Stock Market Alarm Bells Ring on Jobs Data

Morning Greek

Employment Situation Report

Market Impact: -4
(-5 to +5 scale)

Today's Employment Situation Report proved deflating, to say the least. Nonfarm Payrolls missed the mark big time, and when excluding census workers, overall job growth only measured 20K in May. Considering economists had much higher hopes, the stock market impact from this sad reality of the labor market should be harsh this morning. However, if the impact is exaggerated early, there may be a flood of buying in the afternoon. Look for our follow up report this morning detailing the employment report; we'll update our market read at that point as well.

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(Tickers: NYSE: DIA, NYSE: SPY, Nasdaq: QQQQ, NYSE: DOG, NYSE: SDS, NYSE: QLD)

Stock Market Alarm Bells Ring on Jobs Data

On the headline, and before weeding out all the noise, Nonfarm Payrolls increased by 431K in May, well short of the economists' consensus forecast for 540K, as estimated by Bloomberg (Barron's: 508K). When excluding the temporary census workers and when including public sector shedding, Nonfarm Payrolls only inched higher by 20,000. Talk about deflating!

The Unemployment Rate supposedly moved lower to 9.7%, from 9.9% in April, but we will update our Under-Employment Rate in our detailed study of the Employment Report later this morning to give you the truth. There are all kinds of shenanigans, excluding the temporary worker hiring, that play havoc with the unemployment rate.

Net net, it's absolutely clear that this report is deflating for stocks this morning. Futures were down early, and stocks have kept pace on the downside in the early going.



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