Petroleum Finds Geopolitical Supports
As the commodity markets laugh off the recession driver and push record levels, petroleum and other fuel sources are getting an extra incentive to rise today.
(Stocks in article: AMEX: VDE, AMEX: EDX, AMEX: SPY, AMEX: DIA, Nasdaq: QQQQ, AMEX: SDS, AMEX: DOG, AMEX: QLD, NYSE: GAS, NYSE: HUN, NYSE: RTP, NYSE: LYG, Nasdaq: NSANY, Nasdaq: SIRI, Nasdaq: XMSR, NYSE: NYT, Nasdaq: MSFT)
Yesterday, crude backed off of highs, as weekly petroleum inventory posted a build of 4.2 million barrels, compared to consensus expectations for an increase of 2.9 million, according to the Dow Jones Newswire. Wall Street Greek continues to expect economic recession in America and significant slowing of growth in Europe to eventually take hold of petroleum and other commodities. However, for now, capital flow rules the day.
Geopolitical Tensions Mount
"You picked a fine time to leave me Lucille..." The importance of Turkey to the EU and America is growing even more clear. Today, CNBC reported a U.S. senior official offered strong words of support for the Nabucco gas pipeline, which is slated to bring natural gas from the Caspian to Europe. The pipeline, which is planned to run through Turkey, is hoped to ease European reliance on Russia. Russia has been very busy over the past year or more in setting the European plate for its competing South Stream pipeline effort.
Here's the problem. We're playing around in Russia's backyard, and Russia plays dirty. Having experience and contacts in the Republic of Georgia, The Greek is well aware of the extent Russia is willing to go to get its way. Georgia's new government learned a tough lesson after adopting an anti-Russia stance. It soon found its largest export market closed to many products; its energy pipelines sabotaged in the midst of winter; and Russian pricing pressure regarding energy supply, again in winter. We almost forgot to mention Russia's expanded espionage effort in Georgia, and its recent attempt to overthrow the new government.
Turkey and Azerbaijan are not prepared to protect the pipeline to the extent that would be necessary. You can expect sabotage disguised as political upheaval to rule the lifeline of the planned pipeline. It's a shame that Kurds will likely bear the blame for Russian dirty tricks.
Turkey Negotiates from Position of Strength
Turkish troops crossed the Iraqi boarder today, but details of the military campaign are confused. Turkish officials have admitted to the deployment of two brigades, or 10,000 troops, while Iraqi and Kurd representatives seem to imply the Turks are overstating the incursion for propaganda purpose. It seems illogical for Turkey to mount a broad campaign now, in the middle of winter, through mountainous terrain. Propaganda is likely the motive devised to protect a smaller Turkish operation in Iraqi Kurdish territory.
Judging by its bold actions of the past, Turkey seems to understand its important position. It could gain entry into the EU, and perhaps without major concession as a result. Recent Greek and Bulgarian agreements with Russia in regard to South Stream perhaps offer some basis to believe it might not be so easy for Turkey. But the Germans, through experience, do not trust Russia supplying such a large portion of the region's energy. So, pressure or other incentive could drive the Greeks and Cypriots to give up some ground.
Greece is currently entangled in a quarrel with Skopje over its relatively recently adopted national name, The Republic of Macedonia, and its flag and constitution, which seem to lay claim to the Greek province of Macedonia. Perhaps Greece could be swayed in favor of Turkish entry if broader Europe were to support it in this matter. However, Greece is not likely to give up ground on the Cypriot issue, and the ongoing military presence of Turkey in Northern Cyprus. Nicosia remains Europe's last divided city, and sadly illustrates the contrast of political oppression against the fruit of freedom and capitalism that Cyprus represents.
Besides, Skopje is not alone in its coveting of Greek territory. Turkey has laid claim in the past to Greek islands that lie within the typical area that encompass national territorial waters. This of course does not apply to waters covering shorter distances that lie between national territories. However, Turkey stands on illogical ground when it suits it. It's very possible The Greek's ancestrial home would now be involved in conflict if not for the United Nations and the rule of law.
France, which is fueled mostly by nuclear energy, should continue to push Turkey for reform. France derives over 75% of its energy from nuclear. However, as energy sources prove even more scarce over time, broader Europe will have to make the decision that makes most strategic and economic sense.
We know our discussion here will drive interest in debate. Please use the comment box below the article on the site to do so. In this week's "Greek's Week Ahead" we anticipate covering the recent commodity price rise that exists despite economic recession. Please look for the article this weekend.
(Stocks in article: AMEX: VDE, AMEX: EDX, AMEX: SPY, AMEX: DIA, Nasdaq: QQQQ, AMEX: SDS, AMEX: DOG, AMEX: QLD, NYSE: GAS, NYSE: HUN, NYSE: RTP, NYSE: LYG, Nasdaq: NSANY, Nasdaq: SIRI, Nasdaq: XMSR, NYSE: NYT, Nasdaq: MSFT)
Yesterday, crude backed off of highs, as weekly petroleum inventory posted a build of 4.2 million barrels, compared to consensus expectations for an increase of 2.9 million, according to the Dow Jones Newswire. Wall Street Greek continues to expect economic recession in America and significant slowing of growth in Europe to eventually take hold of petroleum and other commodities. However, for now, capital flow rules the day.
Geopolitical Tensions Mount
"You picked a fine time to leave me Lucille..." The importance of Turkey to the EU and America is growing even more clear. Today, CNBC reported a U.S. senior official offered strong words of support for the Nabucco gas pipeline, which is slated to bring natural gas from the Caspian to Europe. The pipeline, which is planned to run through Turkey, is hoped to ease European reliance on Russia. Russia has been very busy over the past year or more in setting the European plate for its competing South Stream pipeline effort.
Here's the problem. We're playing around in Russia's backyard, and Russia plays dirty. Having experience and contacts in the Republic of Georgia, The Greek is well aware of the extent Russia is willing to go to get its way. Georgia's new government learned a tough lesson after adopting an anti-Russia stance. It soon found its largest export market closed to many products; its energy pipelines sabotaged in the midst of winter; and Russian pricing pressure regarding energy supply, again in winter. We almost forgot to mention Russia's expanded espionage effort in Georgia, and its recent attempt to overthrow the new government.
Turkey and Azerbaijan are not prepared to protect the pipeline to the extent that would be necessary. You can expect sabotage disguised as political upheaval to rule the lifeline of the planned pipeline. It's a shame that Kurds will likely bear the blame for Russian dirty tricks.
Turkey Negotiates from Position of Strength
Turkish troops crossed the Iraqi boarder today, but details of the military campaign are confused. Turkish officials have admitted to the deployment of two brigades, or 10,000 troops, while Iraqi and Kurd representatives seem to imply the Turks are overstating the incursion for propaganda purpose. It seems illogical for Turkey to mount a broad campaign now, in the middle of winter, through mountainous terrain. Propaganda is likely the motive devised to protect a smaller Turkish operation in Iraqi Kurdish territory.
Judging by its bold actions of the past, Turkey seems to understand its important position. It could gain entry into the EU, and perhaps without major concession as a result. Recent Greek and Bulgarian agreements with Russia in regard to South Stream perhaps offer some basis to believe it might not be so easy for Turkey. But the Germans, through experience, do not trust Russia supplying such a large portion of the region's energy. So, pressure or other incentive could drive the Greeks and Cypriots to give up some ground.
Greece is currently entangled in a quarrel with Skopje over its relatively recently adopted national name, The Republic of Macedonia, and its flag and constitution, which seem to lay claim to the Greek province of Macedonia. Perhaps Greece could be swayed in favor of Turkish entry if broader Europe were to support it in this matter. However, Greece is not likely to give up ground on the Cypriot issue, and the ongoing military presence of Turkey in Northern Cyprus. Nicosia remains Europe's last divided city, and sadly illustrates the contrast of political oppression against the fruit of freedom and capitalism that Cyprus represents.
Besides, Skopje is not alone in its coveting of Greek territory. Turkey has laid claim in the past to Greek islands that lie within the typical area that encompass national territorial waters. This of course does not apply to waters covering shorter distances that lie between national territories. However, Turkey stands on illogical ground when it suits it. It's very possible The Greek's ancestrial home would now be involved in conflict if not for the United Nations and the rule of law.
France, which is fueled mostly by nuclear energy, should continue to push Turkey for reform. France derives over 75% of its energy from nuclear. However, as energy sources prove even more scarce over time, broader Europe will have to make the decision that makes most strategic and economic sense.
We know our discussion here will drive interest in debate. Please use the comment box below the article on the site to do so. In this week's "Greek's Week Ahead" we anticipate covering the recent commodity price rise that exists despite economic recession. Please look for the article this weekend.
Market-Moving News
- Europe Moves Lower - FT
- FTSE Declines - FT
- Asia Tumbles - CNN Money
- Oil Stays Lofty Despite Inventory - AP/Yahoo!
- Turkish Troops Enter Northern Iraq - BBC
- U.S. Puts Some Weight Behind EU's Nabucco Pipeline - CNBC
- Chinese Jet Fuel Demand to Drive Prices Higher - Platts
- Euro Looks to Strengthen - DailyFX
- Metals in Record Territory - Forbes
- Large Redemptions Drive Zwirn to Hedge Fund Closure - Bloomberg
- Nissan (Nasdaq: NSANY) CEO Says Recession is Upon Us - CNN Money
- European Services Sector Exceeds Forecast - Bloomberg
- Brussels Wary of Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) Overhaul - FT
- Yahoo! Earnings Calendar
- Nicor (NYSE: GAS) Q4 Profit Dips - AP/Yahoo!
- XM Satellite (Nasdaq: XMSR), Sirius (Nasdaq: SIRI) EPS Reports Overshadowed by DOJ Decision - AP/Yahoo!
- Chinese Mills Reject Rio Tinto's (NYSE: RTP) Iron Ore Price Increase - Bloomberg
- Lloyd's (NYSE: LYG) Expands Write-down, Profit Still Rises - CNBC
- Huntsman (NYSE: HUN) Q4 Profit Declines - AP/Yahoo!
- Bridgepoint Buys Pret A Manger' - Bloomberg
- Harbinger Raises New York Times Stake (NYSE: NYT) - CNBC
- Clinton Probably Didn't Slow Obama Momentum in Debate - CNN
- Iraqi Cleric Agrees to Cease-Fire Extension - WSG
- The Risk of Serbian Isolation - Economist
- Germany, U.S. Condemn Serbian Attacks on Embassies - FT
- Greek's Week Ahead - Bond Insurers' 11th Hour
- Iran Daily: Tales from the Dark Side
posted by The Greek | 9:05 AM
3 Comments:
Come on, Greek, get the facts right!
"Nicosia remains Europe's last divided city, and sadly illustrates the contrast of political oppression against the fruit of freedom and capitalism that Cyprus represents."
It's not the Turks that are responsible for the ongoing separation of Cyprus, there was a vote, remember?
The Turks voted FOR a united Cyprus and the Greeks voted against it.
Responding to Wolf's statement, "get the facts right."
Actually, I happen to know the facts very well. First hand in fact.
I attended a meeting and held a follow up personal discussion with the Abmassador, Permanent Representative of Cyprus to the United Nations, Andreas Mavroyiannis, shortly after that so called vote you mentioned.
Cyprus came out of that vote looking bad to the international community, BECAUSE Kofi Annan was a bonehead (at least on this topic). Annan criticized Cyprus for voting no, and he never said why whilst he addressed the world's media.
Cyprus, you should recall, wants to be unified. Cyprus wants to be one country, like it was before the Turkish invasion that Turks still like to call a "protective action." Protective it might have been for a year or two, but not for 30+ years. There's no junta threat to the minority Turkish Cypriot population any longer.
The Ambassador told me why Cyprus voted against unification, under the perverted terms that were altered at the 11th hour. Turkey changed critical portions of the deal just before the signing, and sought to sneak those changes by the Cypriots.
Most people know, Greeks don't rush into anything, save perhaps a fire to save what they love. They were not about to sign that deal without verifying the terms were the same they agreed to.
Guess what, they were not. So, before the naive world blames Cyprus for backing away from a plan they initiated, they should be served the facts. Annan is at fault for allowing that misinformation to spread so widely.
Wolf, you must get the facts straight on this one. My sources are strong.
Markos
MK - Great point on the last minutes changes to the plebiciste regarding Cypriot unification. The proposals were a sham at best, and a way for Turkey to maintain its presence on Cyprus.
Continuing on the Turkish theme(s).... Entrance into the EU is no gurantee as there is till the question of having a Muslim nation (and largely Asian) country be a member of Europe. The apprehension exists, both on ethnic and religious grounds. Americans may not know history that well, but many Europeans remember (except for the EU leaders themselves) the last siege of Vienna in 1689.
That does make one wonder where their brains were when they voted to strip Kosovo from Serbia.
Turkey's main value remains its ownership of the Bosporus and control of the Black Sea. For NATO and Europe, this means keeping mother Russia safely contained on the Eurasian land mass.
Turkey's economic value may increase in a few years. This will depend on whether or not Turkey successfully moves eastwards into Central Asia.Central Asia, home to large reserves of hydrocarbon fuel resources is currently the golden ring now being sought by Russia, China and Turkey.
A majority of the Central Asian nations are ethnically and linguistically related to the Turks giving them an advantage.
The question is whether or not Turkey will be able to capitalize on these ties or not.
Daniel Padovano
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