Wall Street Greek: Jobless Claims Ease in Latest Tally

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Jobless Claims

Weekly Initial Jobless Claims for the period ending August 1st came in 38K lower than the prior week's revised figure. Claims, at 550K, compared very favorably against the prior week's bounce to 588K (revised).

The weekly tally of the newly jobless also did better than the economists' consensus estimate for 575K. Still, should we be as enthused by this data as this morning's Bloomberg radio expert commentator was (a guest of course... Lord knows I love Tom Keene)? The man was overjoyed! I do not think so. The four-week moving average did improve, yes, but by only 4,750, to 555,250, a still hefty level of layoffs. When unemployment is reported for July tomorrow morning, the figure will not be improved (I do not use the word "will" very often).

We can relax a bit though. It is clear that the flow of the bleeding is slowing, and so we have a better chance of surviving... but if we lose too much blood, might we still die before regaining our health? As unemployment prepares to exceed 10%, frugal consumers and banks threaten to stymie economic growth and perhaps even drive a double dip recession. I'm not necessarily forecasting that, but I agree with Messenger Bernanke that economic recovery is more likely to be slow in its initial go.

Useful Data for You

The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending July 18 were in Puerto Rico (8.0 percent), Michigan (6.7), Oregon (6.5), Pennsylvania (6.5), Nevada (6.1), Wisconsin (5.7), Connecticut (5.5), New Jersey (5.5), California (5.4), Rhode Island (5.3), and South Carolina (5.3).

The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending July 25 were in Ohio (+891), Oklahoma (+644), Mississippi (+222), Louisiana (+154), and Alaska (+129), while the largest decreases were in North Carolina (-9,809), Michigan (-9,085), Florida (-8,714), Georgia (-6,948), and Alabama (-3,822).

Extended benefits were available in Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, the District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Puerto Rico, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin during the week ending July 18.