Week Ahead: Eye on Fed Speak, Retail Sales & Bank EPS
We have got a busy and interesting week ahead, with a full slate of economic data scheduled for reporting. Earnings reports are starting to flow as well, and so we will hear from some of the first major corporations this week, especially the banks. From our perspective, the most interesting thing to follow will be the Federal Reserve, given that many Fed heads are scheduled to speak this week. After last week’s poor employment report, it will be interesting to see how the tone from the Fed may or may not change.
Stocks managed to recover a bit of lost ground last week, mostly because it seems Fed pressure may come off with the questionable employment data just reported. Take note that gold still rose despite the gains in stocks; that has more to do with the expected impact on the dollar from the same Fed shift that stock investors are looking for. You’ll want to review our article just authored this weekend for more on this subject.
Economic Events
This week, our focus will be on Fed-speak after the Employment Situation Report disappointment of last week. The tapering trend that the Fed is currently on could be affected by that one single report, and if the tone of the discussion from Fed members this week changes at all, then the rally in the S&P 500 Friday could be something sustainable. Same goes for the SPDR Gold Shares or GLD (NYSE: GLD), which we wrote about this past weekend. The Fed Beige Book of regional economic indicators will also be released this week, adding to the flow of info. If the Fed stays stubbornly on a somewhat hawkish path, then stocks stand to lose ground – unfortunately, this is probably more likely.
We will receive a lot of new pricing data this week as well, including the PPI, CPI and import and export price data, so inflation will get a read. Obviously, the Fed is focused on inflation and jobs, and so this data proves very important. Investors should be rooting for healthy but not robust price increase, enough to keep the Fed on the gas. Any sign of inflation will scare the heck out of stocks.
Retail sales gets a monthly read Tuesday, but early reports on the holiday shopping season soured the group over the past week or so. Monday, lululemon (Nasdaq: LULU) warned on its results. Economists’ expectations for retail sales are set low, at no change for the latest period, so if some growth materializes it has a chance to stabilize the group.
A slew of housing and industrial data is also on the slate this week, so investors and econo-watchers will get a good read on the state of the economy and stocks generally.
Corporate Events
Earnings season has begun, but the reporting slate is still very light. Look for the major banks to report this week, including Citigroup (NYSE: C), J.P. Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM), Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) and Bank of America (NYSE: BAC). We just authored a piece indicating that Bank of America is our favorite real estate stock for 2014.
Recent reports you might find interesting:
Why GE Shares are Under Pressure
If you found this report valuable, please do follow this column to receive it regularly.
Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.
Week Ahead
Index ETF
|
Last Week
|
YTD
|
Trailing 12-M
|
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)
|
+0.7%
|
+-0.9%
|
+24.5%
|
SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA)
|
-0.1%
|
+-1.3%
|
+21.2
|
PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ)
|
+0.8%
|
+-1.3%
|
+29.0%
|
Stocks managed to recover a bit of lost ground last week, mostly because it seems Fed pressure may come off with the questionable employment data just reported. Take note that gold still rose despite the gains in stocks; that has more to do with the expected impact on the dollar from the same Fed shift that stock investors are looking for. You’ll want to review our article just authored this weekend for more on this subject.
Economic Events
THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC REPORT
SCHEDULE
|
||
Economic Data Point
|
Prior
|
Expected
|
MONDAY
|
||
-$135.2 B
|
+$44.0 B
|
|
Asian Financial Forum in China
|
||
TUESDAY
|
||
92.5
|
93.5
|
|
+0.7%
|
0.0%
|
|
-Less Autos & Gas
|
+0.6%
|
+0.3%
|
-5.4%
|
||
-Year-to-Year Pace
|
+1.7%
|
|
+4.1%
|
||
International Trade Prices
(Exports)
|
+0.1%
|
+0.1%
|
-Imports
|
-0.6%
|
+0.4%
|
+0.7%
|
+0.3%
|
|
Egypt Referendum on Constitution
|
||
WEDNESDAY
|
||
+2.6%
|
||
-0.1%
|
+0.4%
|
|
-Core PPI
|
+0.1%
|
+0.1%
|
0.98
|
3.3
|
|
-Crude Oil Inventory
|
-2.7 M
|
|
-Gasoline Inventory
|
+6.2 M
|
|
THURSDAY
|
||
+0.0%
|
+0.3%
|
|
-Core CPI
|
+0.2%
|
+0.1%
|
58
|
57.5
|
|
330K
|
327K
|
|
-28.4
|
||
-157 Bcf
|
||
+7.0
|
+8.7
|
|
FRIDAY
|
||
1.091 M
|
0.985 M
|
|
-Permits
|
1.007 M
|
1.015 M
|
+1.1%
|
+0.3%
|
|
-Capacity Utilization
|
79.0%
|
79.1%
|
-Manufacturing Production
|
+0.6%
|
+0.3%
|
82.5
|
83.5
|
|
3.925 M
|
3.930 M
|
|
China Mobile (NYSE: CHL) Starts Selling Apple iPhone (Nasdaq: AAPL)
|
This week, our focus will be on Fed-speak after the Employment Situation Report disappointment of last week. The tapering trend that the Fed is currently on could be affected by that one single report, and if the tone of the discussion from Fed members this week changes at all, then the rally in the S&P 500 Friday could be something sustainable. Same goes for the SPDR Gold Shares or GLD (NYSE: GLD), which we wrote about this past weekend. The Fed Beige Book of regional economic indicators will also be released this week, adding to the flow of info. If the Fed stays stubbornly on a somewhat hawkish path, then stocks stand to lose ground – unfortunately, this is probably more likely.
We will receive a lot of new pricing data this week as well, including the PPI, CPI and import and export price data, so inflation will get a read. Obviously, the Fed is focused on inflation and jobs, and so this data proves very important. Investors should be rooting for healthy but not robust price increase, enough to keep the Fed on the gas. Any sign of inflation will scare the heck out of stocks.
Retail sales gets a monthly read Tuesday, but early reports on the holiday shopping season soured the group over the past week or so. Monday, lululemon (Nasdaq: LULU) warned on its results. Economists’ expectations for retail sales are set low, at no change for the latest period, so if some growth materializes it has a chance to stabilize the group.
A slew of housing and industrial data is also on the slate this week, so investors and econo-watchers will get a good read on the state of the economy and stocks generally.
Corporate Events
Earnings season has begun, but the reporting slate is still very light. Look for the major banks to report this week, including Citigroup (NYSE: C), J.P. Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM), Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) and Bank of America (NYSE: BAC). We just authored a piece indicating that Bank of America is our favorite real estate stock for 2014.
HIGHLIGHTED EPS REPORTS
|
|
Company
|
Ticker
|
MONDAY
|
|
American Airlines
|
NYSE: AAL
|
Amgen
|
Nasdaq: AMGN
|
Dendreon
|
Nasdaq: DNDN
|
Hansen Medical
|
Nasdaq: HNSN
|
LiveDeal
|
Nasdaq: LIVE
|
M&T Bank
|
NYSE: MTB
|
Noodles & Co.
|
Nasdaq: NDLS
|
Sodastream
|
Nasdaq: SODA
|
St. Jude Medical
|
NYSE: STJ
|
The Wendy’s Co.
|
NYSE: WEN
|
Volcano
|
Nasdaq: VOLC
|
TUESDAY
|
|
Commerce Bancshares
|
Nasdaq: CBSH
|
J.P. Morgan Chase
|
NYSE: JPM
|
Linear Technology
|
Nasdaq: LLTC
|
Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory
|
Nasdaq: RMCF
|
SemiLEDs
|
Nasdaq: LEDS
|
Washington Federal
|
Nasdaq: WAFD
|
Wells Fargo
|
NYSE: WFC
|
WEDNESDAY
|
|
AEP Industries
|
Nasdaq: AEPI
|
Bank of America
|
NYSE: BAC
|
Boston Private Financial
|
Nasdaq: BPFH
|
CLARCOR
|
NYSE: CLC
|
CSX
|
NYSE: CSX
|
El Paso Pipeline Partners
|
NYSE: EPB
|
Fastenal
|
Nasdaq: FAST
|
H.B. Fuller
|
NYSE: FUL
|
Kinder Morgan Energy Partners
|
NYSE: KMP
|
Kinder Morgan Inc.
|
NYSE: KMI
|
MB Financial
|
Nasdaq: MBFI
|
Plexus
|
Nasdaq: PLXS
|
WNS Ltd
|
NYSE: WNS
|
THURSDAY
|
|
American Express
|
NYSE: AXP
|
Associated Banc-Corp
|
Nasdaq: ASBC
|
Bank of Ozarks
|
Nasdaq: OZRK
|
BB&T Corp.
|
NYSE: BBT
|
BlackRock
|
NYSE: BLK
|
Capital One Financial
|
NYSE: COF
|
Citigroup
|
NYSE: C
|
First Republic Bank
|
NYSE: FRC
|
Goldman Sachs
|
NYSE: GS
|
Huntington Bancshares
|
Nasdaq: HBAN
|
iGATE
|
Nasdaq: IGTE
|
Intel
|
Nasdaq: INTC
|
People’s United Financial
|
Nasdaq: PBCT
|
PNC Financial
|
NYSE: PNC
|
PPG Industries
|
NYSE: PPG
|
Private Bancorp
|
Nasdaq: PVTB
|
Skyworks Solutions
|
Nasdaq: SWKS
|
SLM Corp.
|
NYSE: SLM
|
UnitedHealth Group
|
NYSE: UNH
|
Westamerica Bancorporation
|
Nasdaq: WABC
|
FRIDAY
|
|
ASA Gold & Precious Metals
|
NYSE: ASA
|
Bank Mutual
|
Nasdaq: BKMU
|
Bank of New York Mellon
|
NYSE: BK
|
Clubcorp
|
Nasdaq: MYCC
|
Comerica
|
NYSE: CMA
|
General Electric
|
NYSE: GE
|
Home BancShares
|
Nasdaq: HOMB
|
Morgan Stanley
|
NYSE: MS
|
Schlumberger NV
|
NYSE: SLB
|
SunTrust Banks
|
NYSE: STI
|
Webster Financial
|
NYSE: WBS
|
Recent reports you might find interesting:
Why GE Shares are Under Pressure
If you found this report valuable, please do follow this column to receive it regularly.
Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.
Labels: Market-Outlook, Market-Outlook-2014-Q1, Week-Ahead, Week-Ahead-2014
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