Today's Coffee - Lobsters, Rockets and Blind Trust

The day has a holiday feel to it, for everyone outside of housing participants that is. Pending home sales provided a disappointing report that was not anticipated by most, but was as visible as the noses on our faces. Despite this, and possibly supported by a better than expected factory orders report, equities inched broadly higher. The stock market closed at 1:00 p.m., though many market players were not in the house to begin with.

Following 9/11, I use to anticipate terrorism related market weakness heading into important American holidays. I wonder if my lack of concern today, and the market's, is a contrary indicator now. With the recent events and ongoing investigation in the U.K., and reports like the one that warned us that Terrorist University had just graduated its class of 2007, with a class trip planned to the U.S. and Europe, maybe this will be "the year." Working on "Wall Street," though literally on Water Street, gave me bird's-eye view of the hypersensitivity of the investment community. How could we not be, with police helicopters overhead and machine gun toting grunts on every corner.

The dumbfounded stares of high level managers at my firm as they watched the Twin Towers burning, rather than leading the employees to safety, was clear evidence to me of the general ignorance that existed about world affairs within our community before the event. Not with me though. After graduating from business school, I avoided New York city jobs for months to avoid terrorism I viewed a certainty. Wouldn't you know it, I ended up commuting through the World Trade Center on a daily basis, and my firm almost relocated to the Towers just before the tragic event. And, for a guy who did foresee the use of airplanes on skyscrapers, somehow, I still ended up scheduled to attend a meeting in the Towers on the morning of 9/13/2001. Why? Because we have to live our lives without fear. A great Greek hero named Constantine Kanaris, use to go into battle against the Ottomans inspiring his men with the words, "Konstati, you are going to die today," according to Wikipedia. I've heard these words expressed in another manner by old Chians, "Konstati, you are going to die (someday). Today is as good a day as any for it." Modern translation would be, "Today's a good day to die!" If you enter a contest without fear of losing, you play or fight without the burden of that fear, while still benefiting from the inspiration of the challenge. Our point is that we do not live in fear, nor do we live ignorant of danger.

In the view of this independent thinker, our world is about to undergo drastic change. Many things we consider a given, could soon become lost to us. No matter what the herd tells us, remember, preparedness is not equivalent to fear. It is in fact an expression of intelligence over ignorance. Have you read my article about 9/11? The tragedy had a profound impact on my own life, as I'm sure it did upon many of yours as well.

So, tomorrow I will celebrate America's independence as proudly as ever. No matter what opinion much of the world may have of America or Americans, nothing can tarnish the ideals this country was founded upon or the principles it continues to be ruled by. You know, the ancient Athenians took democracy even a step further. Everyone was expected to serve as a senator, and the rule of individuals was constantly in check in order to insure democracy. As flawed as our detractors may consider America, the country continues to be the envy of the world and the best available model to build by. It's now America's duty to restore our image as leader and teacher, versus how we are seen by too many, which is greedy and intrusive.

The road ahead for our global community has many pitfalls, and that was never clearer than in Putin's quiet discontent as he followed Bush to a makeshift podium on Maine's rough-land. Putin looked to the ground, and his thoughts seemed elsewhere. You have to grant President Bush due respect for seeking to reach the human man behind the KGB shell. The problem with Putin is he is unable to view perspective beyond nationality. Bush, as back country as he seems, has a rough grasp of the existence of a greater purpose.

Putin met with Venezuela's Chavez just before coming to Maine, and now Chavez is meeting with Ahmadinejad in Iran. Putin's aggressive positioning and statements seem intent on preparing the world perhaps for what comes next, and I believe that could be a more aggressive positioning to defend Iran. Beyond stern U.N. statements and actions to prevent military usage, I anticipate Russia could in fact blankly state that an attack on Iran would be like an attack on Russia. Iran's boldness in the face of what we've done in Iraq, and Chavez's bravado, seem supported by more than ego. And if it comes to war, would Russian submarines dare fire on U.S. warships? A lot depends on what happens beforehand.

It almost seems like America would prefer to draw Iran into conflict, perhaps lure the unsuspecting into a flaw that might provide impetus for action. I'm sure our current patience has much to do with Russia's impatience with us. Let's take a fresh and sterilized perspective, shall we, and then lets add a touch of Russian point of view. Maybe Russia doesn't want us to mess up their neighborhood more than we already have. China certainly would like to see us leave things be, because China of course, has nothing to fear from Iran, but much to gain from an unmolested Middle East. China and Russia will stand up for Iran, in our view. It should become increasingly clear with time that there is more risk than just that posed by Iran.

But, is there any other course than the one we are set upon? America will continue to pursue the correct path this time, through U.N. sanctions. Eventually, America will seek a sanction that allows military action to stop Iran. Russia and China will resist, but more than that, they will insist we keep our hands in our pockets. At that point, it will be left to Israel to act. What else can we do? Well, for one thing, we could lure Iran into a mistake and attack ahead of the U.N. dead end.

I was surprised to see my nation nearly bend over backwards to win Putin's approval for the missile defense program. Placing batteries in Azerbaijan insures they could be destroyed before they would launch one interceptor. My President's trust in Putin's soul is a naive trust. I have yet to see Putin make one human gesture to the world or for it.

Iran will not back down as long as China and Russia are in its corner. You can fill Putin up with lobster, but it's going to take much more to change his old world mentality, or is it cold world. I applaud George for trying, but I fear there is no brokering a peaceful end to the Iranian issue. I see this latest decision severely flawed if consummated, and I view his boyish pursuit of camaraderie, as his Achilles heel.

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