Week Ahead: What Now?

By The Greek - Economy & Markets:

Visit the front pages of Wall Street Greek and Market Moving News to see our current coverage of economic reports and financial markets.

Remember the old Alka Seltzer commercial that went "Plop plop, fizz fizz, oh what a relief it is?" If you're my age, you may have forgotten it, and if the demographics of blog readership are bottom-heavy, you may have never seen it. The old commercial campaign was probably one of the more successful of its time... at least it worked for me, since I'm still quoting it decades later.

Anyway, the product was supposed to settle an unsettled stomach... Likewise, we were hoping last week's fiscal stimulus and TARP double plop would offer some fizz to economic hopes and settle the stock market, but there was just more plop. It went "plop plop..." followed by awkward silence. The market was decidedly underwhelmed by the Treasury Secretary's less than inspirational debut, and the fiscal stimulus bill (to be signed into law on Tuesday) waited all night for an awkward last vote from a Congressperson who was out of town attending the wake of a close relative! It was sad, and at the same time horribly ironic. Let's hope it was not symbolic of the bill's future impact on the economy. This DC sitcom we call economic restoration leaves us dumbfounded and confused (be merciful). Only California lawmakers, in a marathon session, could outdo the drama in DC.

A lurking question haunts us now that these great stimulative actions have been approved, and while auto bailout seems also likely to get its second wind this week... "What are we supposed to do now?" Unfortunately, an increasing number of us are left twiddling our thumbs, staring at the phone and deciding whether to watch The View or walk the dog. I'll try to get some more comedy to you folks, before you OD on the TV!

The Week Ahead

Monday

President's Day, the national holiday that saves us celebrating each individual president's birthday (which would be nice), also closes the U.S. markets. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton arrived in Tokyo, Japan for the start of her Asian tour. She'll be visiting several Asian nations, including Indonesia, making this the first time a Secretary of State has visited a Muslim nation on her first foreign trip. Seeing Asia before Europe is also a first, and we are reading into both. Unfortunately, the Chief Financial Officer of Japan was forced to resign after appearing out of sorts in a public speaking engagement. It's a must see on Youtube, and we'll try to post it to Market Moving News for you. The only thing that might have improved it would have been a Joe Namath like kiss attempt upon one Hillary Clinton!

Holiday shortened weeks play havoc with the normal scheduling of economic data, so check back to see if we've revised anything after the publishing of this report. The holiday offers a shortened earnings schedule, including news from Aaron Rents (NYSE: RNT), BancTrust (Nasdaq: BTFG), Brown & Brown (NYSE: BRO), CEC Entertainment (NYSE: CEC), Chemed (NYSE: CHE), Energy Transfer Partners (NYSE: ETP), FMC Technologies (NYSE: FTI), Global Crossing (Nasdaq: GLBC), Hauppauge Digital (Nasdaq: HAUP), Wabash National (NYSE: WNC) and Walter Industries (NYSE: WLT).

Tuesday

Tuesday is a busy day off-Wall Street, as the President signs his fiscal stimulus bill into law up in the Rocky Mountains of Colorado. Tuesday also marks a key deadline for General Motors (NYSE: GM) and Chrysler. It's the day the two bailout recipients must let the government know how things are going, and whether they're on track with the plan. All signs point toward the realization of our prediction; Obama will continue to fund Detroit whether they've kept up with plan or not. Who's the loser? Maybe Ford (NYSE: F) is, since it's forced to deal with its unions without the impetus and criticism of angry Congressmen all in their business. My contacts at Ford seem prepared for the worst nonetheless.

The New York Fed, formerly run by Treasury Chief Geithner, publishes its Empire State Manufacturing Survey Tuesday at 8:30. The February measure, forecast at -22.0, is expected to be similar to January's -22.2. It's a sad state of affairs no matter how you look at it, but January's report was noteworthy because of the dip of the 6-month outlook into negative territory.

The Treasury International Capital Report is due at 9:00. The TIC Report tracks the flow of funds to and from the U.S. The November data, reported in January, showed a net outflow of $21.7 billion of net long-term securities ($1.5 billion inflow in October). State Street's (NYSE: STT) Investor Confidence Index, due at 10:00 a.m., rose 12.1 points in January, as investors allocated more funds to riskier assets.

In the afternoon, at 1:00 p.m., the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reports its Housing Market Index for February. The metric reached a new low of 8 in January, as homebuilders' sentiment is the lowest in history. Signs of housing life have been found, but exclusively in the existing market. The President of the St. Louis Fed, James Bullard, is scheduled to address the National Association of Business Economists. There's always the potential for a market-moving quote from these speaking engagements of the Fed Board.

Sirius XM (Nasdaq: SIRI) could file for bankruptcy, as it has a debt payment due Tuesday to the Dish Network's CEO (Nasdaq: DISH). Sirius was talking to DirectTV (Nasdaq: DTV) as recently as last week, and now Liberty Media is rumored to have a possible interest.

General Mills (NYSE: GIS) has an analyst meeting scheduled, while the earnings slate highlights news from Abraxas Petroleum (Nasdaq: AXAS), Agilent Tech (NYSE: A), Amedisys (Nasdaq: AMED), American Medical (Nasdaq: AMMD), Arbitron (NYSE: ARB), Arch Capital (Nasdaq: ACGL), Axsys Technologies (Nasdaq: AXYS), Celera (NYSE: CRA), Conceptus (Nasdaq: CPTS), Daimler (NYSE: DAI), Fossil (Nasdaq: FOSL), FreightCar America (Nasdaq: RAIL), Gen-Probe (Nasdaq: GPRO), Genuine Parts (NYSE: GPC), Georgia Gulf (NYSE: GGC), Gilat Satellite (Nasdaq: GILT), Halifax (NYSE: HX), Holly (NYSE: HOC), Hospira (NYSE: HSP), Investors Title (Nasdaq: ITIC), IPC Holdings (Nasdaq: IPCR), Jack in the Box (Nasdaq: JACK), Kaiser Aluminum (Nasdaq: KALU), Koppers (NYSE: KOP), La-Z-Boy (NYSE: LZB), MannKind (Nasdaq: MNKD), Medtronic (NYSE: MDT), Montpelier Re (NYSE: MRH), Noah Education (NYSE: NED), Onstream Media (Nasdaq: ONSM), Republic Airways (Nasdaq: RJET), Rick's Cabaret (Nasdaq: RICK), StatoilHydro (NYSE: STO), Tanger Factory Outlet (NYSE: SKT), Teva Pharma (Nasdaq: TEVA), The Navigators Group (Nasdaq: NAVG), Transocean (NYSE: RIG), Ultra Petroleum (NYSE: UPL), Valassis Communications (NYSE: VCI), Valmont (NYSE: VMI), Voltaire (Nasdaq: VOLT), Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), Zebra Tech (Nasdaq: ZBRA) and more.

Wednesday

A second reading on housing comes Wednesday at 8:30 with the Housing Starts data for January. The annual pace is forecast to back off December's surprising strength of 550,000. Bloomberg's consensus of economists sees starts running at a pace of 530,000 in January.

January's Import and Export Prices Report is also due at 8:30. With the oil price slide from July running out of fuel, you might expect import prices to ease off their recent dive. Indeed, Bloomberg's consensus sees January prices slipping only 1.4% this time, versus 4.2% in December. Export prices should also slacken on economic decline and commodity price ease.

When reported at 9:15, Industrial Production is expected to have fallen another 1.5% in January, after falling 2.0% in December. Capacity Utilization is forecast to narrow further, to 72.5%, from 73.6% in December. No surprises here, though there's hope the bleeding might be slowed or stopped as fiscal stimulus starts to trickle through to the real economy. Caterpillar's (NYSE: CAT) CEO was enthused for one, at least until Obama left, and then he said he would be likely to cut more jobs before hiring new employees.

Look for the regular ICSC Weekly Same-Store Sales data in the premarket as well. Last week's data showed sales fell 1.8% versus the year before. Troubled department store, J.C. Penney (NYSE: JCP) reports earnings late in the week, and it might be disastrous. The Mortgage Bankers Association's Purchase Applications data is due Wednesday as well, while the Federal Reserve and Bank of England each publish the minutes of their most recent meetings; the Fed release is due at 2:00 p.m.

At high noon, Fed Chairman Bernanke, fresh back from Rome and the G7, addresses the National Press Club in Washington. The EIA's Petroleum Status Report might not be released at its usual time on Wednesday, perhaps being pushed to Thursday, but the API is scheduled to publish its oil industry report.

The day's earnings schedule highlights news from Advance Auto Parts (NYSE: AAP), Agnico-Eagle Mines (NYSE: AEM), Analog Devices (NYSE: ADI), Arbor Realty Trust (NYSE: ABR), Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU), Biomarin Pharma (Nasdaq: BMRN), Blue Nile (Nasdaq: NILE), Brandywine Realty Trust (NYSE: BDN), Brink's Home Security (NYSE: CFL), Cal Dive Int'l (NYSE: DVR), CBS Corp. (NYSE: CBS), Cimarex Energy (NYSE: XEC), Comcast (Nasdaq: CMCSA), Constellation Energy (NYSE: CEG), CoStar (Nasdaq: CSGP), Deere & Co. (NYSE: DE), Denny's (Nasdaq: DENN), Dollar Thrifty (NYSE: DTG), Donegal Group (Nasdaq: DGICA), Dress Barn (Nasdaq: DBRN), ExpressJet (NYSE: XJT), First Mercury Fin'l (NYSE: FMR), Gentiva (Nasdaq: GTIV), Goodyear Tire (NYSE: GT), Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ), ING Groep (NYSE: ING), Inverness Medical Innovations (NYSE: IMA), IRIS Int'l (Nasdaq: IRIS), JAKKS Pacific (Nasdaq: JAKK), Kinross Gold (NYSE: KGC), Lojack (Nasdaq: LOJN), National Interstate (Nasdaq: NATL), Nationwide Health Properties (NYSE: NHP), Navios Maritime (NYSE: NM), Northeast Utilities (NYSE: NU), NutriSystem (Nasdaq: NTRI), O'Reilly Automotive (Nasdaq: ORLY), Oceaneering Int'l (NYSE: OII), OfficeMax (NYSE: OMX), Owens Corning (NYSE: OC), Pan American Silver (Nasdaq: PAAS), Playboy (NYSE: PLA), Priceline (Nasdaq: PCLN), Rogers Communications (NYSE: RCI), Skechers (NYSE: SKX), Synopsys (Nasdaq: SNPS), Trinity Industries (NYSE: TRN), Whole Foods (Nasdaq: WFMI) and more.

Thursday

Before the sun rises in the West, the Bank of Japan will have already announced new measures to stabilize the Japanese economy. In the States, President Obama leaves for Canada to meet Prime Minister Harper for the first time as Chief North American. Canada gets a bad wrap, as The Greek can attest it's full of natural beauty and untapped resources. For instance, did you know that Pamela Anderson is from Canada?

In the early going on Thursday, two reports could come to play. Last week's jobless claims data was cool enough to kill any market heat that might have otherwise fired up on the TARP and stimulus plans. Jobless claims measured a whopping 623K last week, and the consensus foresees a similar read this time around (620K). As long as we are shedding jobs like an old second-hand rabbit fur coat, there shouldn't be any noteworthy speculation in stocks.

At 8:30, look for the PPI to show a rise for January, as the change in the direction of oil prices leads general prices higher. Headline PPI is forecast to rise 0.2% over December, though it will likely measure 2.1% lower on a year-to-year basis. Core Producer Prices are seen rising 0.1% month-to-month, and 3.8% year-to-year. Get this! Core prices benefited from improved auto prices last month.

Like the New York regional manufacturing index, the Philadelphia Fed Survey is expected to produce its General Business Conditions Index in miserable territory (-26.0). The result will compare against a similarly sad -24.3 in January. Pessimism is very high in manufacturing; actually it's wide spread at this point, but the makers of real goods are especially stressed.

The Leading Indicators Index (10:00 a.m.) is seen holding steady in January, after rising 0.3% in December. Recall the month was greatly impacted by unnatural drivers, however useful they may prove in the future. Excluding another increase in money supply, the data points toward severe recession in the near-term. The usual EIA Natural Gas Report could be pushed to Friday this week.

Cooper Industries (NYSE: CBE) will hold its annual investor webcast event, and the earnings schedule highlights news from Advance America (NYSE: AEA), Amerigroup (NYSE: AGP), AmSurg (Nasdaq: AMSG), Answers (Nasdaq: ANSW), Apache (NYSE: APA), Barnes (NYSE: B), Brocade Communications (Nasdaq: BRCD), Bucyrus Int'l (Nasdaq: BUCY), Build-A-Bear (NYSE: BBW), Builder's FirstSource (Nasdaq: BLDR), Cabela's (NYSE: CAB), Career Education (Nasdaq: CECO), CenturyTel (NYSE: CTL), Community Health Systems (NYSE: CYH), Chiquita (NYSE: CQB), Crocs (Nasdaq: CROX), CVS Caremark (NYSE: CVS), Diana Shipping (NYSE: DSX), Ditech (Nasdaq: DITC), Eldorado Gold (AMEX: EGO), Expedia (Nasdaq: EXPE), Fairfax Fin'l (NYSE: FFH), Goldcorp (NYSE: GG), Group 1 Automotive (NYSE: GPI), Harleysville Group (Nasdaq: HGIC), Home Properties (NYSE: HME), Hormel (NYSE: HRL), Hornbeck Offshore (NYSE: HOS), Idacorp (NYSE: IDA), Interactive Data (NYSE: IDC), Intuit (Nasdaq: INTU), Kindred Healthcare (NYSE: KND), Morningstar (Nasdaq: MORN), Mylan (NYSE: MYL), Newmont Mining (NYSE: NEM), Noble Energy (NYSE: NBL), Nordson (Nasdaq: NDSN), Oil States Int'l (NYSE: OIS), OSI Pharma (Nasdaq: OSIP), Pool Corp. (Nasdaq: POOL), Pride Int'l (NYSE: PDE), Regal Entertainment (NYSE: RGC), Reliance Steel (NYSE: RS), Spartan Motors (Nasdaq: SPAR), Superior Energy (NYSE: SPN), Sycamore Networks (Nasdaq: SCMR), Tesoro (NYSE: TSO), TheStreet.com (Nasdaq: TSCM), TradeStation (Nasdaq: TRAD), VCA Antech (Nasdaq: WOOF), WebMD (Nasdaq: WBMD), Williams Cos. (NYSE: WMB) and more.

Friday

Friday keys the Consumer Price Index for January. Prices have held stubbornly on the consumer level. Headline CPI is forecast to rise 0.3% month-to-month, and fall short of the prior year by 0.2%, greatly due to energy price decline. Excluding food and energy, Core CPI is seen rising 0.1% month-to-month, and 1.5% on a yearly basis. We have talked about sticky prices in the past. The irony is that the sticky prices that stress consumers, comfort economists who are ever fearful of deflation.

Take note, Secretary of State Clinton is in Beijing on Friday, and this while Democrats are getting a bit nasty on the protectionist line of thought (not to mention the Greek - "Protectionism & Hypocrisy"). The earnings schedule highlights news from Anglo American (Nasdaq: AAUK), Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX), Brady Corp. (NYSE: BRC), Constellation Energy Partners (NYSE: CEP), HMS Holdings (Nasdaq: HMSY), J.C. Penney (NYSE: JCP), Kingsway Fin'l (NYSE: KFS), LifePoint Hospitals (Nasdaq: LPNT), Lowe's (NYSE: LOW), Pinnacle West (NYSE: PNW), Prudential PLC (NYSE: PUK), RTI Biologics (Nasdaq: RTIX), Standard Register (NYSE: SR), TC Pipelines (Nasdaq: TCLP) and TRW Auto (NYSE: TRW).

(Article interests: AMEX: DIA, AMEX: SPY, Nasdaq: QQQQ, NYSE: NYX, AMEX: DOG, AMEX: SDS, AMEX: QLD, AMEX: XLF, AMEX: IWM, AMEX: TWM, AMEX: IWD, AMEX: SDK). Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there.