Wake Up Call - Pounding the Table, RETAIL RECALL!

The purpose of "Wake Up Call" is to provide you with the market-moving news of the day, hand chosen, with value-added original commentary.

What's the difference between Wall Street Greek and many other financial market expert bloggers and Mickey Mouse shop independent equity research firms? Wall Street Greek writes value-added reports about market catalysts before they occur. We are not reporting the news here, we're predicting it, and accurately. This morning the International Council of Shopping Centers and UBS Securities reported that April's retail sales, to be reported on Friday, could show the first decrease in sales in four years. Where did you hear that before? Oh yeah, in this week's edition of "The Greek's Week Ahead." In the issue, and recent other works, we have posited that the market will soon be driven by weakening consumer spending, driven lower that is. Just yesterday, ahead of this ICSC report, we called for a downside surprise in Friday's retail data. After today, you can expect strategists across the country to get busy reducing expectations for retail sales (so they don't look bad) from where they stood this morning. Economists were looking for a rise of 0.4% for April's retail sales before this news broke.

Major U.S. indices have opened lower this morning on concern that tomorrow's FOMC meeting, today's same-store sales data and Friday's retail sales report could derail the market from its current path.

Asia:
Hang Seng Index -0.91%; Shanghai/Shenzhen CSI 300 +3.58%; NIKKEI 225 -0.7%; S&P/ASX 200 -0.49%; Taiwan TAIEX -0.24%; BSE SENSEX 30 -0.82%; KRX 100 +0.08%; Ho Chi Minh +3.23%

U.K., Europe & Middle East:
DJ STOXX 50 Index -0.6%; FTSE 100 -0.72%; CAC 40 -0.73%; DAX -1.5%; Russian RTS Index -0.62%; ASE General -1.43%; Tel Aviv 25 -0.98%; Tadawul All Share +1.04%; DFM General +0.66%

Our value-added take on today's key news:

• *** ICSC-UBS says April's retail sales may show first decline in four years, due to one of the coldest April's in history and the timing of Easter. Recall, Wall Street Greek quoted these factors and weakening consumer spending, on tighter credit and increased costs of living, as the future drivers of consumer softness. We cite this as the driver of your market correction in future months.
• *** Two different factors are set against each other this morning in driving oil prices. Pipeline attacks in Nigeria are geared to pressure prices higher, while anticipation for bearish oil and gasoline status reports tomorrow are expected to take away from oil's recent strength. Wall Street Greek changed its long term outlook for oil to neutral last week, but we are retaining our near term expectation for oil prices to weaken now on increasing attention to a softening U.S. domestic economy. Considering the run oil made on Iranian tensions and gasoline refinery issues, we view oil producers likely to see pressure in their shares over the short term.
• *** Earnings season rolls on, so catch Yahoo!'s calendar here.

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