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Seeking Alpha

Wednesday, September 19, 2007

Today's Key Market News - The Right Stuff


(Stocks in article: NYSE: MS, NYSE: GIS, Nasdaq: LEND, NYSE: GLW, NYSE: PG, NYSE: AIR, Nasdaq: DBRN)

The Federal Reserve answered the market's plea for help yesterday, and we're off to the races. Here's what your resident skeptic sees coming next though... Based on the Fed's Policy Statement, we do not view this move as part of a traditional string of moves. In recent times, the Fed has acted, and then acted, and then acted again, in a methodical and long drawn out fashion to move the economy in a predictable and nudging way. This leaves most market participants expecting more rate cuts to come. However, we expect something different.

Now that Ben has sort of succumbed to the will of the administration, and the Senate and House economic committees, we expect the stubborn soul, and the rest of those stingy, proud folk at economic police headquarters, to turn cold. The Statement itself offers both a willingness to support the economy (read market) and a continued eye on inflation. Human psychology says a lot for what happens next. The Fed has given its government overseers what they wanted, but they likely will now need to flex their muscles a bit. We expect some tough talk and clear indications in the near-term that will make it apparent that the Fed's next move remains uncertain.

Until that day, however, we look clear to rise. Remember though, September 24 marks the start of the Annual Assembly at the United Nations. Iran will now come to focus. Oh, and did anybody notice that Israel just declared Gaza an enemy of state. Basically, the all clear has been given to move tanks and wrecking crews through Gaza to remove the scourge of Hamas. We fully expect this pressure to be redirected toward the head of Mahmoud Abbas. If there was one guy I wouldn't want to be through the rest of this decade, or life, whichever comes first, it would be Abbas.

Top Ten Guys I Wouldn't Want to Be:
  1. Mahmoud Abbas, stuck between a rock and a hard place
  2. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, with no place to hide
  3. Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, an even slower guy with nowhere to hide
  4. Any villager in Iran watching it rain steel
  5. General Petraeus
  6. Mikheil Saakashvili, or anybody standing in Putin's way
  7. Hillary Clinton once she wins nomination and the Republicans take aim
  8. Pervez Musharraf, facing potential Islamic revolution
  9. A member of the Saudi royal family, facing inevitable uprising
  10. A Chinese citizen, with food running out and misguided leadership

In the stock specific news below, several important earnings reports hit the wire this morning. Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) missed its profit forecast, after Lehman Brothers (NYSE: LEH) surprised on the upside yesterday. It does not really matter at this point, since the Fed move will raise all ships. The saga that was the acquisition of Accredited Home Lenders (Nasdaq: LEND) appears to be nearing an end, and a good one for shareholders. LEND managed to keep its suitor at the table, albeit it at gunpoint, but it appears the two have agreed to a price they both can swallow, for now... Please find today's most important stories below:


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