ADP, Jobless Claims & MEI Jobs Reports

Morning Greek

"Morning Greek" is replacing our old "Wake Up Call" reports, and will be a pre-market report from here forward. Look to the Morning Greek to provide investment enthusiasts and institutional pros with a quick rundown of all things necessary for an educated start to the trading day. We will continue to follow up Morning Greek with "Today's Coffee" and specific topical articles and reports as always. Within this regular article, we will rate the market-moving impact of economic data and provide an overall impression in quantitative and qualitative form. The quantitative form will be a "Greek Rating" on the day of between 1 to 5, with 3 marking neutral and 5 marking the strongest positive characteristics. Today's Greek Rating is 4, so stocks should start the day mildly positive.

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Jobs Reports: ADP, MEI & Jobless Claims

Jobs reports are proving key this morning, with ADP's Private Employment Report, the Monster Employment Index and Weekly Jobless Claims all coming due this morning. Productivity & Costs were revised for the first quarter and Factory Orders are due at 10:00 AM. The EIA will note both Petroleum and Natural Gas inventory levels later this morning. Retailers are reporting Chain Store Sales today for the month of May, and the EPS list is included here below.

ADP Private Employment Report

Automatic Data Processing (ADP) produced its Private Employment Report for the month of May this morning. ADP's data shows private nonfarm payrolls increased by 55,000 in May, versus an upwardly revised April count of 65,000 (from initially reported 32K). More good news could be found in the details, as medium and small businesses contributed most to job growth. Small business added a net 13K, and medium sized operations contributed 39K jobs; while large operations added a net 3K. The significant service sector also took part in job growth, adding 78K. We view this report as a net positive for stocks today, and on a scale of 1 to 5 in terms of importance, with 5 being most and 3 being a neutral effect, mark the ADP data down as a "4".

Monster Employment Index

May's Monster Employment Index (MEI), produced by Monster World Wide (NYSE: MWW), improved a notch to 134, from 133 in April. Monster reports online job demand is up 14% year-over-year, as healthcare and social assistance sectors drove demand the most. The management and accommodation/food services sectors contracted. Improvement was broad-based geographically, as 15 major metro markets showed gains. Rate this factor a 4 at first blush, or a net positive for the start of the stock trading day.

Weekly Jobless Claims

For the week ended May 29, the Department of Labor reports new filings for unemployment insurance fell by 10K, to 453K. The four-week moving average still increased by 1,750, to 459K, so not much change really here. Still, a decrease is always better than an increase on this data point. Rate this a neutral market factor today (3), which given the other data released this morning, is still a good thing.

Productivity & Costs Report

First quarter Productivity and Costs data was revised this morning. Productivity growth was revised downward, to an annualized +2.8%, from the initially reported 3.6%. This shortfall was also below economists' consensus for +3.4% (Bloomberg). Productivity and Unit Labor Costs have an inverse relationship, and so ULC deteriorated from an initially reported decrease of 1.6%, to a reduction of 1.3%. Interestingly though, economists had ULC on the mark - makes no sense given the miss on the Productivity call, and is likely the result of a small sample. This news is a negative drag on stocks today, so we would rate it a 2.

Factory Orders

Factory Orders will be reported for the month of April at 10:00 AM. Economists' expectations are pegged at +1.8%, versus March's +1.3%; nondurables growth of 2.9% drove March, but was driven by energy price change. More recently, durable orders growth in April indicates economists are likely correct in looking for an improved rate here.

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index

ISM reports its Non-Manufacturing Index for May at 10:00 AM today. The consensus is looking for an improvement to 55.9, from April's 55.4. Chicago PMI data seems to point toward potential moderation to maybe moderate improvement here.

Chain Store Sales

Most retailers begin reporting May Chain Store Sales today. Look for data from the likes of Costco (Nasdaq: COST), Target (NYSE: TGT), Kohl's (NYSE: KSS), Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF), TJX (NYSE: TJX), The Limited (NYSE: LTD) and more.

EIA Petroleum Status & Natural Gas Reports

The EIA reports both Petroleum Status (11:00 AM) and Natural Gas Inventory (10:30) today due to Monday's holiday.

DC Drivers

Federal Open Market Committee members of the Fed, Eric Rosengren and Thomas Hoenig (the deadly dissenter) both address the financial crisis and economy in public speaking engagements today.

International News & Drivers

Markets are closed today in Austria, Brazil and Poland for a religious holiday. G-20 ministers are gathering for a meeting in South Korea.

International Market Activity:

Europe:

• ESTX 50: +1.97%
• FTSE 100: +1.83%
• CAC 40: +2.01%
• DAX: +1.65%

Asia:

• NIKKEI 225: +3.24%
• Hang Seng: +1.62%
• S&P ASX 200: +2.4%
• CSI 300: -0.78%
• KRX 100: +2.25%
• BSE Sensex 30: +1.68%

Index changes published here were taken at hour of publishing and may not be correct by the time of your reading them and by market closing.

Corporate News Drivers

Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) will give a business review today for shareholders. Analysts meetings are scheduled at Noble Energy (NYSE: NBL), Ashland (NYSE: ASH), Thomson Reuters (NYSE: TRI), Cabot Microelectronics (Nasdaq: CCMP) and Advanced Energy Industries (Nasdaq: AEIS). IPO lockup restrictions expire for Neurocrine Biosciences (Nasdaq: NBIX) and Overseas Shipholding Group (NYSE: OSG).

EPS reports are due for Agilysys (Nasdaq: AGYS), America's Car-Mart (Nasdaq: CRMT), Charming Shoppes (Nasdaq: CHRS), China Finance Online (Nasdaq: JRJC), Comtech Telecommunications (Nasdaq: CMTL), EasyLink (Nasdaq: ESIC), Joy Global (Nasdaq: JOYG), Krispy Kreme Doughnut (NYSE: KKD), Martek Biosciences (Nasdaq: MATK), Medical Nutrition (Nasdaq: MDNU), Modine Manufacturing (NYSE: MOD), Navarre (Nasdaq: NAVR), Oculus Innovative Sciences (Nasdaq: OCLS), Pulaski Fin'l (Nasdaq: PULB), Quiksilver (NYSE: ZQK), SAIC (NYSE: SAI), Sonic Solutions (Nasdaq: SNIC), Streamline Health Solutions (Nasdaq: STRM), Suntech Power (NYSE: STP), The Cooper Cos. (NYSE: COO), Ulta Salon Cosmetics and Fragrance (Nasdaq: ULTA), UTi Worldwide (Nasdaq: UTIW) and Wimm-Bill-Dann Foods (NYSE: WBD).



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