Where Art Thou Housing Growth

Real Estate

The latest data from the Mortgage Bankers Association showed a decline in weekly mortgage activity. The spring selling season is aging quickly, so where art thou housing growth?

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Where Art Thou Housing Growth?

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported on Weekly Mortgage Activity for the period ending April 8, 2011. In the most recent week preceding this reporting, we tracked a spurt of contracting in mortgages tied to home purchases. The MBA attributed those to an impending deadline where-after FHA insurance would increase. We also highlighted the fact that FHA sponsored purchases would be delayed by the government shutdown that threatened last week. Some sort of extraordinary anomaly would seem to have been proven behind the spurt, as this week's report offered no reason for enthusiasm.

The Market Composite Index of mortgage activity declined by 6.7% on a seasonally adjusted basis in this latest measured period. Refinancing activity declined last week, and this week saw no help from mortgage rates to change matters. The average contracted rate on 30-year and 15-year fixed rate mortgages rose to 4.98% (from 4.93%) and to 4.17% (from 4.14%), respectively. This drove the Refinance Index to decline by 7.7%, and led the refinance share of overall mortgage activity to fall to 60.3%, from 61.2% in the week just prior.

Weakness in refinancing was also seen last week, but this time around, trouble was found across the board. The Purchase Index fell 4.7% from the prior week, but perhaps some of that was due to normalization from the previous week's anomalous spurt.

The bigger question to ask is, where art thou housing growth? Through April 8th, you are nowhere to be found. It would appear uncertainty from never or nether expected realm, lighting the Middle East ablaze, driving gasoline prices into desperate reaches, has the American consumer quite tight fisted. The real bad news is that I expect things to get worse, so hold off on that homebuilder liftoff we had previously foreseen, as these "other" factors overrule.

Editor's Note: Article should interest investors in Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), Freddie Mac (OTC: FMCC.OB), Fannie Mae (OTC: FNMA.OB), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC), Toronto Dominion (NYSE: TD), BB&T (NYSE: BBT), CIT (NYSE: CIT), Bank United (NYSE: BKU), First Citizens (OTC: FCNCA.PK), Synovus (NYSE: SNV), United Bankshares (Nasdaq: UBSI), Hampton Roads Bankshares (Nasdaq: HMPR), WesBanco (Nasdaq: WSBC), City Holding (Nasdaq: CHCO), Sandy Spring (Nasdaq: SASR), First Citizens (OTC: FCBN.OB), SCBT Financial (Nasdaq: SCBT), Wilmington Trust (NYSE: WL), WSFS Financial (Nasdaq: WSFS), Southside Bancshares (Nasdaq: SBSI), Stellar One (Nasdaq: STEL), Union First Market (Nasdaq: UBSH), Eagle Bancorp (Nasdaq: EGBN), First Bancorp (Nasdaq: FBNC), Ameris (Nasdaq: ABCB), The Bancorp (Nasdaq: TBBK), First Community (Nasdaq: FCBC), Capital City (Nasdaq: CCBG), Financial Institutions (Nasdaq: FISI), National Bankshares (Nasdaq: NKSH), Citizens & Northern (Nasdaq: CZNC), Charter Financial (Nasdaq: CHFN), Seacoast Banking (Nasdaq: SBCF), TIB Financial (Nasdaq: TIBB), American National (Nasdaq: AMNB), United Community (Nasdaq: UCBI), Middleburg Financial (Nasdaq: MBRG), Heritage Financial (Nasdaq: HBOS), Zions Bancorp (Nasdaq: ZION), East West Bancorp (Nasdaq: EWBC), City National (NYSE: CYN), Bank of Hawaii (NYSE: BOH), SVB Financial (Nasdaq: SIVB), Westamerica (Nasdaq: WABC), Cathay General (Nasdaq: CATY), Umpqua (Nasdaq: UMPQ), Glacier Bancorp (Nasdaq: GBCI), Pacific Capital (Nasdaq: PCBC), PacWest (Nasdaq: PACW), Western Alliance (NYSE: WAL), First National Alaska (OTC: FBAK.OB), First Interstate Bancsystem (Nasdaq: FIBK), Nara (Nasdaq: NARA), West Coast (Nasdaq: WCBO), TriCo (Nasdaq: TCBK), Territorial (Nasdaq: TBNK), Washington Banking (Nasdaq: WCBO), Bank of Marin (Nasdaq: BMRC), Hanmi (Nasdaq: HAFC), PNC Bank (NYSE: PNC), J.P. Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM), United Bankshares (Nasdaq: UBSI), Bank of New York Mellon (NYSE: BK), MB Financial (Nasdaq: MBFI), Astoria Financial (NYSE: AF), New York Community (NYSE: NYB), Hudson City (Nasdaq: HCBK), People's United (Nasdaq: PBCT), First Niagra (Nasdaq: FNFG), Capitol Federal (Nasdaq: CFFN), Washington Federal (Nasdaq: WFSL), Investor’s Bancorp (Nasdaq: ISBC), Northwest Bankshares (Nasdaq: NWBI), Sterling Financial (Nasdaq: STSA), Ocwen (NYSE: OCN), Flagstar (NYSE: FBC), Provident (NYSE: PFS), Colombia Banking (Nasdaq: COLB), Kearny (Nasdaq: KRNY), Brookline (Nasdaq: BRKL), Dime Community (Nasdaq: DCOM), Flushing Financial (Nasdaq: FFIC), Danvers (Nasdaq: DNBK).

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