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Seeking Alpha

Tuesday, October 23, 2007

Today's Coffee - An Apple a Day


(Stocks in this article: Nasdaq: AAPL, Nasdaq: UAUA, NYSE: BP, NYSE: CFC, NYSE: COH, NYSE: DD, NYSE: WHR, NYSE: T, NYSE: LMT, NYSE: NKE, NYSE: UPS)

Tech to the rescue! AGAIN! In times of turmoil, when distress abounds and there seems there is no stopping the world's imminent doom, the city of Gotham puts out the call to its savior in silicon green, The Technology Sector!

Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) posted a blowout quarter, earning $1.01 a share, which was well ahead of analysts' consensus for $0.86, according to Thomson Financial. Growth was boosted from a segment you might not have expected, as Mac sales jumped 34%. The company notes Mac sales benefited from new product introduction and higher education sales. I suspect Mac sales may be benefiting also from residual sales to iPhone shoppers at Apple retail stores. That's called synergy folks, and justifies the existence of Apple's stores as it seeks to take market share in the PC space.

Management indicated that 50% of Mac sales were to people new to Mac, and I believe this is evidence of the store and iPhone impact. Apple's fiscal first quarter guidance also exceeded expectations; the company expects to earn $1.42, versus the consensus $1.39 view. AAPL shares are up over 6% today as a result.

Economic Data & Analysis

The International Council of Shopping Centers - UBS produced its weekly same-store sales report this morning. We continue to be attentive to changes in consumer spending, and we found last week's 2.2% year-over-year same-store sales growth disconcerting. The weak performance compared with the prior week's year-over-year growth measure of 2.5%, and the trend is still far below last year's growth rate. With oil prices involved in a mad race to $90, we see no reason to expect increased consumer spending moving forward, especially if oil prices hold and allow gasoline prices to make up ground.

State Street reported its Investor Confidence Index for October this morning. Considering the market's reaction to the Fed's September rate cut, we expected October's confidence reading to exceed September's result of 88.7 (revised lower from 92.1). However, confidence actually fell dramatically. State Street reported October Investor Confidence at 82.6, near this year's low point. Nonetheless, the Fed's Halloween meeting should decide the direction of stocks and capital flow into or out of stocks moving forward.

Company Specific News

Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) began a two-day analysts' meeting on Tuesday, where this analyst is sure the key questions will be how international expansion might boost top line growth and how much cost can be squeezed out of the lemon in the meantime.

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