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Seeking Alpha

Thursday, August 16, 2007

Today's Key Market News - Greek Senses Panic


(Stocks in article: CFC, AMGN, FTD, JCP, WW)

Yesterday's afternoon skid sent Asian investors jogging (not running) for the exits today, and the fear has only spread to Europe. This morning, futures appeared ready to send the market into full-fledged crash mode earlier. Then the smart people woke up. Still, the Greek senses panic taking over the mindset of investors, retail and institution alike. We understand why.

The Fed is trashing its credibility. William Poole should probably be kept in isolation, for his own safety at this point. I can imagine what would happen if he were to run into Jim Cramer on the open street. Seriously though, statements like "only calamity would justify a Fed easing" are just not necessary. Keep your damn mouth shut Poole. Today's Greekism is borrowed from "If you don't have something nice to say, don't say anything at all." Greekism: "Shut the hell up Poole!" Cheerleader Hank Paulson may be waking up. He actually noticed the subprime mess spreading, and now he's talking about how the economy can withstand this market turmoil. If I wanted a cheerleader, I would go to a football game man!

In this week's "Greek's Week Ahead - The Fed, Treating the Symptoms," we told you housing sentiment wouldn't be too rosy, and the starts data would likely reflect the realities of the day, finally. And last week, we told you Bernanke had doomed his career with the decision not to cut rates in our article, "Role Reversal: Barry Bonds Homers, Bernanke Strikes Out." So, what are you saying now Greek? We're telling you now that we sense the kind of panic that drives severe correction, and believe it or not, we are sensing a potential buying opportunity soon after. Remember, that time will be when the blood on the street is worst of all; it will be the hardest time to make the decision. Keep in mind, it may take a couple days before consensus money recognizes it. Also, keep in mind that messy war or severe terrorism (nuclear explosion type stuff), and all bets are off until the Greek reassesses the severity of the situation. I say this, because these are in the realm of possibility, but not yet driving market action. However, often unknowns drive the imminent correction.

What I want to leave you with now is, fear not. I'm not saying pretend things are all a figment of our imagination, like CNBC's Erin Burnett would have you think with her statements that perception could become reality and her labeling of sellers as "lemmings." For those of you who don't know, the lemming is a small rodent famous for running into its own death. That's just naive, and frankly demeaning to many of you who have actually experienced economic difficulties. We like Erin for her wholesome, honest character (not to mention she's cute), but the market is dynamic and that should be recognized. No, we have recognized economic troubles here for nearly a year, and we're not going to downplay them now. We're just telling you that eventually the Fed will have to ease because that calamity Poole spoke of is likely, in our view.

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