Wall Street Greek: ICSC Weekly Same-Store Sales Turn Positive

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The International Council of Shopping Centers posted a quiet bit of positive economic news today. The ICSC posts retailers' same-store sales data regularly every Tuesday, and for the longest time now the group has offered mostly bad news. However, today, the data tracker noted a pleasant little change in trend.

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ICSC Weekly Same-Store Sales

As we search our economic garden for "green shoots" like those described by our resident green thumb, Benjamin Bernanke, we think we're seeing the start of a stalk of sorts poking through the barren earth. Perhaps more than most, we keep a close tab on the weekly same-store sales data reported by the International Council of Shopping Centers. We find it a useful indicator of consumer spending, and of sentiment generally.

Over the course of the past few years, we've tracked the pace of sales as it declined from above a 4% rate, downward to below 2% and finally into contraction as the economy collapsed. However, being the optimists we are (and contrarians), we have also remained confident that sales would have to eventually recover. After all, population growth in and of itself is a steadying keel against a wavering tide. As the government has poured billions upon trillions into spurring economic revival, the inevitable had to, and is, finally occurring in the form of sales.

Still, today's sign of economic stabilization tread softly into the forum, so you may have missed her. The ICSC reported that same-store sales rose 0.3% for the week ended on May 9th. That compared against similar sequential growth in the prior week period. The more notable point, however, comes when comparing against prior year sales levels.

Week Ending

Weekly Change

Yearly Change

May 9

+0.3%

+0.5%

May 2

+0.3%

+0.5%

April 25

-0.7%

-1.7%

April 18

-0.4%

-0.1%

April 11

+0.8%

-0.4%

April 4

+0.6%

-0.3%

Same-store sales increased 0.5% for the week through May 9 when comparing against last year's total. In fact, sales have risen two weeks in a row now when comparing against the prior year tally. That's saying something folks. That's saying the economy is stabilizing.

There comes a point in consumption demand where bottom is bottom. This economy will consume, and so an inevitable base point seems to have finally been reached. Growth appears ready to ensue. This trend in the numbers, however early it may be to call it a trend, is simply another one of those signs we've been seeing all around us, or green shoots if you will... The economy appears to be stabilizing.

We'll have a follow up report on Wall Street Greek in the next day or two discussing the dynamics of retail sales.