The Greek's Week Ahead - Alone on an Island, "The Fed Will NOT Cut!"
Wall Street Greek is alone on an island. That would not be such a bad thing though, if it was one of my treasured summer paradises of the Aegean. I am of course speaking in the figurative sense, regarding my expectation for the Federal Open Market Committee meeting decision, which is due on December 11th. Pundit after pundit, economist and sector strategist alike, are all discussing a Fed cut as if it were a foregone conclusion, despite the Fed's own words to the contrary.
Ah, but you will point to Donald Kohn's recent address that seems to draw most, like a Siren's song, to the view that a cut is certain. It was of course his speech that set the market off running and speculating. I am very disappointed in the majority of experts who have set their expectations based on the speeches of Kohn and Bernanke. I warn those reckless sailors, beware the rocky shores she draws you toward!
I have to ask, have you listened to the whole speech, or are you taking some underpaid newspaper writer's word for it? (read a guy just like me) Well, I think that if you watched the speech or read the transcript, then you would have heard Donald qualify his statements, saying that his views were not necessarily those of the Fed on the whole. It was not just that though that convinced me to vote against the majority, it was his body language as he said it. Also, if you really listened and watched Bernanke's speech, you would have captured in memory his telling facial expressions as he discussed the Fed's need to be flexible. To me it was clear he was still in a position of neutrality that day, and the data released since has not been supportive of Fed action. Last week's jobs data seemed especially defiant.
Of first and foremost concern, the Treasury Secretary and President took some weight off the Fed chief's shoulders with their important announcement last week. If the collateral that supports mortgage backed securities and SIVs receives reinforcement from government policy, then credit markets (and equity) should find support as well.
Oh, and if you (read every overpaid pundit who thinks the Fed will cut rates, some of which are still expecting a 50 point move) missed the Fed's innuendo and body language, then go back and read the policy statement from the last meeting. Within it let me remind you, the Fed told us the risks were balanced on both sides of the equation, and the group clearly positioned itself as neutral. If you don't recall that, I'm sure you could not forget the market's dive since. The market you see, she is efficient, and despite the media and pundit calls for the next Fed cut, she was betting otherwise. I love that girl, because she never lies.
So, here I stand on this deserted island, like Tom Hanks in Castaway. Talking to myself and eating lunch with a volleyball, but what am I saying? That's what matters. The market has gained back some ground of late, and I expect she will give that all back in somewhat drastic fashion when the headless chickens starting running around in shock. "How could she surprise us like this," they will exclaim. But, you and I will know better.
On Monday, Reverand Jesse Jackson and other civil rights leaders plan to hold rallies across the country, including one on Wall Street. The protestors are calling on corporate America to take action, or more than they have, to stop home foreclosures. While Jackson puts on a good show, corporate America, especially those firms involved (read Hovnanian (NYSE: HOV), Countrywide (NYSE: CFC), Citigroup (NYSE: C)), and those realizing the results of lighter consumer spending like, (Darden (NYSE: DRI) and Sears (Nasdaq: SHLD)), already comprehend the importance here.
The prettiest Presidente gets sworn in as Argentina's new leader, Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner. Never has Argentina had such a magical leader, well not since the famed "hand of God" incident in the World Cup. Maybe she has the answer to thwart Chavez's South American plans. Perhaps if Columbia does not work out for us as a good diversion for Chavez, then Cristina could.
I would say that things could get a little more interesting on Tuesday, when the FOMC makes its announcement at 2:15 p.m. A 25 basis point move would basically seal the deal in my view and allow the market to tread higher, but I just do not see it as the most likely scenario. You know my call, no action on the Fed funds rate, but I expect a small cut on the discount rate. I expect the market to react poorly, but this will set up an opportunity for a decent Santa Claus rally or January effect in due time. Tax loss selling will soon lose its steam, if it hasn't already.
Wednesday will kick off with the regular weekly Purchase Applications Report from the Mortgage Bankers Association. At 8:30, October International Trade is expected to show the deficit widened to $57.3 billion from $56.5 billion in September. November Import Prices are also scheduled for release, and Barron's notes the economists' consensus for a 2.0% increase, versus a 1.8% increase in October. Rising oil prices should have played a role.
At 10:00, the Census Bureau will report its Quarterly Services Survey. This quarter's survey will be focused on information and technology-related service industries accounting for roughly 15% of GDP. At 10:30, the EIA will publish its weekly Petroleum Status Report, but I believe the most important factor impacting oil this week should be the repercussions of the NIE Report. Thus, I am looking for oil to continue on its downtrend again this week. However, since the report and the President's press conference that followed, Israel's leader has stated that Iran has indeed restarted its program. We read last week that Israel was set to share intelligence with the U.S. on the subject.
Thursday looks to offer a busy morning. The Producer Price Index for November is expected to show a 1.5% increase, compared to 0.1% in October. Reuters places price expectations less food and energy at a 0.2% increase. Retail sales for November will also be announced, and last week individual retailers offered up mixed but mostly weak chain store sales results. Reuters shows expectations for a 0.5% increase, versus 0.2% in October. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims will round out the early reports, and will match against last week's claims of 338,000.
Thursday's earnings news will emanate from BRT Realty Trust (NYSE: BRT), Comarco (Nasdaq: CMRO), Costco (Nasdaq: COST), eOn Communications (Nasdaq: EONC), Jos A. Bank (Nasdaq: JOSB), Lehman Brothers (NYSE: LEH), MDS (NYSE: MDZ), Pennantpark Investment (Nasdaq: PNNT), Quiksilver (NYSE: ZQK), SoftBrands (NYSE: SBN) and Tier Technologies (Nasdaq: TIER).
Friday's earnings reporters include Arrowhead Research (Nasdaq: ARWR), Electronic Clearing House (Nasdaq: ECHO), Rentech Inc. (AMEX: RTK), Value Line (Nasdaq: VALU) and Wimm-Bill-Dann Foods (NYSE: WBD).
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Labels: Week Ahead
posted by The Greek | 3:00 AM
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