Is the Recession Over?
The world wants to know! But more importantly, we want to know what you think!
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With third quarter GDP reported +3.5%, can we finally write off "The Great Recession?" Some have asked (including "The Greek") if government stimulus simply produced synthetic growth in Q3. After all, Motor Vehicle Sales made a 1.66 percentage point impact to GDP, and "Cash for Clunkers" was partly behind that. Since the end of the clunkers program, auto sales have tanked back to their nothingness. Christina Romer, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisors to the President, indicated during an interview Saturday that the clunkers program probably added 0.4% to GDP.
Meanwhile, the First-Time Homebuyer Tax Credit is slated to expire at the end of the year. More importanly, history tells us that after an initial growth spurt on inventory build post recession, the economy often backtracks into economic decline for a quarter. Given the degree of initial economic decline this time around, and the fact that unemployment is flirting with double-digits and under-employment is nearing 20%, maybe it is still premature to sound the all-clear sirens to spend!? Consumers are not spending by the way, so how can a consumer driven economy grow while folks are hiding in their basements? Is a jobless recovery possible? Here's your chance to tell the world what you think:
Is the Recession Over?
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Labels: Double_Dip_Recession
posted by The Greek | 11:59 PM
8 Comments:
It's not over, not by a long shot. People losing jobs every day. Businesses both small and large going bankrupt or closing factory's. Check out this link if you're not already.
http://www.dailyjobcuts.com/
I live in a rural area of southwest Virgina. We've been in a recession for 20 years. Textile plants sit empty. Furniture factories also closing. Dell closing almost new factory in nearby Winston-Salem, N.C.. International Paper closing mill in Franklin Virginia.
Foreclosure sales averaging about 8 a week here. A big number for a county of 30,000. A lot more in default.
I work for a state agency and find out my fate in mid December.
I say it gets much worse before it gets better. I think its a "Depression" not a recession. Jobless recovery my butt.
I think the market rally is out of gas or soon will be. Looking at charts this morning I can make a case for some more upside and also make a case that the tops in. We'll soon see.
No ! And it won't be until the economic power of the large Government protected (financed, that is) businesses is stopped.
Once this present policy of "to-large-to-fail" that has drained our Country's economic strength is ended (that only protects a few at the expense of all), the sooner the market place forces will clean out the toxit assests holding back the recovery. Political economic decisions are not a smart way to solve our failing economy.
The greatest depression actually started in 2000 when the dot com bubble burst. So no it's not over yet. This slide down will take decades while American, European, Japanese, and Australian lifestyles decrease and Asian lifestyles increase.
Oil prices will continue it's steady march upward (think decade long charts...whole cares if it crashed last year. 20 years from now that will look like a little blip at the bottom of a chart).
Yes oil will continue higher, the dollar is be devalued, and salaries and jobs are taking a hit. No sir we are not even close to the bottom...who cares what the stock market actually thinks. Ask joe down the street what he thinks...it's a lot more relvant.
I hate to sound so negative, but I simply don't see anyway out of the current mess we are in. Since 2000 we have been loosing jobs over time. The real unemployment rate is over 15%, creditsw are being given to help people buy houses that will continue to lose value over the next decade. people are inspired to buy new cars...not a bad idea...but they should have waited until the electric cars were out...or they should have limited it to hybrids.
Maybe the eye of the Hurricane.
Real estate will make a "recovery" for a while with big inflation and we will have jobs again for a while.
Then we will collapse in a few years once we realize the dollar is worth nothing and the world has abandoned the currency.
We don't manufacture anything anymore except war and we are being overrun by stupid people including our Lobbyist chosen leaders.
I have to agree with the previous comments. We will be facing a long hard road to recovery and it won't have anything to do with government bail outs.
I have to agree with the poster John. We are in the midst of an 18year Bear Cycle that won't complete until sometime in 2018. Government is just digging a bigger hole with all this deficit spending, and i only causing higher inevitable interest rates down the road to saddle my children and grandchildren with an unsustainable debt because the selfish ME Generation could not tighten their belts and just deal with the Recession that was long overdue from the excesses of the '90's. The People get what they deserve. And they got ObamO. Not that Bush was any better...where is America's Dark Knight who will speak the hard truth to its people?
Uncle - With regard to a "dark knight" or someone who will speak truth to America, I think you are referring to Mitt Romney, America's next president.
Mitt Romney is an ok choice. I like Peter Schiff better.
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