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Monday, January 13, 2014

Week Ahead: Eye on Fed Speak, Retail Sales & Bank EPS

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We have got a busy and interesting week ahead, with a full slate of economic data scheduled for reporting. Earnings reports are starting to flow as well, and so we will hear from some of the first major corporations this week, especially the banks. From our perspective, the most interesting thing to follow will be the Federal Reserve, given that many Fed heads are scheduled to speak this week. After last week’s poor employment report, it will be interesting to see how the tone from the Fed may or may not change.

Week Ahead


Index ETF
Last Week
YTD
Trailing 12-M
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)
+0.7%
+-0.9%
+24.5%
SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA)
-0.1%
+-1.3%
+21.2
PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ)
+0.8%
+-1.3%
+29.0%

Stocks managed to recover a bit of lost ground last week, mostly because it seems Fed pressure may come off with the questionable employment data just reported. Take note that gold still rose despite the gains in stocks; that has more to do with the expected impact on the dollar from the same Fed shift that stock investors are looking for. You’ll want to review our article just authored this weekend for more on this subject.

Economic Events

THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC REPORT SCHEDULE
Economic Data Point
Prior
Expected
MONDAY




-$135.2 B
+$44.0 B




TUESDAY


92.5
93.5
+0.7%
0.0%
-Less Autos & Gas
+0.6%
+0.3%
-5.4%

-Year-to-Year Pace
+1.7%

+4.1%

+0.1%
+0.1%
-Imports
-0.6%
+0.4%
+0.7%
+0.3%




Egypt Referendum on Constitution


WEDNESDAY






+2.6%

-0.1%
+0.4%
-Core PPI
+0.1%
+0.1%
0.98
3.3


-Crude Oil Inventory
-2.7 M

-Gasoline Inventory
+6.2 M







THURSDAY


+0.0%
+0.3%
-Core CPI
+0.2%
+0.1%
58
57.5
330K
327K


-28.4

-157 Bcf

+7.0
+8.7




FRIDAY


1.091 M
0.985 M
-Permits
1.007 M
1.015 M
+1.1%
+0.3%
-Capacity Utilization
79.0%
79.1%
-Manufacturing Production
+0.6%
+0.3%
82.5
83.5
3.925 M
3.930 M


China Mobile (NYSE: CHL) Starts Selling Apple iPhone (Nasdaq: AAPL)

This week, our focus will be on Fed-speak after the Employment Situation Report disappointment of last week. The tapering trend that the Fed is currently on could be affected by that one single report, and if the tone of the discussion from Fed members this week changes at all, then the rally in the S&P 500 Friday could be something sustainable. Same goes for the SPDR Gold Shares or GLD (NYSE: GLD), which we wrote about this past weekend. The Fed Beige Book of regional economic indicators will also be released this week, adding to the flow of info. If the Fed stays stubbornly on a somewhat hawkish path, then stocks stand to lose ground – unfortunately, this is probably more likely.

We will receive a lot of new pricing data this week as well, including the PPI, CPI and import and export price data, so inflation will get a read. Obviously, the Fed is focused on inflation and jobs, and so this data proves very important. Investors should be rooting for healthy but not robust price increase, enough to keep the Fed on the gas. Any sign of inflation will scare the heck out of stocks.

Retail sales gets a monthly read Tuesday, but early reports on the holiday shopping season soured the group over the past week or so. Monday, lululemon (Nasdaq: LULU) warned on its results. Economists’ expectations for retail sales are set low, at no change for the latest period, so if some growth materializes it has a chance to stabilize the group.

A slew of housing and industrial data is also on the slate this week, so investors and econo-watchers will get a good read on the state of the economy and stocks generally.

Corporate Events

Earnings season has begun, but the reporting slate is still very light. Look for the major banks to report this week, including Citigroup (NYSE: C), J.P. Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM), Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) and Bank of America (NYSE: BAC). We just authored a piece indicating that Bank of America is our favorite real estate stock for 2014.

HIGHLIGHTED EPS REPORTS
Company
Ticker
MONDAY

American Airlines
NYSE: AAL
Amgen
Nasdaq: AMGN
Dendreon
Nasdaq: DNDN
Hansen Medical
Nasdaq: HNSN
LiveDeal
Nasdaq: LIVE
M&T Bank
NYSE: MTB
Noodles & Co.
Nasdaq: NDLS
Sodastream
Nasdaq: SODA
St. Jude Medical
NYSE: STJ
The Wendy’s Co.
NYSE: WEN
Volcano
Nasdaq: VOLC
TUESDAY

Commerce Bancshares
Nasdaq: CBSH
J.P. Morgan Chase
NYSE: JPM
Linear Technology
Nasdaq: LLTC
Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory
Nasdaq: RMCF
SemiLEDs
Nasdaq: LEDS
Washington Federal
Nasdaq: WAFD
Wells Fargo
NYSE: WFC
WEDNESDAY

AEP Industries
Nasdaq: AEPI
Bank of America
NYSE: BAC
Boston Private Financial
Nasdaq: BPFH
CLARCOR
NYSE: CLC
CSX
NYSE: CSX
El Paso Pipeline Partners
NYSE: EPB
Fastenal
Nasdaq: FAST
H.B. Fuller
NYSE: FUL
Kinder Morgan Energy Partners
NYSE: KMP
Kinder Morgan Inc.
NYSE: KMI
MB Financial
Nasdaq: MBFI
Plexus
Nasdaq: PLXS
WNS Ltd
NYSE: WNS
THURSDAY

American Express
NYSE: AXP
Associated Banc-Corp
Nasdaq: ASBC
Bank of Ozarks
Nasdaq: OZRK
BB&T Corp.
NYSE: BBT
BlackRock
NYSE: BLK
Capital One Financial
NYSE: COF
Citigroup
NYSE: C
First Republic Bank
NYSE: FRC
Goldman Sachs
NYSE: GS
Huntington Bancshares
Nasdaq: HBAN
iGATE
Nasdaq: IGTE
Intel
Nasdaq: INTC
People’s United Financial
Nasdaq: PBCT
PNC Financial
NYSE: PNC
PPG Industries
NYSE: PPG
Private Bancorp
Nasdaq: PVTB
Skyworks Solutions
Nasdaq: SWKS
SLM Corp.
NYSE: SLM
UnitedHealth Group
NYSE: UNH
Westamerica Bancorporation
Nasdaq: WABC
FRIDAY

ASA Gold & Precious Metals
NYSE: ASA
Bank Mutual
Nasdaq: BKMU
Bank of New York Mellon
NYSE: BK
Clubcorp
Nasdaq: MYCC
Comerica
NYSE: CMA
General Electric
NYSE: GE
Home BancShares
Nasdaq: HOMB
Morgan Stanley
NYSE: MS
Schlumberger NV
NYSE: SLB
SunTrust Banks
NYSE: STI
Webster Financial
NYSE: WBS

Recent reports you might find interesting:
Why GE Shares are Under Pressure

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Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

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