Wall Street Greek: Same-Store Sales Figures Improving Naturally

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Today's regular reporting of the retail same-store sales figures showed they are improving naturally. Sales are of course coming up against seasonal influences and otherwise soft comparables, so improvement should be expected to continue in the months ahead, despite a still hobbled economic environment.

Same-Store Sales Figures

Weekly Same-Store Sales

The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) reported weekly same-store sales earlier this morning. Growth, any growth, is good news, and the ICSC produced some more of it again this week. Of course, the comparable figures are only going to get easier through the beginning of next year, so expect to see better and better growth despite unhealthy unemployment levels. The panic that characterized last spring stopped all spending and investment at the time, including even from the pockets of the extremely wealthy (as exemplified by Saks (NYSE: SKS) and Tiffany (NYSE: TIF) sales trends). As the environment normalized, renewed confidence offered an initial boost to spending and investment as well.

In the week ended October 17, the ICSC noted sales improved 2.8% over last year's tally, but what's more impressive is that sales improved 0.2% over the previous week. Of course, as we enter the holiday shopping season, those special influences will lead even the sequential weekly growth figures higher.

Last week's reported data (Oct. 10) showed a 0.6% improvement over the week before it. Year-to-year sales improved in that period as well, rising 1.0%.

Retail Sales September

September's retail sales, reported last week, showed surprising resiliency. Sales rose 0.4%, even when excluding autos and gasoline. Gasoline prices had increased in September, providing a positive skew, and auto sales plummeted after the "cash for clunkers" purchase incentive was pulled. Including gasoline, retail sales improved 0.5%, beating the economists' consensus estimate for a 0.3% improvement.

Including auto sales, retail sales dropped like a rock, down 1.5%. Though that compared against economists' expectations for a steeper 2.1% decline. Clearly, autos drove the downhill ride, as those sales fell 10.4%. The monthly tallies for the individual automakers matched their proportional gains from the incentive program. Toyota Motors (NYSE: TM), which got some of the greatest boost from clunkers, saw a September over August sales drop-off of 44%. Honda Motors (NYSE: HMC) experienced a 52% slide, as its in-demand clunker sellers returned to earth. Nissan (Nasdaq: NSANY) sales fell 47%; Hyundai Motors sales sank 47%; General Motors (NYSE: GM) sales dropped 37%; Ford Motors (NYSE: F) fell 37%; Chrysler slipped 33%. For even further illustration of the "Cash for Clunkers" impact, take note of the soft sales changes at these unaffected firms: Mercedes-Benz -1%; Jaguar +1%; Maserati +2%; Porsche +4%; Bentley +30%.

A Retail Data Don't Miss!

The most important American retailer, Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), has its annual analyst and investor meeting this Thursday. Catch the call!