.4% on a seasonally adjusted basis but increased 22.9% when unadjusted. Refinance activity decreased 0.9%, while Purchase Activity fell 3.3% on an unadjusted basis. Contracted rates on 30-year and 15-year fixed rate mortgages averaged 4.44% (down from 4.47%) and 3.88% (from 3.96%), respectively. Look for a more normal reading this time around.

In the week ending September 17, the EIA reported crude oil inventory increased by 1.0 million barrels while total motor gasoline inventory increased by 1.6 million barrels. Both crude oil and gasoline stocks stood above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. Look for new data at 10:30 ET Wednesday.

Agricultural (farm) Prices are due for report for September at 3:00 PM ET. The report includes crop prices and livestock & produce prices, and is watched by economists for signs of inflation and its impact on the cost of living.

Overseas, the Bank of Japan publishes its tankan survey Wednesday.

In corporate news, look for EPS reports from Actuant (NYSE: ATU), American Greetings (NYSE: AM), China Precision Steel (Nasdaq: CPSL), CKE Restaurants (CKE.F), Family Dollar (NYSE: FDO), OMNOVA Solutions (NYSE: OMN), SYNNEX (NYSE: SNX), Worthington Industries (NYSE: WOR) and Xyratex (Nasdaq: XRTX).

FedEx (NYSE: FDX) meets with analysts on Wednesday. The JMP Securities LLC Financial Services and Real Estate Conference brings presentations by Amerisafe (Nasdaq: AMSF), D.R. Horton (NYSE: DHI), MFA Financial (NYSE: MFA) and Validus Holdings (NYSE: VR). The Wells Fargo Securities Consumer Conference (NYSE: WFC) brings presentations by Asbury Automotive (NYSE: ABG), Denny's (Nasdaq: DENN), Jack in the Box (Nasdaq: JACK), and Morton's Restaurant Group (NYSE: MRT). The Bank of America Merrill Lynch Banking & Insurance Conference brings news from BNP Paribus (Paris: BNP.PA) and Credit Suisse (NYSE: CS). The Bank of America Merrill Lynch Power & Gas Leaders Conference brings presentations by Exelon (NYSE: EXC) and Progress Energy (NYSE: PGN). Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F) is at the Paris Auto Show UBS Investor Conference (NYSE: UBS). The Oppenheimer & Co. Industrials Conference brings news from Kraton Performance Polymers (NYSE: KRA) and United Rentals (NYSE: URI).

Thursday

The final adjustment to second quarter GDP will be announced on Thursday at 8:30 AM ET. Economists expect no change to the data point, with growth seen at 1.6%. However, at last review, Q2 GDP was revised down from +2.4%. The GDP Price Index is also seen unchanged at +1.9%. This being the third report of GDP makes the chances of further adjustment less likely, and so what would seem like an important data point takes a back seat to other news.

The Weekly Jobless Claims data is due at its regular 8:30 reporting time. In the week ending September 18, jobless claims increased by 12,000, to 465K. Evidencing the stagnant state of labor, the four-week moving average eased by 3,250 to 463,250. Insured unemployment declined a tenth of a point to 3.5% in the week ending September 11. Economists forecast this week's claims report will measure 459K.

The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index is due for report at 9:45 AM ET. September's Business Barometer Index is seen measuring at 56.0, down from 56.7 at last report.

The EIA will report on Natural Gas Inventory at 10:30 Thursday. In the week ending September 17, natural gas inventory increased by 73 Bcf. Natural gas stocks stood 175 Bcf less than last year at this time and 195 Bcf above the 5-year average.

In corporate news, look for Sanofi-Aventis (NYSE: SNY) to hold a thematic seminar on diabetes and oncology. Dice Holdings (NYSE: DHX), LeCroy Corp. (Nasdaq: LCRY), The Advisory Board (Nasdaq: ABCO), Valassis Communications (NYSE: VCI), and Marsh & McLennan (NYSE: MMC) have investor or analyst days scheduled.

The EPS schedule includes news from Accenture (NYSE: ACN), Aehr Test Systems (Nasdaq: AEHR), AZZ Inc. (NYSE: AZZ), Charles River Associates (Nasdaq: CRAI), Christopher & Banks (NYSE: CBK), DemandTec (Nasdaq: DMAN), Lawson Software (Nasdaq: LWSN), McCormick & Company (NYSE: MKC), MSCI Inc. (Nasdaq: MSCI), Resources Global Professionals (Nasdaq: RECN) and Smart Modular Technologies (Nasdaq: SMOD).

DuPont (NYSE: DD) presents at the Oppenheimer 5th Annual Industrials Conference. O'Charleys Inc. (Nasdaq: CHUX) presents at the Wells Fargo Securities Consumer Conference.

Friday

Motor Vehicle Sales will be reported throughout the day Friday. Economists expect September Domestic Vehicle Sales will measure $8.6 million (annual rate). That would mark an increase from August's $8.3 million rate, which was down from July's $8.7 million.

Personal Income & Outlays will be reported for the month of August at 8:30 AM ET. Economists see personal spending rising 0.4%, which would match July's growth rate. The consensus sees personal income gaining 0.3% in August, a better rate than the 0.2% increase seen in July. The Fed's favored inflation gauge, the Core PCE Price Index is expected to show an increase of 0.1%.

The University of Michigan reports on Consumer Sentiment in conjunction with Reuters at 9:55 AM ET. Bloomberg's survey of economists sees this latest check up of consumer mood showing an improvement to a mark of 67.0, up from 66.6 at last check.

ISM will post its Manufacturing Index at 10:00 AM ET. Economists are looking for a September reading of 54.5, which would be down from 56.3 in August. Manufacturing is still decelerating, and so this particular metric should garner attention Friday.

Construction Spending is due at 10:00 AM as well. The latest data is expected to show a 0.4% drop for August, which would follow July's 1.0% collapse.

New York Federal Reserve Bank President William Dudley addresses the Society of American Business Editors and Writers in New York at 8:30 AM ET. Hey, I never got my invite, but I will be stealing market share away from all the folks attending.

Markets will be closed on Friday in China and Hong Kong, and Saturday marks the start of the Paris Motor Show.

The corporate news schedule highlights auto sales from Ford (NYSE: F), Toyota (NYSE: TM), Honda (NYSE: HMC), General Motors, Daimler (Nasdaq: DDAIF.PK), Nissan (Nasdaq: NSANY) and others. Liberty Media (Nasdaq: LINTA), LiveNation (NYSE: LYV) and Sunstone Hotel Investors (NYSE: SHO) present at investor days.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.