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Wednesday, May 20, 2009

Premarket Business Summary - Washington Bonanza

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Another light economic slate is complemented by a busy day in Washington DC. The Treasury Secretary's appearances before Congressional committee always offer entertaining programming for C-SPAN fans. Today, we'll hear from Geithner, Volcker, the SEC and the Federal Reserve.

(Article interests: NYSE: TOL, NYSE: TGT, NYSE: BJ, NYSE: AFL, NYSE: SYK, DIA, SPY, QQQQ, NYX, DOG, SDS, QLD, XLF, IWM, TWM, IWD, SDK)

Premarket Business Summary


Geithner on the Hill

the greekTreasury Secretary Geithner likely downs a handful of stomach soothers before heading up to Capitol Hill for TARP briefings. Today he'll discuss the progress, successes and failures of TARP before a publicity hungry group of Senators. The Senate Banking Committee will grill Geithner, today's sacrificial lamb, for the sake of winning over angry constituents at home. God bless anybody who has the constitution to take such a high profile government gig. I suggest you try to catch the TV or radio coverage of the firing line. I promise it will be worth the later questioning from your silly supervisor about where you were.

Volcker from the Rocking Chair

Paul Volcker's Economic Recovery Advisory Board meets to marinade meat for the Memorial Day government BBQ? The bright and learned group meets to likely talk over things like green shoots and shooting bank CEOs. There are a lot of topics to cover, Lord knows, but we suspect they'll focus discussion to their many varied views on where the economy lies and whether it may fall or rise again.

SEC on Better Boarding

The SEC will not be water boarding anyone... We hear your disappointment on that one... However, the new and improved corporate police will debate and discuss the viability of allowing shareholder nominations to corporate boards. The SEC seems to have higher priorities than this, as groups of shareholders and vying interests can already pressure companies. Meanwhile, rating agencies continue to issue ratings on companies that pay them for the grade.

Fed Meeting Minutes

The Fed releases its minutes from its late April meeting. You can find the notes at the Fed website at 2:00 p.m., and on a light day like this the news will get a thorough look through by the popular press. Be careful not to fall into the trap of news makers; don't let sensational coverage impact your long-term investment strategy.

Mortgage Activity Report

The Mortgage Bankers Association produced its Weekly Applications Survey early this morning. Today's data covers the week through May 15. The overall index rose modestly up 2.3%, driven by Refinance Index fuel (+4.5%), which was slightly offset by lower Purchase Activity (-4.4%). Behind the numbers, the average contract interest rate for 30-year mortgages decreased to 4.69%, from 4.76% the week before. Highlighting how soft new housing is these days, refinancing now encompasses 73.6% of total mortgage activity. Finally, the four-week moving average for the Market Composite Index (covering both Purchases and Refis) is down 6.4%.

EIA Petroleum Status

Later this morning, at 10:30, the EIA produces its regular Petroleum Status Report. Last week, crude oil inventories fell by 4.7 million barrels, but oil still got a lift thanks to the now passed Obama/Netanyahu summit; the recent OPEC production cut; a large gasoline draw from inventory; and those green shoots we've been talking about. We're thinking another big build here might now take a few points off oil in the short short-term.

Corporate News Drivers

Stryker (NYSE: SYK) and Aflac (NYSE: AFL) have analysts meetings scheduled for today. The earnings slate highlights reports from Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL), Target (NYSE: TGT), BJ's Wholesale Club (NYSE: BJ) and Deere (NYSE: DE).

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