Technicals Show Multi-Week Top
Visit the front pages of Wall Street Greek to see our current coverage of economic reports and financial markets.
(Tickers: DIA, SPY, QQQQ, NYX, DOG, SDS, QLD, XLF, IWM, TWM, IWD, SDK, ICE)
UPDATED (August 11)
The Greek has invited me back from hiatus on multiple occasions, and so I finally take time to oblige with an important and time-sensitive announcement:
I am writing primarily to warn readers that we are within two-three trading days of a multi-week top in major stock market indices, based on my analysis. We may trade as high as 1050 on the S&P and 9700 on the DOW between now and the middle of this week, though I view it equally likely that we reached the pinnacle in trading on Friday, August 7th. A decisive break below 990 on the S&P would indicate that the top is in. What happens after we reach any near-term top will be the subject of further analysis, but for now it is my opinion that investors should consider taking at least some profit from any recent gains in stocks or commodities. However, should the Federal Reserve abandon its Treasury Purchase Program (read: printing press) en masse, commodities may retain some hedging appeal.
I also write to explain in part the reason for my failure to contribute to this important and informative forum. It is not for lack of interest that I have been absent in commentary; rather, I became so disgusted with our country's political and corporate leadership that I lost sight of any original objectives I may have had in authoring a column. At a time when readers likely need objective analysis of capital markets, my contributions were becoming bitter rants. And while the commentary may have offered a well-aimed counterpoint to the nonsense perpetuated by mainstream financial media, it contained little practical advice of any financial benefit.
Rest assured, I have been and will continue to be an active voice of dissent as I advocate a sound fiscal policy response among the Congressman and Senators from both parties who are supposed to represent the interests of everyday people. However, since it seems that we are not so fairly or competently represented, especially in matters that greatly impact our present and future financial interests, I am resolved to help the community of Wall Street Greek readers with more practical, objective and quantitative analysis of capital markets. I do hope you'll forgive me if I also engage in subjective commentary on occasion as well.
Please look for more analysis in the relatively near future.
Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there.
(Tickers: DIA, SPY, QQQQ, NYX, DOG, SDS, QLD, XLF, IWM, TWM, IWD, SDK, ICE)
UPDATED (August 11)
The Greek has invited me back from hiatus on multiple occasions, and so I finally take time to oblige with an important and time-sensitive announcement:Technicals Show Multi-Week Top
I am writing primarily to warn readers that we are within two-three trading days of a multi-week top in major stock market indices, based on my analysis. We may trade as high as 1050 on the S&P and 9700 on the DOW between now and the middle of this week, though I view it equally likely that we reached the pinnacle in trading on Friday, August 7th. A decisive break below 990 on the S&P would indicate that the top is in. What happens after we reach any near-term top will be the subject of further analysis, but for now it is my opinion that investors should consider taking at least some profit from any recent gains in stocks or commodities. However, should the Federal Reserve abandon its Treasury Purchase Program (read: printing press) en masse, commodities may retain some hedging appeal.
I also write to explain in part the reason for my failure to contribute to this important and informative forum. It is not for lack of interest that I have been absent in commentary; rather, I became so disgusted with our country's political and corporate leadership that I lost sight of any original objectives I may have had in authoring a column. At a time when readers likely need objective analysis of capital markets, my contributions were becoming bitter rants. And while the commentary may have offered a well-aimed counterpoint to the nonsense perpetuated by mainstream financial media, it contained little practical advice of any financial benefit.
Rest assured, I have been and will continue to be an active voice of dissent as I advocate a sound fiscal policy response among the Congressman and Senators from both parties who are supposed to represent the interests of everyday people. However, since it seems that we are not so fairly or competently represented, especially in matters that greatly impact our present and future financial interests, I am resolved to help the community of Wall Street Greek readers with more practical, objective and quantitative analysis of capital markets. I do hope you'll forgive me if I also engage in subjective commentary on occasion as well.
Please look for more analysis in the relatively near future.
Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there.
posted by The Greek | 9:21 AM
6 Comments:
One week later on Aug 13, your top is here again at 1010 from Aug 7. Are you still calling for a blowoff top to 1050 or a rollover?
I am watching the technicals of BAC as every speculator is running to bac for something. It can't seem to break out. The dollar has been closely correlated to the market. Do you think that the dollar is about to assend? What is your call on the market from 1010?
Hi Dr. Blackcat
The Greek actually published the article on Monday AM, but you are right...the top is only slowly rolling over
The specific turn window was August 10th-14th, so we should be close. The median date (yesterday) has indeed passed.
Also, today's close did broach the 1010 mark and so we "seem" poised for the blowoff top to 1050. But I am still not convinced, so I will stick with the timing (this week) and the double top below 1020.
Last, I do think the dollar eventually strengthens in relation to other asset classes....i.e. deflation. I think strengthening will be related to capital flows rather than any economic fundamentals. This runs counter to predictions offered by most market commentators who observe Fed policy.
The question I would ask: are there really any "good" currencies (stores of wealth)?
The downside target for this corrective move on the S&P is 960
Should we penetrate that level of resistance, a more protracted correction to 910 is possible. This would not bode well for the market in the short term
The more important question is whether we have seen the high to the bear market rally. This is the subject of future analysis
The technicals are still calling for a low volume break higher just like Aug 2003. The market is not allowing ebb and flow. Monday was the only true day of Ebb and flow but if you shorted or did not cover you are underwater again. I must say the chart formation now looks very much like a new break out. What is your call from here?
Blow off to 1050??
You talk about the currency. Check your charts.
The euro is about to breakout, the pound is about to lose to the yen but is it enough if the dollar breaks down? It could breakout too.
It may be a crowded trade to be short the dollar but that is still working.
Sorry for the latent replies
I believe the top is in. We did not quite make the 1047 target, at least not yet. Keep an eye on 1040(not the A form ...ironic, isn't it) and 1013. I would still recommend selling long positions here and raising cash.
Also, long the dollar as equities sell off and dollar-denominated debt is delevered. This is a more dubious prediction since I have also watched our FED create money out of thin air. However, the previous supply was largely created through credit ...and that is weighing on the whole
Post a Comment
<< Home