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Seeking Alpha

Monday, December 03, 2007

Morning Report: Shady Characters


(Stocks in this article: Nasdaq: QQQQ, Nasdaq: ATVI, NYSE: SPY, NYSE: DIA, NYSE: MET, NYSE: MCO, Nasdaq: AMGN, NYSE: PAY, NYSE: DE)

Equities are cautious today, already looking ahead to the heavy economic data schedule of the week ahead, including the many employment reports.


  1. Paulson's Plan Unveiled - Hank grabs the mic in Washington around 10:30 this morning. The Treasury man is expected to comment on his most recent efforts to mitigate mortgage market issues. Hank's plan reportedly has to do with temporarily freezing rates on specific qualified ARMS loans. This should only delay the inevitable for those who still will not be able to afford their mortgages when rates do eventually reset. However, it may bide some time and allow some to refinance out of tough loans while also giving the mortgage derivatives market a chance to unwind.

  2. Bank of Japan Warns, Asian Equities Slip - Japan's top banker, incidentally a guy who makes a heck of a lot more money than The Greek, announced that U.S. economic woes could spread to global markets. Sounds a lot like the poorer man's advice from earlier this year. Asian equities didn't take the news well this morning and mostly declined.

  3. Shady Weekend Geopolitics - In case you fell into holiday bliss, you might have missed two shady votes that took place in two of the most interesting countries of this decade and last. In Venezuela, it seems the U.S. policy of ignorance toward the loud-mouthed Chavez might just pay off. Venezuelans lined up over the weekend to disallow their Presidente' the right to lifetime leadership. Meanwhile in a dark country much better controlled, KGB-man Putin continued to strangle his unsuspecting populous as his party won parliamentary elections. Putin seemed to send a message to some of the Soviet break-away states, stating that the Russian people decided not to follow the "destructive path" of other ex-Soviet states. It seems clear Putin intends to slowly turn support in states like Georgia and the Ukraine back toward his favor. I found his statement analogous to a demon's whispers in a man's ear. The OSCE is proclaiming election fraud, but would you believe a body made up of foreigners if they declared your election fixed? Well, I guess the answer is actually yes right... if we're talking about one particular year. But, most Americans would not believe this to be true, and Russians are likewise going to back their strong, however, cunning leader.

  4. Oil Supports Cracking - Qatari OPEC Minister Attiyah said he does not expect OPEC to increase production as a result of its highly anticipated Wednesday meeting. With oil dropping again today, The Greek does not expect it either.

  5. Economic Data - The first bit of economic data hits the wires at 10:00 a.m., with the reporting of the November ISM Manufacturing Index. Last week's Beige Book seems to portend weakness here, but the NAPM - Chicago came in well ahead of expectations at 52.9. Bloomberg's consensus of economists are looking for an ISM reading of 50.4 for November, compared to 50.9 in October. Remember, 50 marks the break point between contraction and expansion of the manufacturing sector. Motor vehicle sales will be reported for November at 4 p.m., with expectations for 12.1 million vehicles, compared to the same figure in October.

  6. Yellen Will Be Yelling! - San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen probably can't dent the impact of last week's powerful speakers when she makes a scheduled address on Monday.

  7. Airwaves for Sale - Barron's published an important article about a notable event that is to take place Monday (see the Tech Trader column). Some very useful wireless spectrum is going up for auction, and applications are due Monday. According to Barron's, old VHF and UHF airwaves could prove extremely valuable for wireless broadband providers, and interest is expected from the likes of AT&T (NYSE: T), Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) and Comcast (Nasdaq: CMCSA) to name a few.


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