Russia, Iran and Intelligence Sharing

By Yal - Reporter, Middle Eastern Affairs

There are reports that Russian advisers have analyzed the significant Israeli air force drill that was performed over the Eastern Mediterranean more than two weeks ago.

Israel leaked news of the drill, in which Israeli Air Force jets flew all the way to Greece and covered a similar distance to that which would be necessary to reach Iran from Israel. However, a leak was not really needed, as every air force and intelligence operation in the area was following the drill. Egyptian President Mubarak even joked about it to an Israeli TV crew during an interview. He said, "It looked as if you had concurred half of the Mediterranean."

It is believed that Russian analysis indicates the drill was in fact a major operation of disinformation by Israel. The Russians combined uses of radar and listening posts to study signal intelligence of every word and radar signature that was emitted from all Israeli planes, and their conclusion was reportedly given to Iran.

I believe it read like this: Israel is bluffing to make it appear as if the attack would be coming from Turkey. There are rumors that the recent Israeli attack on the Syrian reactor (Sep 2007) also involved deception. For example, we note the recent discovery of extra fuel tanks marked in Hebrew from IAF planes; these were found on Turkish soil as if they had been jettisoned from the Israeli planes during a detour over Turkey into Syria. The Russians have concluded that this means an Israeli attack would be coming from over Iraq and not from Turkey. I expect the Russians transmitted this information to the Iranians.

Additional reports are asserting that the Russians are helping Iran shore up it's AA systems. Yet, one has to wonder if Russia and Iran are really on the same side here. After all, Iran is believed to be behind much of the Islamic revolt in many of Russia's controlled areas of the Caucuses. Also, if Iran is taken out of the world oil supply picture, Russia would be the biggest benefactor with access to all of Asia including China.

When oil prices drop, like over the last two days in a row, Wall Street needs to remember that the looming Israeli-Iran war is still a very real likelihood. Iran wants to have nukes and Israel is determined not to allow the inaction of others to again place the Jewish people into grave danger…..

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