2014 Summer Stock Market Forecast

Wall Street Greek is forecasting a June swing higher for stocks. The four main obstacles holding the market back for most 2014 have now been cleared, and so the way has been made clear for stocks to run higher starting in June. At the start of 2014, we presciently forecast that the delay of capital gains taking on the high flying stocks of 2013 until after January 1st would drive capital flows out of stocks and into the laggard investment sectors of last year, including gold. The 32% gain marked by the SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY), 30% by the SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA) and the 37% increase seen in the PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ) were effectively stymied in January, and the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD), iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV) and other laggards begin to rise. As the year progressed, other factors took the baton and effectively weighed against stocks. Harsh winter weather began to impact first quarter economic data, but investors hadn’t yet accepted weather as the temporary cause, and so stocks were burdened by concern. The Russian incursion into Ukraine added an unexpected geopolitical weight against equities. Finally, the Fed’s publishing of its Fed Funds Rate forecast which implied a 2015 start to rate increases worked against equities. We invite you to see how each one of these obstacles have since been cleared. See our full report: S&P 500 Summer Forecast – Part I: Obstacles Cleared.