Is Swine Flu a Weapon of Biological Attack?

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What if the outbreak were not a coincidence of biological evolution. What if Swine Influenza (Flu) H1N1 was in fact the weapon of a biological attack? Consider this...

If you were planning an attack on the United States using a bio-engineered virus, how would you go about it to avoid detection? Well, I believe many of the natural routes and passages that have allowed this particular swine strain to so easily become the concern of the world, and a direct threat to the United States, offer an opportunity to reverse-engineer the possible plan behind it.

The advantages of using Mexico for instance are:

1. Mexico is easy to infiltrate with a weapon of mass destruction, and worlds easier than the US
   
2. Mexicans both legally and illegally cross the border into the US at an incredible rate, allowing for effective spreading of the disease into the US
   
3. Mexico City is one of the most populated urban centers in the world, giving the virus a perfect incubation environment, and providing the disease with ample opportunity to spread beyond control
   
4. The Mexican government is not as adept as the United States at: (1) noticing and identifying a new disease before it has spread too far; (2) containing it once discovered; (3) and Mexico is also likely to wait too long before notifying disease control experts that might contain and eradicate a new virus
   

Clearly, using Mexico as an incubation center for an attack on the United States makes strategic sense for our enemies and would-be enemies. If this virus had been born in the United States, the chances of it being contained would have been much greater. As it stands now, the CDC, WHO and Department of Homeland Security agree that Swine Flu is realistically beyond containment at this point. So, if a biological weapon, than H1N1 was employed effectively.

Using the Flu Defies Some Logic, But Not All

A biological attack of this means, using a virus like Swine Influenza (Flu), seems to make little sense due to risk of self destruction. So, why would one of our enemies use a weapon that is more likely to kill a greater multitude of its own citizens than our own? After all, the United States has a well-developed health care infrastructure and a tight plan for containment and treatment. In answering this, I must first remind readers that not all of our potential enemies are sensible and logical war strategists, and they cannot be counted on to play to plan. However, I would attribute a hypothetical attack in this case to a different reasoning other than pure homicidal mania. I'll tell you why this event, if planned, makes perfect sense for many of our current adversaries.

al-Qaeda

al-Qaeda is an organization about to come under a long-overdue intensification of pressure from a United States led UN initiative into Afghanistan and the borderland tribal areas of Pakistan. Perhaps feeling the heat, AQ has turned eastward of late, seeking to infiltrate and disease Pakistan from the inside out. At the same, it may now be more likely to lash out at the United States with whatever means it may possess.

If I may stray for a moment...

The Taliban has made great inroads into Pakistan over a very short span, and as a result, it has drawn the attention of both the United States and the Pakistani government. Shariah Law, the extremely strict rule of law employed by Islamic fundamentalists and abhorred by human rights activists, has made its way eastward with the Taliban to as close as 100 miles from Islamabad. Pakistan has responded with new troop deployments and air bombardments that have forced the Taliban to pull back temporarily. Even so, since the assassination of Benazir Bhutto, it has become clearer that the Taliban and al-Qaeda have a much greater long-term interest in Pakistan than just safe passage. Pakistani rulers who may have overlooked too many things might soon end up like the man who raised a crocodile only to see it eat him when it was all growed up.

What greater a nation for AQ to control than Pakistan, with its nuclear stockpile and advanced missile technology. After all, mountain life can grow tiresome, even for a terrorist. Through its grassroots effort, Pakistan might even open up to the possible entry of a foreign born leader some day, namely Osama bin Laden or Ayman al-Zawahiri. I realize how far-fetched this may seem, but in a nation where Islamic Law is at least as important as nationality, well, stranger things have happened. Not less concerning, someone equally dangerous could rise to power through normal means and open the gate from the inside.

What about biological attacks...

al-Qaeda is an organization that benefits from global chaos. For it is within chaos that a flame can burn freely into a wildfire. The terror that germ warfare creates also fits al-Qaedo's MO. Biological weapons are the easiest weapons of mass destruction to produce. For a technologically constrained and border absent entity that is on the run, biological weapons represent the most likely WMD threat attainable, in my humble opinion. While nuclear and chemical weapons may also be attainable, these are more easily traced.

With its back against the wall, a biological attack by the terrorist organization now seems to make perfect sense. AQ is like a cornered dog, with Pakistan and the United States raising the stakes. A cornered dog is prone to bite, and if he has teeth, these seem like the most likely.

Iran

People have been telling me for years that a war with Iran will never happen, but I am comfortable in contention with them. The reason is because these same folks once told me Iran wanted nuclear energy. And I'm not talking about Joe Schmo from the local pub, but an anonymous UN representative I happened to cross paths with one evening (at the local pub), a representative of a close ally of our nation (and not Greek nor Cypriot). I was ahead of the game back then, but it still seemed like logical consequence to me, even some five years ago.

Today, despite President Obama's brave and brilliant attempt at outreach, I continue to believe a stubborn Iran with years and money invested will not back away from its program, nor tailor it to our requirements. Only one nation would have this kind of knowledge for sure, and that would be Iran. So, given this assumption, why wouldn't Iran, a beneficiary of our busy case load, offer us a big biological mess to add to the rest of our troubles. This seems even more likely as Israel solidifies its new government and very likely prepares for the inevitable.

North Korea

North Korea has been walking the fence between entering normal world relations and progressing toward something unsavory. One might say we've been played though. What separates North Korea from the other two wild cards is that the Communist North is not currently within our cross-hairs. However, who can know how Kim Jung-Il got ill... and who can predict how a paranoid government led by Kim might act at any time, let alone after a significant health scare.

We're talking about a country that kidnaps foreign women and starves it populous for the sake of military development and progression of a criminal state... so logical reasoning is a bit skewed. Is it coincidence that Korea has backed away now from its pledges to enter the world of nations and to halt its nuclear weapon and missile development? I fear not, and I cannot imagine that the otherwise tiny enemies of the United States would not cooperate with one another. So, even if it were not directly involved in the theoretical biological attack, it may well have knowledge of it.

The greatest red flag regarding North Korea's potential use of biological weaponry would be its isolation. What nation has the least concern about a global pandemic, if not an isolated prison state.

"Other" Powers

Other powers might find value in further injuring the United States, because a shift away from the dollar system might benefit our closer rivals over the long run. Recently, China has publicly called for such a development. Russia would also like to see the US-reinforced NATO off its turf, and oil priced higher, both natural consequences of a weaker dollar. For certain, keeping us busy at home and limiting our financial means weakens our bargaining position on global issues. If you think our rivals to the east are too wise to take such risk, I would point toward the many blatant examples of moral disregard that have been displayed for the world to see all too often. Do I need to name them...

While pointing my finger, I cannot overlook our own mistakes from years past. Our ongoing military development is inspired by a sort of paranoia, distrust and perverted logic not too dissimilar from that of our Korean pals. Who could blame us though right, when the potential for another Hitler rising to power somewhere cannot be ruled out, and with so many wild cards on the loose... and so we build and build and build so that when we blow up our planet, the rest of the universe might see.

In Conclusion

So we have made logical cases for biological weapon development and employment by our adversaries, and we know this current Swine Flu strain could easily be man made. It was not but five years ago that we openly discussed the creation of a new strain of virus ourselves. The CDC said it wanted to understand how one might develop in the wild, and therefore, maybe gain knowledge that might allow for its eventual eradication. We know biological weapon development more potent than Swine Flu is not fantasy fiction. So then why couldn't this epidemic be man-made, given just some of the possible reasons listed above.

After its economic hit, the United States is like a boxer stunned by a clean blow. Our enemies might hope to seize upon our momentary daze, especially with a new president in office, and such a nice guy at that. Some view weakness in kindness, but your author sees greater strength in tolerance, especially when that tolerance is viewed as weakness. Still, in this world full of ravenous and savage animals (read men), the tolerant can expect to be tested.

Whether its man-made or natural, a weapon or a means for a global wake up call, Swine Flu must now be dealt with. For the sake of the global population, your fathers, mothers, brothers, sisters, aunts, uncles, cousins, friends and even enemies, this foe to humanity must be the focus of united effort. Finally, development of WMD, and in this case biological weaponry, including those that target food crops must be stopped before they stop humanity.

Inspired by Thomas Merton


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