Jobless Claims Nightmare

I Told You So Again!

A jobless claims nightmare unfolded before the unsuspecting eyes of every single economist this week, except of course for your favorite independent correspondent found here.

Markos N. Kaminis earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, and Mr. Kaminis has appeared across major media. While writing for Wall Street Greek, he presciently predicted the financial crisis in detail.

(Tickers: NYSE: RHI, NYSE: KFY, NYSE: MAN, NYSE: MWW, Nasdaq: KELYA, Nasdaq: JOBS, NYSE: JOB, Nasdaq: CECO, Nasdaq: PAYX, NYSE: ASF, Nasdaq: KFRC, NYSE: TBI, NYSE: DHX, NYSE: SFN, NYSE: CDI, Nasdaq: CCRN, Nasdaq: ASGN, NYSE: AHS, Nasdaq: BBSI, Nasdaq: HHGP, NYSE: SRT, Nasdaq: RCMT, Nasdaq: VSCP, OTC: ASRG.OB, OTC: MCTH.OB, OTC: IGEN.OB, OTC: STJO.OB, OTC: TNUS.OB, Nasdaq: TSTF, OTC: STTH.OB, OTC: PSRU.OB, OTC: CRRS.OB, NYSE: DIA, NYSE: SPY, Nasdaq: QQQQ, NYSE: DOG, NYSE: SDS, NYSE: QLD, NYSE: NYX, NYSE: ICE, Nasdaq: NDAQ)

Jobless Claims Nightmare

Weekly initial jobless claims served another wake up call to the investment community this morning. Just when economists capitulated and bought into a higher level of weekly claims, looking for 480K this week, versus the 460K they expected last week, claims jump even higher to 500K. Three weeks of increasing new benefits filers at distressed levels has now brought the four-week moving average of jobless claims up 8,000, to 482,500.

I had déjà vu more than I knew as I spoke of double-dip recession over the last few months. As I listened to several so-called gurus on Bloomberg Radio (as recent as this week) speaking of unwarranted warnings for double-dip recession published on the web, I remembered the comments of those same gentlemen (I would say fellows, but that implies kinship) from years past. I remember when they labeled me, yes moi, an "Armageddon Analyst" a few years back, when I warned of financial crisis, economic turmoil, financial sector demise (including the short calls on stocks like Washington Mutual and others), the rise and fall and rise and fall again of oil prices, etc. By the way, not one of 42 economists surveyed by Bloomberg forecast claims this high this week. Perhaps they will now finally get their arms around a new paradigm of a new miserable economy.

Those fellows would do better just reading and regurgitating The Greek's wisdom, like they sometimes do. I'm talking about the big picture guys; you know who they are. I admire them for their profiteering skill, but not much more (well they also have memorization and speaking skills). I would not mind trading a bit of our prescience for their money-making skill, if anybody is listening… (Call me babe – wink, nod).

Heck, even the President seemed to read and learn from my criticism of his recent comments about the World Trade Center Mosque as he backtracked the next day. How far is the reach of this Greek school anyway? Do I rule the world without even knowing it??? Well, I'm probably the lowest paid high-end consultant in the world, that's for darn sure! Or perhaps my empire simply extends from the one end of the farthest reaches (read inches) of my cerebral cavity to the other (weigh in below, but keep in mind I know where you live).

A few days ago we warned that WalMart's stock specific news should not be transferred across the retail sector nor the broader market, as it carried negative implications for both. But did you listen? The broader market rose a couple days straight, though in staggered fashion. That's not the case today though, as the ship hits the iceberg I warned the captain was certainly ahead. The Dow Jones Industrial Index is down 1.5% or so at the hour of this scribbling, and I'm sorry to say, I think we're going to sink folks. In the words of a modern day mistress, "Jack, it's so cold. I can't feel my legs." Can you feel yours?

The data covering the week ended August 14 showed a claims level not seen since November of 2009. Those were dark days friends, when claims ran upward of 500K, to even higher than 700K a week many months before that. I'm tired of repeating myself though, by repeating what got us here, how bad it is, the mistakes our political proponents are making, and how worse it will get; so please look through the "double-dip recession" string at the blog to fill the space here. I said please!

As for this week's claims report, the insured unemployment rate stuck at 3.5% in the August 7 period. Of course, that's thanks to the magically shrinking American labor force and the famous work ethic of Americans who take on part-time jobs to keep the wife happy and at the same time put at risk the high level of benefits they qualify for pre-menial labor. See our faithful readers' comments at the latest "Topic of Debate," where one poor soul (prayed for here) talks about nearing bankruptcy because he took on part-time work. God help you brother. At least he qualifies for benefits though, as some of you lost your jobs before the extensions account for. God help these lost souls the government guides instead to welfare.

FYI

Adding insult to injury, even as this week's data worsened, last week's claims were raised to 488K from 484K. The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending July 31 were in Puerto Rico (6.7 percent), Pennsylvania (4.8), New Jersey (4.6), Oregon (4.6), California (4.5), Alaska (4.3), Connecticut (4.3), Nevada (4.3), Rhode Island (4.1), and Wisconsin (4.1).

The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending Aug. 7 were in California (+4,393), Indiana (+1,999), North Carolina (+1,895), Pennsylvania (+1,626), and Georgia (+1,458), while the largest decreases were in Wisconsin (-1,873), Puerto Rico (-1,014), New Jersey (-688), Utah (-503), and South Carolina (-291).

Extended benefits were available in Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, the District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Puerto Rico, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia, and Wisconsin during the week ending July 31.

Article should interest investors in Paychex (Nasdaq: PAYX), Manpower (NYSE: MAN), Robert Half International (NYSE: RHI), 51Job Inc. (Nasdaq: JOBS), Monster World Wide (NYSE: MWW), Korn/Ferry International (NYSE: KFY), Administaff (NYSE: ASF), Kforce (Nasdaq: KFRC), TrueBlue (NYSE: TBI), Dice Holdings (NYSE: DHX), Kelly Services (Nasdaq: KELYA), SFN Group (NYSE: SFN), CDI Corp. (NYSE: CDI), Cross Country Healthcare (Nasdaq: CCRN), On Assignment (Nasdaq: ASGN), AMN Healthcare Services (NYSE: AHS), Barrett Business Services (Nasdaq: BBSI), Hudson Highland Group (Nasdaq: HHGP), StarTek (NYSE: SRT), RCM Technologies (Nasdaq: RCMT), VirtualScopics (Nasdaq: VSCP), American Surgical (OTC: ASRG.OB), Medical Connections (OTC: MCTH.OB), iGen Networks (OTC: IGEN.OB), St. Joseph (OTC: STJO.OB), General Employment Enterprises (NYSE: JOB), Total Neutraceutical (OTC: TNUS.OB), TeamStaff (Nasdaq: TSTF), Stratum (OTC: STTH.OB), Purespectrum (OTC: PSRU.OB) and Corporate Resource Services (OTC: CRRS.OB).



Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.