Morning Report - Economic Data Takes Helm
(Stocks in article: NYSE: MOT, NYSE: BAC, NYSE: AET, NYSE: PHM, NYSE: BMY, NYSE: DAI, NYSE: SNE, Nasdaq: CMCSA, Nasdaq: MSFT)
Economic data should take the market helm today, with three key reports on the slate. Each bit of data is critical now as we approach the Fed's Halloween meeting. The market will read Fed bias implications into each point, and data will thus drive daily price movement.
Considering yesterday's afternoon rally was at least partially driven by the rumor of a Fed emergency meeting, which I view unlikely, and given this mornings negative economic data flow, I would look for stocks to trend lower today.
Last week, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims surprised on the high side when reported at 339,000 (revised), so today's report was under the microscope. New benefits filers amounted to 331,000, effectively lifting the four-week moving average to 324,750. While not yet alarming, the trend is moving in the wrong direction, raising concern for recession.
Durable Goods orders for September were reported this morning down 1.7%, in stark contrast to expectations for growth of 1.8%, according to Bloomberg's consensus of economists. Non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft (business investment) grew just 0.4%.
Later this morning, new home sales will be reported for the month of September, after yesterday's surprisingly weak existing sales data. The market is growing numb to weak housing news. Still, a bearish figure on this and other data points could be taken two separate ways, with an optimist's view looking to consequential Fed action to boost economic growth and the pessimist view of frantic concern for recession. In conclusion, despite only modest futures reaction, I would expect bearish data overtones to win the day today and take away yesterday's rumor driven rise.
Economic data should take the market helm today, with three key reports on the slate. Each bit of data is critical now as we approach the Fed's Halloween meeting. The market will read Fed bias implications into each point, and data will thus drive daily price movement.
Considering yesterday's afternoon rally was at least partially driven by the rumor of a Fed emergency meeting, which I view unlikely, and given this mornings negative economic data flow, I would look for stocks to trend lower today.
Last week, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims surprised on the high side when reported at 339,000 (revised), so today's report was under the microscope. New benefits filers amounted to 331,000, effectively lifting the four-week moving average to 324,750. While not yet alarming, the trend is moving in the wrong direction, raising concern for recession.
Durable Goods orders for September were reported this morning down 1.7%, in stark contrast to expectations for growth of 1.8%, according to Bloomberg's consensus of economists. Non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft (business investment) grew just 0.4%.
Later this morning, new home sales will be reported for the month of September, after yesterday's surprisingly weak existing sales data. The market is growing numb to weak housing news. Still, a bearish figure on this and other data points could be taken two separate ways, with an optimist's view looking to consequential Fed action to boost economic growth and the pessimist view of frantic concern for recession. In conclusion, despite only modest futures reaction, I would expect bearish data overtones to win the day today and take away yesterday's rumor driven rise.
Market-Moving News
- Department of Labor: Weekly Initial Jobless Claims at 331k, Ahead of Consensus 320k View
- CNBC: Durable Goods Orders September Stark Contrast to Expectations (Down 1.7% Vs. Consensus View for 1.8% Growth)
- ECONOMIC REPORT: Pending 10:00 AM - New Home Sales September (Consensus 770k)
- CNN Money: Asian Markets Mixed
- Bloomberg: China Grows GDP 11.5% in Q3
- Financial Times: European Shares Rise on Earnings
- DailyFX: Watch What the Fed Watches
- Platts: Shell Says Oil Prices Not Supported
- Platts: ICE Futures Set New Highs on Bullish U.S. Stocks
- CNN Money: Chinese Product Recalls Impacting U.S. Sales
- Bloomberg: German Business Confidence Drops to 20-Month Low
- Dow Jones: Rangle's Tax Plan
- TheStreet.com Earnings Calendar
- TheStreet.com: Motorola (NYSE: MOT) Sales Plunge
- CNBC: Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) Sheds 3,000 Jobs
- AP/Yahoo!: Aetna (NYSE: AET) Q3 Rises, Raises Outlook
- CNBC: Pulte Homes (NYSE: PHM) Posts Loss, $1 Bln. Writedown
- AP/Yahoo!: Briston-Myers Squibb (NYSE: BMY) Sales Surge on Plavix
- Forbes: Daimler (NYSE: DAI) Posts Q3 Loss
- MarketWatch: Sony (NYSE: SNE) Rebounds
- AP/Yahoo!: Comcast (Nasdaq: CMCSA) Profit Falls
- SeekingAlpha: What Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) Implies About FaceBook Value
- TheStreet.com: The Worst Over for Merrill?
- BBC: Turks Losing Patience with PKK
- BBC: Israel to Cut Gaza Power
- Iran Daily: Tales from the Dark Side
Please support our effort by visiting the site and supporting our advertisers. Receive Wall Street Greek FREE via email by subscribing here. (disclosure)
posted by The Greek | 9:15 AM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home