This Week: SAINT Patrick's Day

By Markos N. Kaminis - Economy & Markets:

Visit the front pages of Wall Street Greek and Market Moving News to see our current coverage of economic reports and financial markets.

Happy Saint Patrick's Day to ya! You'll be surprised to learn though that St. Patty did not invent beer... nor did he wander the streets all day long enebriated... nor did he violate laws that prohibit pubic urination... also he did not get into brawls with others for the slightest of reasons.

No, Saint Patrick was actually a saint, meaning he lived an exemplary and pious life, and performed great wonders by the will of God and the power of the Holy Spirit. Ever heard of such things? Can you imagine such fantasy? (Sarcasm!)

Greek! You mean the parade was not created to celebrate being Irish or pseudo-Irish? You're saying it's about a man who did great things like force Paganism out from a nation? If I wasn't talking to myself, I would respond, "well yes!"

I ask you to please at least consider reading his story before you down your first green beverage of the day. You might even visit a church between rounds and offer the Saint a prayer of appreciation.

We here in Manhattan have a wonderful parade full of Irish (and Scottish) bands blowing horns and creating a wondrous scene. "The Greek" admits to partaking in a beer or two or three in years past, but let's not forget that for pious Christians, we are still in the period of the Great Lent. Undoubtedly, five of you will now cancel your email subscriptions though another five of you will commend me for reminding folks of the "good story" behind a blessed saint and the modern day tarnishing of his memory by a society full of self-interest.

This Week

Monday

We covered Monday's schedule in a separate article found here.

Tuesday

Erin Go Bragh! Happy Saint Patrick's Day to ya!

Expect one of those days when C-SPAN steals the show, at least until the news coverage of St. Patrick's punks gone wild comes on. The House Financial Services Committee will hold a hearing on the regulation of systemic risk. Recall that the first time around the inquisition table, these committees had a field day with the "criminal" activity (quoting Dennis Kucinich, my new favorite perennial presidential candidate), of the rating agencies et al.

Monday's Housing Market Index showed builder sentiment remained dreadful in March, and on Tuesday morning we'll receive Housing Starts. Starts data has reflected the harsh economic environment of deteriorating labor, depressed builders, tightened lending and saturated inventory. Both December and January saw the pace of starts decline sharply (mid-teens rate). Bloomberg's consensus of economists surveyed forecasts a reasonable ease from that pace for February, to 450K starts, versus 466 in January. Building Permits are seen at 500K.

The latest pricing data will become available Tuesday at 8:30 when February's Producer Price Index (PPI) is reported. Despite all the deflationary data we've seen from other sources, commodity price dive has not fully worked its way through the system. As you might imagine, producers of goods at various levels are slower to adjust pricing lower than they are to adjust upward. Besides, a big bunch of economists and COOs expect commodity prices to recover mightily soon enough.

Bloomberg's consensus is looking for a month-over-month increase of 0.4% on headline PPI, and a 0.1% Core PPI rise. "Core" data adjusts out volatile food and energy prices. On a year-to-year basis, economists are looking for a 0.1% Headline price increase and a 3.8% Core price rise. Now that energy prices have stabilized (sort of), there's much less fluctuation in the monthly numbers.

It's Tuesday, and that means ICSC weekly same-store sales data is due. We actually saw sales rise last week on a month-to-month comparison (+0.2%). The year-to-year change measured down 0.9%. (Here he goes again) Of course, if you have been reading "The Greek's Week Ahead," you expected the sales gain. After all, we set the table for within that article. We told you to expect it, because of the unseasonably warm weather that week, and also on the foot traffic we noticed in our neck of the woods (loaded with "hubbies carrying little pink bags" from every lady's favorite shops).

Tuesday's earnings schedule includes news from A.D.A.M. Inc. (Nasdaq: ADAM), AAR Corp. (NYSE: AIR), Adobe Systems (Nasdaq: ADBE), Anthracite Capital (NYSE: AHR), Astro-Med (Nasdaq: ALOT), Canadian Solar (Nasdaq: CSIQ), Clean Diesel Technologies (Nasdaq: CDTI), Environmental Power (Nasdaq: EPG), FactSet (NYSE: FDS), Federal Agricultural Mortgage (NYSE: AGM), Guess (NYSE: GES), Henan Zhongpin Food (Nasdaq: HOGS), ICOP Digital (Nasdaq: ICOP), Intelli-Check (AMEX: IDN), MCF Corp. (Nasdaq: MERR), MGM Mirage (NYSE: MGM), National Bank of Greece (NYSE: NBG), New Gold Inc. (AMEX: NGD), Nortech Systems (Nasdaq: NSYS), OMNOVA Solutions (NYSE: OMN), Pomeroy IT Solutions (Nasdaq: PMRY), Retaliz (Nasdaq: RTLX), Schiff Nutrition (NYSE: WNI), SteelCloud (Nasdaq: SCLD), Stillwater Mining (NYSE: SWC), Tecumseh Products (Nasdaq: TECUA), Ultrapetrol (Nasdaq: ULTR), Vaalco Energy (NYSE: EGY), WPCS Int'l (Nasdaq: WPCS) and X-Rite (Nasdaq: XRIT).

Wednesday

All eyes on the Fed? For what? What more can they do? At 2:15, Bernanke's Fed will announce its monetary policy decision, but the activity seems likely to be a nonstarter. However, give this guy enough time, and we're sure he'll surprise us with some ingenious new tool or means of economic stimulation. The word is the Fed might announce a plan to purchase government and agency securities as a means of further trimming mortgage rates. The Bank of Japan also has its monetary policy decision planned for Wednesday, but rates have been near zero there for a long time now. Maybe they'll cut by a hundred-thousandth of a point or something... In merry old England, Prime Minister Gordon Brown hosts an economic recovery conference for business leaders. In Northern Ireland, perhaps St. Patrick will serve up another miracle.

Following up the PPI, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is due on Wednesday morning at 8:30. Similarly to PPI, prices are still rising at the consumer level. The Headline CPI is forecast to have grown 0.3% during the February period, matching January's increase. Core CPI is expected to increase 0.1% in February, versus the 0.2% increase found in January. Also at 8:30, look for the Q4 Current Account Deficit to measure $136.7 billion, give or take a billion.

Wednesday brings its regular data from the EIA and MBA. Oil inventories are due at 10:30, and last week's report showed an increase 749,000 barrels to supply. With OPEC's rumored cut exposed now as a bluff (like we said it would be a few times over the past week) all oil pit eyes are purely focused on this data and on signs of economic turn. OPEC will still do its best to move the market, perhaps with some nominal action that may carry headline appeal. The group is holding a seminar in Vienna Wednesday on the future of energy, and this might serve as opportunity to blow more smoke. The Mortgage Bankers Association reports on weekly application activity in the pre-market. Last week, rates backtracked and mortgage activity promptly improved.

Public Service Enterprise (NYSE: PEG) and Assurant (NYSE: AIZ) are both holding analyst meetings Wednesday. The day's earnings slate includes Actuant Corp. (NYSE: ATU), Charming Shoppes (Nasdaq: CHRS), ChinaEdu (Nasdaq: CEDU), Cintas (Nasdaq: CTAS), CLARCOR (NYSE: CLC), Darden Restaurants (NYSE: DRI), General Mills (NYSE: GIS), Herman Miller (Nasdaq: MLHR), IHS (NYSE: IHS), Linktone (Nasdaq: LTON), Luby's (NYSE: LUB), Newtek Business Services (Nasdaq: NEWT), Nike (NYSE: NKE), Oracle (Nasdaq: ORCL), Paragon Shipping (Nasdaq: PRGN), Presstek Inc. (Nasdaq: PRST), Shamir Optical (Nasdaq: SHMR), Somanetics (Nasdaq: SMTS), Towerstream (Nasdaq: TWER) and Wimm-Bill-Dann Foods (NYSE: WBD).

Thursday

In the pre-market, look for the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims data to range near prior week levels, at least according to economists' expectations. Forecasters are looking for new claims to amount to 654K, which would exactly match last week's level. Based on the common proximity of the forecast each week to the prior week level, I do not believe many economists are employing very scientific modeling for this data (as outlined in the past - Guinness commercial "BRILLIANT!" here). Any weekly measure covers such a short span that it could be tough to handicap. However, a proper bead on corporate reports combined with a model measuring small business rates of attrition etc. etc. might do the trick; but would it be worth the effort...

February's Leading Economic Indicators are set for 10:00 a.m. release. Economists expect the LEI to break from its recent trend of increase (December, January), and to decline by 0.6% in February. The economy has hit the skids, but the LEI seeks to mark forward looking signs. Still, the past two months of improvement were illusory by the view of some eyes, as the driver was government substance abuse (I'm just having fun is all - I appreciate stimulus). The growth in money supply, thanks to the Fed, Treasury and Congressional action, was the key catalyst in months past. While the government action has been swift and heavy, there's no telling for sure how "special" this current economic strife really is or when stimulus will gain traction.

The Philly Fed Survey is seen bouncing slightly in March to -38.0, from -41.3 in February. As is, LEI has been approaching levels seen during the "Saddam Sell-Off" of the early '90s. Earlier in the week, we saw the New York region's version of this data deteriorate further. Don't get your hopes up for the Philly data...

C-SPAN time again! When they turn your cable off, you'll be happy to discover you still have C-SPAN, a channel you never considered watching before... You'll find the call in questions offer better comedy than Leno's writers can muster, and you'll discover administration representatives more ridiculous than any SNL skit. Reality is the best comedy...

On Thursday, the Senate Banking Committee takes on the topic of bank supervision (expect an expansion of "banking" to include all financial institutions. Don't blame me though! It's all AIG's (NYSE: AIG) fault. EIA's Natural Gas Report is due at 10:30.

Thursday's earnings slate includes FedEx (NYSE: FDX), 3Com (Nasdaq: COMS), GNC Corp. (NYSE: GNC), Alloy (Nasdaq: ALOY), Barnes & Noble (NYSE: BKS), Blockbuster (NYSE: BBI), Books-A-Million (Nasdaq: BAMM), Brown & Co. (NYSE: BNE), Casual Male Retail Group (Nasdaq: CMRG), China Sunergy (Nasdaq: CSUN), Cost Plus (Nasdaq: CPWM), CRA Int'l (Nasdaq: CRAI), Discover Financial Services (NYSE: DFS), Electroglas (Nasdaq: EGLS), Elixir Gaming (AMEX: EGT), ICX Technologies (Nasdaq: ICXT), Neogen (Nasdaq: NEOG), Neurogen (Nasdaq: NRGN), New York & Co. (NYSE: NWY), NTN Buzztime (AMEX: NTN), Palm (Nasdaq: PALM), Perry Ellis (Nasdaq: PERY), Photomedex (Nasdaq: PHMD), Progress Software (Nasdaq: PRGS), Prudential (NYSE: PUK), Ross Stores (Nasdaq: ROST), Select Comfort (Nasdaq: SCSS), Shoe Carnival (Nasdaq: SCVL), Stein Mart (Nasdaq: SMRT), The Cato Corp. (NYSE: CTR), The Children's Place (Nasdaq: PLCE), The Exploration Co. (Nasdaq: TXCO), The Marcus Corp. (NYSE: MCS), Ticketmaster (Nasdaq: TKTM), Tsakos Energy Navigation (NYSE: TNP), Ulta Salon (Nasdaq: ULTA) and Winnebago (NYSE: WGO).

Friday

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke addresses the Independent Community Bankers of America Convention in Phoenix, and Sheila Bair will be on hand to help out. BTW, we love her here. We even offered her name up for Treasury Secretary, but nobody heard us. You can catch the speeches at 12:00 p.m., and we expect that because of the dearth of scheduled news for Friday, this could be covered live by Bloomberg Radio.

Mexico's central bank is expected to cut rates by a quarter point. Japanese markets are closed for the start of spring. Potential investors must express interest in Satyam Computer by Friday. The earnings slate includes news from Ares Maritime Transport (Nasdaq: RAMS), Companhia Paranaese De Energia (NYSE: ELP) and Kirland's (Nasdaq: KIRK).


Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. (Article interests: AMEX: DIA, AMEX: SPY, Nasdaq: QQQQ, NYSE: NYX, AMEX: DOG, AMEX: SDS, AMEX: QLD, AMEX: XLF, AMEX: IWM, AMEX: TWM, AMEX: IWD, AMEX: SDK).