The Greek's Week Ahead - The Prince is Dead! Long Live the King!

The Greek's Week Ahead has been engineered to prepare you for the events that could impact your portfolio this week.

There's no rest for the weary. Start your engines folks, here we go again. This week portends to be just as volatile as the week just passed. Citigroup (NYSE: C) kept busy over the weekend, conveying a special meeting of its board within which CEO Chuck Prince offered his resignation. Citigroup directors could be heard chanting, "The Prince is dead! Long live the King!" What's worse is that more bad news is anticipated out of Citi on Monday or later in the week, as it is expected to announce a larger charge than its recently surpassed record setting figure (surpassed only by Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER)). Citi moved Rubin into the Chairman's seat, while Sir Win Bischoff (Head of Citi Europe) takes over as interim CEO. Citi's accountants were reportedly working overtime this weekend figuring out exactly how much asset to chop. What all this means to you is that you can expect equities to get off to a rather rocky start to the week.

The Greek expects Monday to actually offer follow through on a medium-term trading trend begun on the Fed Policy Statement. An important message was conveyed within last week's mayhem. Did you catch it? The week marked an important inflection point, in The Greek's view. The Federal Reserve Board effectively shifted gears into neutral, and out of the high gear that drove equities upward since the Fed's August 16 emergency conference call. Stocks, as measured by the performance of the S&P 500 Index, rose 7% from August 16 through last week. Stocks were up 10.9% at their October peak, before I suggest they began to anticipate the Fed meeting, and as earnings season pulled a fast one over most analysts, as well as investors in the financial sector.

Just as the Fed shifted direction to purely expansionary and stocks moved higher in August, the Fed's recently clear message was not missed by the smart money, and should set the trend lower now. Sure, speculative interests (read dumb money) could send oil to over $100 for a second or two, especially with martial law in effect in Pakistan. President Musharraf helped oil trade fervor by declaring the reason behind his actions as dire and imminent threat. Musharraf basically dissolved the Supreme Court ahead of an important decision about the legality of his reelection.

I expect the dollar drop bet is squeezed for all its juice now as well. As the dollar stabilizes and OPEC increases production, while crying all the way to the spigot, oil seems sure to fall. The economy is cooling, despite the conspicuous nonfarm payroll figure reported on Friday. Finally, I don't know about you folks, but I'm betting on another Al Gore Christmas, where bikinis may be more appropriate (and fun) than wool sweaters. Yeah, oil is going lower. Let the frenzied traders take it to the triple-digit mark on this Pakistan panic, but the clear direction in my eyes is lower from here over the medium term. But hey, what do I know... I'm only the guy who called the oil bottom in February to the hour (Department of Energy's historical price page). I'm calling the top now, while we still may exceed the ballyhooed $100 mark in the very short term.

To repeat the message I broadcast last week after the Fed announcement, I expect gold is overdone now as well, while the dollar should stabilize and strengthen. I expect economic data flow to continue soft, though without the prevailing expectation that Fed support is there to uplift us. And if the market begins to price Fed support into stocks again, I would swiftly exit all long positions before the December meeting, since I expect the Fed will hold pat on that day. And let me be absolutely clear that I am bearish equities generally now, and gold and oil stocks especially. Capital has got to flow somewhere though, and Health Care held up well last week. I like the defensive plays in the sector, while I would avoid speculation within lower quality biotechs. Barron's noted institutional support of utilities is low, while these stocks may offer the dividends old financial sector money preferred. I, however, like pharmarceuticals for this purpose.

Now, this week will present a real test to the Fed and its resolve against inflation. After its neutral notation on Wednesday, the financial sector blew up, and the Fed had to pump a reported $41 billion into the financial system. Within a day of the Fed announcement, talking heads were calling Bernanke's bluff. Let me say it in plain Philly English - he ain't bluffin folks. Still, a parade of Fed governors will find microphones this week, so there will be plenty of odds-making and reading into statements as a result.

The week ahead...

Monday could get ugly, depending on what news comes out of Citigroup, and as if out of a Godzilla film, Citi is listing shares in Tokyo on Monday. Keeping with that theme, the Bank of Japan is scheduled to release the minutes of its September meeting this same day.

Other than the usual fuss related to near certain international market decline Monday, 10:00 AM brings the reporting of the ISM Non-Manufacturing Survey. ISM's manufacturing report, showing 50.9 for October, drifted ever so close to that threshold point of 50 that signifies the line between expansion and contraction.

In contrast, Friday's jobs report indicated the service sector added 190,000 jobs in October. Logic would seem to indicate that this means the state of the service sector, as seen by ISM, should be rosy. The thinking of Bloomberg's consensus is right along those lines, as expectations stand for a reading of 54.0.

The Senior Loan-Officer Survey comes out this week, and as reported by Barron's, Lehman Brothers is looking for indication of further tightening of credit standards. Apparently these exist now. In what may be the most important news of the day, influential Fed Governor, and Bernanke pal, Fred Mishkin is scheduled to speak to a risk-management conference, while Governor Kroszner addresses a group on mortgage lending.

Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) is expected to break its news on its foray into mobile phones, and the earnings schedule gets revving again. Some of the more notable reports will emanate from American Science & Engineering (Nasdaq: ASEI), Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE: APC), Burger King (NYSE: BKC), Cardinal Health (NYSE: CAH), Marvel Entertainment (NYSE: MVL), TETRA Technologies (NYSE: TTI), Tsakos Energy Navigation (NYSE: TNP) and others.

As retailers hit the on deck circle for their round of reports, and as Black Friday swiftly approaches, Tuesday's ICSC-UBS Weekly Same-Store Sales Report gains prominence. Sales increased 2.5% last week on a year-over-year basis. In other news, the Fed Chief will take to the podium on Tuesday, as he addresses a microfinance conference.

Privately held, outside of Microsoft's (Nasdaq: MSFT) recent stake, Facebook is set to unveil a new marketing system. Barron's touched on the subject in its article "Google Rides to the Rescue of Facebook's Rivals." The day's earnings slate is headlined by Aegean Marine Petroleum (NYSE: ANW), Archer Daniels Midland (NYSE: ADM), Blue Nile (Nasdaq: NILE), Chesapeake Energy (NYSE: CHK), Headwaters (NYSE: HW), Holly Corp. (NYSE: HOC), IndyMac Bancorp (NYSE: IMB), Jacobs Engineering (NYSE: JEC), MasTec (NYSE: MTZ), Molson Coors (NYSE: TAP), Peabody Energy (NYSE: BTU), Pioneer Natural Resources (NYSE: PXD), TheStreet.com (Nasdaq: TSCM), Valero Energy (NYSE: VLO) and a bunch more.

Wednesday gets going with the Mortgage Bankers Association Purchase Applications Report. Aided by low rates and bank incentive, refinancings have been on the rise. Countrywide (NYSE: CFC) last week announced plans to move $16 billion of ARMS loans holders into more secure financing. At the same time, CFC chastised the U.S. government for not following up its public relations moves with substantive action.

At 8:30, the third quarter reporting of nonfarm productivity and labor costs threatens to raise economic concerns again. Productivity is seen 3.2% better by Bloomberg's consensus, after improving 2.6% in Q2. Progress here was rumored dead or dying earlier this year, but it seems American innovation persists. Unit labor costs are expected to rise 1.0%, and with employment reportedly holding up, here's to hoping pay isn't, for the sake of the Fed. It's really a win win situation though right, as consumers could use every penny nowadays. So, however this figure is reported, it's likely to drive stocks in a positive fashion.

September Wholesale Inventory is set for report at 10:00, while August inventories rose just 0.1%. The 10:30 reporting of Petroleum Status by the EIA is likely to get a drum roll this week after recent weeks' soft inventory data in a period that should be allowing for build. I think out of the box at times like these, when things just don't make sense. The domestic economy is supposedly slowing (and I think it is), OPEC is raising production, and yet inventory build is suspect. I suspect the filling of the strategic oil reserve is running a bit ahead of reported schedule, as the U.S. seeks to avoid tipping off Iran as to just when it will be ready to bomb. The reported schedule has fireworks set for late March. I suspect we'll be ready quite a bit ahead of that date in reality.

The change in consumer credit, to be reported at 3:00 PM, is expected to measure $9.0 billion. With other sources of capital drying up for much of America, the good old reliable and expensive plastic is still available just in time for holiday shopping. You can expect this tally to continue expanding.

Wednesday's earnings report schedule includes Alcan (NYSE: AL), American International Group (NYSE: AIG), Amkor Technology (Nasdaq: AMKR), Aqua America (NYSE: WTR), Churchill Downs (Nasdaq: CHDN), Cisco Systems (Nasdaq: CSCO), Coherent (Nasdaq: COHR), Devon Energy (NYSE: DVN), Expedia (Nasdaq: EXPE), Fluor (NYSE: FLR), Foster Wheeler (Nasdaq: FWLT), General Motors (NYSE: GM), Heely's (Nasdaq: HLYS), Kinross Gold (NYSE: KGC), News Corp. (NYSE: NWS), Polo Ralph Lauren (NYSE: RL), Sara Lee (NYSE: SLE), Service Corp. (NYSE: SCI), Time Warner (NYSE: TWX), Toyota Motor (NYSE: TM), Yamana Gold (NYSE: AUY) and others.

On Thursday, the Bank of England, which hasn't taken action on interest rates since July's quarter point hike, is mostly expected to hold rates steady this time around. A few minutes later the European Central Bank is scheduled to announce its decision on rates. The ECB has not acted since its June 6 hike of a quarter point. Jean-Claude Trichet has talked a tough game, but the group is seen keeping rates steady again. A hike now could hurt the dollar a bit more, and lead it to retest lows against the euro, but I'm not expecting that.

Weekly Initial Jobless Claims are expected to measure 330,000, compared to 327,000 seen the week before. The EIA is scheduled to report natural gas inventories, as oil starts to reach levels that make switching from heating oil over to natural gas a real possibility (if oil were to hold, and you know my view on this).

Retailers are due to report individual same-store sales for the month of October on Thursday, and this could help provide fuel for the equity turn around I have called for here. That's unless investors begin to price in something different than the Fed has announced.

Thursday's earnings schedule includes American States Water (NYSE: AWR), Ballard Power (Nasdaq: BLDP), Barr Pharmaceuticals (NYSE: BRL), Biovail (NYSE: BVF), CAE (NYSE: CGT), California Pizza Kitchen (Nasdaq: CPKI), Cephalon (Nasdaq: CEPH), Clear Channel Communications (NYSE: CCU), Corrections Corp. of America (NYSE: CXW), Cosi (Nasdaq: COSI), Dean Foods (NYSE: DF), Delta Petroleum (Nasdaq: DPTR), DTE Energy (NYSE: DTE), Ford Motor (NYSE: F), Hansen Natural (Nasdaq: HANS), Hospira (NYSE: HSP), Hecla Mining (NYSE: HL), King Pharmaceuticals (NYSE: KG), Live Nation (NYSE: LYV), Marsh & McLennan (NYSE: MMC), National Fuel Gas (NYSE: NFG), NVIDIA Corp. (Nasdaq: NVDA), Priceline.com (Nasdaq: PCLN), Station Casinos (NYSE: STN), The Knot (Nasdaq: KNOT), Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL), U.S. Physical Therapy (Nasdaq: USPH), Walt Disney (NYSE: DIS) and more.

On Friday, a trio of important economic data will meet close review. Bloomberg's consensus of economists is looking for an import price rise of 1% in October, following a 1% increase in September. After narrowing and surprising on the short side in August, the trade deficit is seen expanding to $58.5 billion in September. Import prices and the trade deficit should be impacted by rising oil prices. The declining dollar provides an offset as it supports export sales, but not enough of one this time around.

The third of the three reports will be the University of Michigan's preliminary Consumer Sentiment Report for November. Sentiment has trended lower all year long, as has same-store sales growth. Thus far, the consumer has bent a decent amount, and his breakpoint may be nearing. Sentiment is expected to measure 80.0 in November, compared to 82.0 in October. A second important sentiment figure is due for release on Friday, the RBC Cash Index. This metric swings somewhat wildly, and is coming up to October's figure of 80.6. I suspect this month's reading will be near October's, or lower.

Friday's earnings schedule closes out the week with reports from 4Kids Entertainment (NYSE: KDE), Allianz SE (NYSE: AZ), Ameren (NYSE: AEE), Brooks Automation (Nasdaq: BRKS), Consolidated Water (Nasdaq: CWCO), Dominion Homes (Nasdaq: DHOM), DRS Technologies (NYSE: DRS), Goldcorp (NYSE: GG), Huntsman Corp. (NYSE: HUN), Mirant (NYSE: MIR), Pacific Ethanol (Nasdaq: PEIX), Petroleum Helicopters (Nasdaq: PHIIK), Six Flags (NYSE: SIX), Sotheby's (NYSE: BID), Uranium Resources (Nasdaq: URRE) and others.

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