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Tuesday, March 24, 2009

Today: House Testimony of Geithner & Bernanke Marquees

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house testimony of geithner bernanke aig
wall street the greek writer famous chiosToday's business news summary highlights the most important news of the day. Secretary Geithner and Chairman Bernanke survived their grilling at the hands of the House Financial Services Committee. It made for must see TV, and certainly boosted interest in financial networks today. We also had a few interesting economic reports, international releases and corporate news drivers to fill our appetite and yours. Enjoy...

(Stocks: AIG, DB, WSM, DIA, DOG, SPY, SDS, QQQQ, QLD, M, TGT)

House Testimony of Geithner and Bernanke

The testimony of Treasury Secretary Geithner and Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke before the House Financial Services Committee lived up to its billing, and then some. You see there was a new aspect added to the regular Congressional grandstanding and government agent persecution. This time around, there was Timothy Geithner, by whose testimony we could assuredly assume is more than a little peeved by his public flogging.

Geithner came out firing with a gnarly opening statement. His teeth were clenched, his scorn apparent. He would have none of it! He defended the appointed CEO of AIG (NYSE: AIG), Edward Lilly, and he would not persecute his forerunner Hank Paulson when fed the bullets to do him in as well. Bernanke complied on that one, as he noted Paulson did not follow through with toxic asset clean up, as Bernanke likely wished he did.

The studious seemingly subservant (read wise) Bernanke was his usual bulletproof. We are sure here that Benjamin was inwardly chuckling at the regular asinine and sometimes ignorant questioning. Today he even responded smartly to the inquiry, "Why won't one of you just answer yes or no!" with the response "The question was poorly posed." The calmness with which Bernanke approaches these events and answers questions, now that he's been seasoned, exposes his own self-confidence in his intellectual superiority over the group of misfits. This understanding has allowed him to take increasingly greater portions of power for his Fed, with which, by the way, he has been fully entrusted by Congress (excluding Ron Paul and his Internet army).

The market was neither reassured by nor disheartened with the testimonies, and for good reason. Not much came of it, and after last week's rally it seemed the meeting only offered risk. The Dow Jones Industrials, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all came out of the meeting relatively unchanged.

AIG Bonuses Coming Home

After a pseudo-threat by New York District Attorney Cuomo, where he stated that he would only publish the names of the AIG (NYSE: AIG) executives who did not return their bonuses, 15 of 20 of them decided the money wasn't worth the hassle. Who can blame the poor chaps, with death threats made upon their families and homes. Protesters have been extremely effective at reminding the brazen bosses just whose money it is they have stolen. I just hope they don't try to go on welfare now too. God bless America!

Economic Report Analysis

State Street Investor Confidence Index

Coming into this report, we expected recent market rise would inspire increased investor confidence. However, the measure for March showed a slight slippage to 70.0, from 72.9 in February. Recall that February's measure reflected a sharp jump from a depressed level in January. This measure tallies investor confidence by considering portfolio risk taking.

ICSC Weekly Same-Store Sales

We suspect weekly same-store sales will improve with the sprouting of flowers and lower long rates. However, over the week ended March 21st sales fell 0.4% from the prior week and 1.4% when compared to the prior year period. The rate of decline is going to be volatile through the month of March, when weather is unpredictable. Don't forget, we are comparing against another volatile period in last March, so we have two tricky figures to take into account. The monthly measure might better reflect any seasonal euphoria. Still, I boldly predict a warming trend for North America through the next few months, and that along with the receipt of tax refunds should give seasonal boost to the week-to-week measure. Smart store consolidation might provide a second impetus for same-store sales, which measures stores open at least a year. Imagine what happens to this barometer when operators cut out poor performing locations from the measurement. Still, we do not want to ignore the overwhelming impact of rising unemployment and the tough treading it provides for the greater industry.

Overseas News Drivers

China Proposes One World Currency

What!?! That's what I said when I saw this headline. Relax Revelation revelers! It's not over yet! While the reintroduction of this idea raises my unibrow, I realize the probability of it occurring, over the next ten years at least, is slim to none. Too many of the world's greatest powers use the dollar and hold great stockpiles of it. But wait... China fits that mold... So what gives then? We'll explore this topic in a follow up article. For now, it's safe to say that one world currency concept is fantasy, but only until something really bad happens to America. Even then, other powers would see their own currencies strengthen, and would be less likely to want to dilute them by mixing with the other class (as he raises his nose).

Bank of Japan Statements

The Bank of Japan published its February meeting minutes, but published a much more interesting note along with it. The second article made public Japan's expectations for 2009 and beyond.

The Bank of Japan, dealing with already rock bottom key rates and having learned the hard way how effective quantitative easing can be, is basically doing many of the things our Federal Reserve has undertaken. The boldness of action may not be as Americanized (we do everything in a big way here), but the likelihood of intensification is increasingly possible as the world adopts the American government's standard.

Within the minutes reflecting the meeting discussion, BOJ members expressed views for economic recovery as early as this year. However, confidence in those beliefs were limited, as "uncertainty" was clearly expressed.

The BOJ published a second strategy report that replaces its standing Medium-Term Strategic Framework for Fiscal 2005-2009. The report, entitled "The Bank of Japan's Strategic Priorities for Fiscal 2009-2011," outlines just that. For lack of resources and time today, we leave it to you to peruse via this link.

U.K. Inflation Hot

The broad CPI inflation measure rose in February, confounding government officials and surprising analysts. Headline CPI rose to 3.2% in February, while analysts had been looking for 2.6% to 3.0%. The rate of price change stood well-above the government's target of 2.0%, forcing a letter of explanation. Blame mostly went to currency impact, and government hopes lie tied to lower oil and commodity prices feeding through to end products. That's not dissimilar to American expectations, though look to our article on inflation later this week to provide a different viewpoint.

Corporate News Drivers

Credit Suisse & Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB)

Catching the fever from the rise in U.S. banks, Credit Suisse (NYSE: CS) and Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB) looked through their own books closely enough to produce positive outlook statements. The saying goes, a day late and a dollar short... CS shares fell 9% and DB sank 4%, but the broader financial sector also fell today (NYSE: XLF dropped 5%). Maybe these two sly Europeans were holding on to their bullets for this particular day, perhaps hoping it might keep their shares aloft... In any event, it did not help differentiate them, since broader issues are driving the entire sector over recent trading days.

Williams-Sonoma

Surprise surprise! Household goods retailer Williams-Sonoma (NYSE: WSM) reported its profits fell 90% versus the prior year comparable. Surprise surprise, WSM shares actually climbed approximately 6% today, before settling in up about 1.6%! Here's why...

Despite 27% shorter sales of home decor, before nonrecurring items, the store reported EPS of $0.31. That compared against analyst expectations for $0.16. After the charges, WSM earned $0.12, which was inconsequential to analysts who look at operating (ongoing) results. Without having heard the conference call, I assume Williams-Sonoma benefited to a greater extent than expected from swift store closings and layoffs. Same-store sales were pathetic, though expected that way, falling 22%.

The stock is down about 58% or so over the past 52 weeks, so today's glory is better looked at as recovered lost ground. Shareholders are likely thrilled their company, whose business is so tied to housing, is still profitable and providing a dividend yield of about 4.5% or so. That's reason enough to celebrate these days.

EPS Schedule

The day's EPS schedule highlights news from Macy's (NYSE: M), Target (NYSE: TGT), Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB), Ares Maritime Transport (Nasdaq: RAMS), American Bio Medica (Nasdaq: ABMC), American Medical Alert (Nasdaq: AMAC), Carnival Corp. (NYSE: CCL), China Telecom (NYSE: CHA), ChipMOS Technologies (Nasdaq: IMOS), Comforce (AMEX: CFS), Commercial Metals (NYSE: CMC), Communication Systems (Nasdaq: JCS), Companhia de Saneamento Basico (NYSE: SBS), Compton Petroleum (NYSE: CMZ), Great Basin Gold (AMEX: GBG), Jabil Circuit (NYSE: JBL), Langer (Nasdaq: GAIT), McCormick & Co. (NYSE: MKC), MDRNA, Inc. (Nasdaq: MRNA), Proliance (AMEX: PLI), Proxim Wireless (Nasdaq: PRXM), Robbins & Myers (NYSE: RBN), Taseko Mines (AMEX: TGB), Universal Power Group (AMEX: UPG) and Williams-Sonoma (NYSE: WSM).

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Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. (Article interests: AMEX: DIA, AMEX: SPY, Nasdaq: QQQQ, NYSE: NYX, AMEX: DOG, AMEX: SDS, AMEX: QLD, AMEX: XLF, AMEX: IWM, AMEX: TWM, AMEX: IWD, AMEX: SDK).

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