Traders' Chat Room & Message Board – February 2013
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Labels: Traders-Boards, Traders-Boards-2013
posted by The Greek | 6:39 PM
7 Comments:
I recently authored 3 articles on Apple. I basically made the point that management has thus far dropped the ball due to the delay in Apple Television development. I expect that will be the catalyst to give AAPL life again. You can see the articles via the links below, but what do you think about AAPL today (roughly $450). I wrote that the stock could dip as far as $400, but investors might consider beginning to take new stakes now, depending on risk aversion. Do you think this is the bottom like I do? I've called the bottom correctly with the stock market in 2009, oil prices years ago, other stocks like Toyota after its PR crisis. Am I right about AAPL? Please comment here and not at the specific articles, so we can start a discussion about AAPL here.
1) http://wallstreetgreek.blogspot.com/2013/01/apple-not-prettiest-girl-in-room-anymore.html
2) http://seekingalpha.com/article/1148171-the-problem-with-apple-is-apple
3) http://www.examiner.com/article/time-to-buy-apple-stock-again
I think Apple is a screaming buy here. This may be a once in a generation opportunity. I have been buying since $500 and I'm liking it even more now. You're right about the TV Greek, and I think it'll be here this year. When do you think they might introduce it?
What do you think of the Dell deal Greek?
Thanks for your question Mike in Detroit. Here's what I have to say about Dell going private.
Oftentimes when public companies are taken private either by private equity firms or corporate insiders, it's because there's value to be unleashed that is not captured by a beaten down stock price on recent performance. The "consortium of banks" in this Dell deal probably includes the who's who of Wall Street. Neither does Silver Lake Partners make a bad deal.
Dell lagged lately because it couldn't produce a tablet without a Microsoft operating system, and so watched market share bleed away to Apple and every company with a tablet.
Michael Dell will make a lot of money out of this deal and retain control of his company. I'm sure Silver Lake and Wall Street had to give him that in order to win the deal.
So, if I were a shareholder of Dell I would fight this deal. Insiders and Wall Street are going to unlock the value that is also there for current shareholders to take, and so this deal is unfair to them. They won't benefit and the 24% premium since the news leaked isn't enough, because I don't expect it to take long for the value to be unlocked. And guess what will happen then... Dell will go public again and the private equity interests will make a bundle.
I was at an investment conference Thursday and found one no-brainer stock idea I'll definitely be writing about soon, and two other possibles that I'll have to dig deeper into to understand and/or believe in. This great idea fits in with a theme I want to run with over the next month or two, and will include another company I once loved and like again now.
A tip for you about investment conferences. You'll never hear a bad story from a corporate executive presenting at a conference. Executives are obviously biased and dependent on investor interest, and tend to ignore reasons for their shares to trade lower or to lag the market. It's easy for them to ignore macro or even industry drivers, and sometimes even possible for them to miss company specific factors.
HOWEVER, the critical eye of the discerning investor will find winners at these events, but you'll always need to follow up with your own research. In this case, I trust the first screen more than many, which are my friends at this particular investment firm (Holding the name because I want to break the stock when I'm ready to).
I'll be attending more events like this in 2013, and possibly even doing some live-blogging. Research firms and others who would like me to attend their events should contact me via the telephone number listed here at the blog.
I may break this stock at SA, but email subscribers will always get the same-day email wherever I publish first, so sign up.
Stay tuned...
You are right about Apple my boy. This week's chart shows it is ready to rebound. Next week's corporate announcement should be the catalyst, but I would not sell on the news. Would you?
Any thoughts on what Marc Fabers recent scary comments on Apple ? By the way, Im also Apple shareholder. I hope it does well.
http://www.marcfabersblog.com/2013/10/warning-signs-flashing-for-apple-marcfaber.html
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