A Furry Monster Employment Index

By The Greek - Wall Street

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Appropriately named today, Monster Worldwide's monthly index met its lowest point of the year in October. The level of 150 was a full ten points lower than September's reading and seven points below the prior low for 2008. The measure was also some 20% short of the prior year like period. This figure benefits from the migration of job postings from hard copy to web, but that did it little good this past month.

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The sharp drop-off in October can be attributed to economic reality, but also to fear. Firms are not only laying off employees due to the harsh economic realities of the day; no, even businesses that are still doing well are likely refraining from normal hiring due to concern and uncertainty. Monster Worldwide notes that the degree of decline in October could be an omen for a tough fourth quarter ahead.

The damage was widespread last month, as almost every industry, occupational category and geographic region experienced deterioration in online job availability. Even in pockets of strength, we can find reason to be wary of the future. The lonely three of twenty industry categories that saw improvement were mining, health care and government.

False Prophets

Energy is suppose to be a hot spot right? When economic demand slows though, short-term labor needs may slacken, even within the energy sector. President-Elect Obama promises to create jobs via the development of alternative energy resources, but those jobs don't look to spring up tomorrow. Offshore drilling doesn't look to fly soon either, with Democrats controlling Congress and with Obama in the Oval Office. Clearly though, this is one field that has bigger positive drivers to lift it up quickly from any short-term hit. After all, Chinese economic growth only slowed to 9+% at last check, and domestic needs in Emerging India and China seem sure to key long-term energy demand.

McCain and Obama are supposed to be for "clean coal," but that was probably mostly because of the swing states they needed to become president. Being realistic, the "clean coal" option seems far from a viable economic reality, due to carbon gas storage requirements and a likely high cost of production that would result. But hey, before you West Virginia, Western PA and Ohio voters (err readers) surf somewhere else, you should know that I am a coal fan. But I am one for a totally offbeat reason, and I plan an article shortly to tell you why. (NYSE: BTU, NYSE: BKH, NYSE: ACI)

Health care has major demographic help here in the aging U.S., but health care for all seems sure to cost somebody something; namely the firms providing it, insuring for it and making the drugs. In the pseudo-socialist Obama system that I love (since I'll be insured now), cost cutting must ensue to preserve margins in the competitive corporate world where shareholders demand returns. Thus, any cushy jobs that may exist today in the health care space could disappear tomorrow.

The other nook of strength in the October report was "government." Problem is, that's the same government Obama promises to "audit." The goal of that audit is to shut down "programs that don't work." But don't you fret, over the past few months we've taken so many firms under conservatorship that there must be a net win here. Besides, it seems certain Israel will take us into a conflict with Iran whether or not Obama has tea with Ahmadinejad, so there will be plenty of military work. Note: I voted for Obama, before you go on your tirade. Also, I'm for stopping Iranian nuclear development, one way or another.

Surprisingly, strength was actually found in one metro region, the city I left after graduate school, Pittsburgh. Shoot! And I was only paying $400 for a full floor of an apartment there, versus my tiny New York City space... Heck, I might be rich and happy now if I had stayed put! Still, baseball is a lot better in the eastern half of the state.

Of the 23 occupational categories measured, only one showed improvement. "Protective Service" noted an increase in job opportunity, but don't go applying to the police academy before you read further. When municipal budgets feel the hit from significantly lighter tax revenue, they will have to cut costs from somewhere. New York's own Michael Bloomberg had a press conference on November 5th to announce the changes in store for New York City. While you are correct to expect that crime increases when economic conditions soften, the NYPD will pass two more classes of cops and skip the next (or something like that) in order to save some dough. Cost cutting will lead municipalities nationwide to stall plans and programs, and to cut workforce. Still, maybe "protective service" opportunities will open up for those seeking employment in the hire of Congressmen, securities markets regulators and ex-Wall Street executives for obvious reasons...

States noting the most opportunity included Massachusetts, but that was before Fidelity Investments declared it would lay off 1,300 workers. Maryland ranked third, but there are an awful lot of government employees living there, so heads up.

In Conclusion

We didn't really learn much new from the Monster Index, though we had fun didn't we? Jobs are still toughest to come by in Real Estate and Construction. Seriously though, there are a few new dry holes, and they are concerning. Retail and hospitality & leisure are finally feeling the heat. The service sector drives America folks, especially now that Ford (NYSE: F) and General Motors (NYSE: GM) aren't selling cars. If (read when) we start losing jobs en masse in these areas, I think it will prove just as important to the economy as declining home prices did. These service-folks SNL likes to make fun of are spenders with little savings. If they're going to be out of work like me, well then we got a Democrat just in time. We're going to need a little hand out here and there. Pelosi is already talking about a few more rounds of "stimulus." Now watch out, and let me get me some of that cheese!


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