Monster Jobless Claims

Data offered a confusing message this morning regarding employment, so what gives? Weekly jobless claims displayed a weakening employment environment, but an important gauge of help wanted advertising showed a modest improvement for March.

(Stocks in this article: Nasdaq: MNST, AMEX: SPY, AMEX: DIA, Nasdaq: QQQQ, AMEX: SDS, AMEX: DOG, AMEX: QLD)

Employment Reports Mixed

Weekly Initial Jobless Claims

In the week ended March 29th, jobless claims jumped 38,000 to 407K. The four-week moving average, clearly a better measure of true trend, showed an increase of 4.4% as well. We've noticed the consensus estimate figures for the metric usually mirror the prior week level, so therefore, this result was quite a shocker. However, since consensus on the number is unreliable, we should be more concerned with the rise in the unemployed, rather than the difference between actual and estimated results. We are rapidly approaching levels consistent with recession, but we are not there yet. We will likely get there though, and not surprisingly in a lagging fashion to the realization of recession. Job losses usually follow tough times at corporations, which is one inefficiency that benefits the economy and your job security.

Monster Employment Index
Monster's (Nasdaq: MNST) measure for March showed improvement, marking two months in a row of contradiction to other employment metrics. Yesterday, Challenger's Job-Cut Report and the ADP Employment Report both offered relatively weak news. The set up going into tomorrow's Employment Report from the Labor Department is clearly one of deterioration in the unemployment rate, but the nonfarm payroll measure is up in the air. We expect to see further losses of jobs indicated in the report, but the extent of such losses may not accelerate from last month's report. Still, we advise not to get lost in the details; the trend is consistent with recession and that's what matters. If the extent of weakness of eye-catching, the market may reevaluate equity valuations.

Monster noted focus points of weakness in the Northeastern United States, within the financial services sector. However, it also noted that a great majority of industries found employment improvement in March, with some 16 of 20 industries showing greater online demand for jobs. Remember, the online category is benefiting from a still ongoing migration from print ad forum.

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