Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey Weed

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Wall Street Greek suggested in our weekly preview that weekly mortgage application activity was disrupted by weather in its latest reporting. We feel our insight has been verified by this week's reflexive bounce.

"Mortgage Activity increased in the week ended July 3rd, and several major media outlets are reporting the news as if it were a "green shoot." It's a weed folks, and you heard it here first!"

Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey

Mortgage applications activity increased in the week ended July 3rd, and several major media outlets are reporting the news as if it were a "green shoot." It's a weed folks, and you heard it here first! Last week's data showed sharp decline in mortgage activity despite favorable rate change. Contracted 30-year fixed rate mortgages adjusted to 5.34%, from 5.44% in the week ended June 26. Yet, the Market Composite Index dropped 18.9%, after seasonal adjustment. The Refinance Index sank 30.0%, and recently resilient Purchase Activity fell 4.5%. We pointed to notable levels of rainfall through the measured period, and this week's data seems to verify its impact.

Even as contracted rates on 30-year fixed rate mortgages held steady at 5.34%, and as 15-year contracts inched higher, mortgage application activity reportedly climbed significantly. The Market Composite Index of activity showed an improvement of 10.9%, after adjustment for the shortened holiday week. This adjustment may have also exacerbated the special impact of the prior week's weather. Refinance Activity increased 15.2% and the Purchase Index rose a strong 6.7%, but pick the weed folks.


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