The Greek's Week Ahead - Play Ball! Not War
The Greek's Week Ahead has been engineered to prepare you for events that could impact your portfolio this week.
As a born strategist and analyst, I naturally take keen interest in chess, war and baseball. With Sunday's start of the new season of our nation's favorite pastime, spring is officially sprung for many of us. In these times of growing geopolitical and economic stresses, it's nice to have baseball. My idea of a good time is cracking open a beer, lighting a tasty cigar and relaxing with a live telecast of my favorite team, with my only companion being the soothing voice of a classic announcer. Nothing beats it, except maybe catching a game in person with my brother, and smelling the freshly cut grass, tasting the mustard covered dogs, and washing down salty sunflower seeds with watery yet ridiculously expensive beer. In springtime, my worst inflationary concern is high how the price of a hot dog and beer could rise. In thinking about the wars I see ahead of us, I wish the world could understand baseball, because I think if it could, a troubling communication barrier could be broken and a certain, unique peace shared, at least until the third out of the ninth inning.
The ignorance of the Iranian government was never more clearly exhibited than during this weekend's parade of prisoners on Iranian television. In Iran's effort to break down internal political divide through the public presentation of British sailors contradicting the evidence depicted by the U.K. and the United States, they have placed their nation's people in grave danger. They have successfully inspired anger, frustration and action from their political foes as well as loyalists. Sunday morning as I watched CNN's coverage of protests in Tehran, on the doorstep of the embassy of the United Kingdom, I could not help but be reminded of the protests that led to the irresponsible overrun of the U.S. embassy in 1979. I was relatively young, but the images and nightly news casts counting the days of the hostage crisis are embedded on my mind as deeply as the wrinkles of the perpetually sunburned old women in the villages of my favorite Greek isle. If that outrage recurs because of this ignorant and foolish decision, the Iranian bloodshed that will follow is on the hands and souls of the Ayatollahs.
Iran's reasons for taking the hostages are many, and their reasons for keeping them are seemingly growing. However, the unavoidable reason for returning them is self-preservation, and I believe that somewhere beneath the bravado, they understand that. I expect the Iranian's are taking what they can now from the embarrassment of Great Britain, and will return the sailors before risking war. In my unlimited and multi-dimensional thought, I cannot help but consider what a brilliant, though near impossible to execute, plan this might have been for the CIA to keep the United Kingdom on board in the Middle East. The world knows what pressure the administrations of Blair and Bush have fallen under due to their strategy and execution concerning Iraq. The once confident Blair has recently sounded confused as he seems to backtrack from his positions of the past. President Bush was humiliated by a Congress that defiantly voiced dissension to our campaign in Iraq through its vote for a time line for the withdrawal of American troops.
Tony Blair recently announced that the United Kingdom would withdraw its troops from Iraq, and he also expressed serious concern about war with Iran. What better way to turn the sentiment of the United Kingdom, than by testing the pride of its great people. I mean, these are people who have to be separated by fence to peacefully enjoy games between rival futbol clubs. A Chelsea/Arsenal match in old Highbury would be a hundred times uglier than a Giants/Eagles game in Philadelphia, without the barrier. People who can express that kind of allegiance for a futbol club, will unite quickly and fiercely behind Blair now.
We may never really know which nation's waters that commandeered British ship was in, but it does not even matter at this point. The British were acting under the mandate of the United Nations, and did not seek to provoke an incident with the Iranian navy. If only there were a Tehran Tigers to play with the Texas Rangers, then maybe sense would take hold...
This Week...
Remember that second leg of the housing crisis we were discussing back in January when the home builders and many experts were pointing toward a settling bottom. Take a look at the chart of Beazer Homes (BZH)... Okay, so Beazer's chart is a little more pronounced than the housing sector on the whole thanks to its investigation smorgasbord of four government organizations. Still, that second leg seems to be forming alongside all the poor news and data of the past couple weeks. This week's data is somewhat lacking of housing information, so it's possible these stocks could recover a bit, but that all depends on what new investigations are announced, if any.
We will jump right into the economic news flow Monday, as the important Institute of Supply Management index is reported for March. Bloomberg's consensus expects the reading of this key manufacturing report to measure 51.1, compared to 52.3 in February. While the service sector now drives the American economy, manufacturing data could helps us to imply how consumer demand might be shaping up, as well as how capital spending is progressing among businesses.
Even before the ISM report, overseas markets are likely to find influence from the quarterly tankan survey of business sentiment in Japan. While the recessed Congress will not make any noise this week, the President of the St. Louis Fed will address the Association for Business Economics on the topic of "Understanding Inflation."
On Tuesday, domestic auto sales for the month of March will be reported. Remember last month showed a surprise period of growth for General Motors. The status of this important American sector is likely to impact the market in some manner. Recent economic data and the credit tightening trend within the industry would seem to indicate a likelihood for that impact to be negative. Expect Tuesday earnings reports from International Speedway, Oxford Industries, Robbins & Myers and Pope & Talbot.
Factory orders are scheduled for report at 10:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday. The report for February is expected to show growth of 1.8%, versus a decrease of 5.6% in the previous period, according to Blomberg. If factory orders and the ISM report both show weakness, you should start to notice an increasing amount of talking heads discussing expectations for an increase in unemployment. Also, we believe more layoffs are coming from the construction sector. Imagine, as recently as January, Lennar's chief was speculating that his company might exceed first quarter estimates, and in March he announced that the spring selling season had yet to bloom and that he was pulling corporate guidance. We think it's safe to say, some firms have not yet reduced workforce enough, and that might cut into the earnings of Lennar (LEN) and others. We might get further insight into the situation from Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher, who will address the Austin Mortage Bankers Association on Wednesday.
Expect earnings news from Best Buy, Circuit City, Monsanto, Micron Technology, Acuity Brands, MSC Industrial, Immucor, Healthways Inc., Blyth Inc., and Georgia Gulf Corp. In overseas activity, the Reserve Bank of Australia will conclude its two-day meeting, and render a decision on interest rates.
On Thursday, the Bank of England will decide on its rates, and in light of recent data and news, we do not anticipate a change. Many international markets will be closed for holiday on Thursday. The Ching Ming festival will close the market in Hong Kong, while Holy Thursday is the reason for closure in Argentina, Colombia, Denmark, Mexico, Norway, the Philippines, Sweden and Venezuela. In the U.S., earnings reports are scheduled from Constellation Brands, RPM International, Schulman and WD-40 Co.
On Friday, many international markets and the equity and commodity markets in the United States are closed for Good Friday. The economists, however, seem to practice a different complex and scientific religion, and four important economic reports are due. At 8:30 a.m., March nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase by 130,000, according to Bloomberg's poll, compared to an increase of 97,000 in February. The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.6%, versus 4.5% in February. At 10:00 a.m., February wholesale inventories will be announced, with expectations set for an increase of 0.4%, versus a rise of 0.7% in January. Finally, at 3:00 p.m., consumer credit for the month of February will be announced.
Clearly the week's data will provide us with a signal on how the manufacturing segment is holding up, and its relationship with employment is likely to also be tested. We'll keep you updated on a daily basis, as we intend to return to our regular publishing schedule, and ad a nightly article as well on a few occasions this week.
To receive "The Greek's Week Ahead" and our daily reports via email, click here and provide us with your email address. We respect your privacy and will never share your information with any third party. (disclosure)
As a born strategist and analyst, I naturally take keen interest in chess, war and baseball. With Sunday's start of the new season of our nation's favorite pastime, spring is officially sprung for many of us. In these times of growing geopolitical and economic stresses, it's nice to have baseball. My idea of a good time is cracking open a beer, lighting a tasty cigar and relaxing with a live telecast of my favorite team, with my only companion being the soothing voice of a classic announcer. Nothing beats it, except maybe catching a game in person with my brother, and smelling the freshly cut grass, tasting the mustard covered dogs, and washing down salty sunflower seeds with watery yet ridiculously expensive beer. In springtime, my worst inflationary concern is high how the price of a hot dog and beer could rise. In thinking about the wars I see ahead of us, I wish the world could understand baseball, because I think if it could, a troubling communication barrier could be broken and a certain, unique peace shared, at least until the third out of the ninth inning.
The ignorance of the Iranian government was never more clearly exhibited than during this weekend's parade of prisoners on Iranian television. In Iran's effort to break down internal political divide through the public presentation of British sailors contradicting the evidence depicted by the U.K. and the United States, they have placed their nation's people in grave danger. They have successfully inspired anger, frustration and action from their political foes as well as loyalists. Sunday morning as I watched CNN's coverage of protests in Tehran, on the doorstep of the embassy of the United Kingdom, I could not help but be reminded of the protests that led to the irresponsible overrun of the U.S. embassy in 1979. I was relatively young, but the images and nightly news casts counting the days of the hostage crisis are embedded on my mind as deeply as the wrinkles of the perpetually sunburned old women in the villages of my favorite Greek isle. If that outrage recurs because of this ignorant and foolish decision, the Iranian bloodshed that will follow is on the hands and souls of the Ayatollahs.
Iran's reasons for taking the hostages are many, and their reasons for keeping them are seemingly growing. However, the unavoidable reason for returning them is self-preservation, and I believe that somewhere beneath the bravado, they understand that. I expect the Iranian's are taking what they can now from the embarrassment of Great Britain, and will return the sailors before risking war. In my unlimited and multi-dimensional thought, I cannot help but consider what a brilliant, though near impossible to execute, plan this might have been for the CIA to keep the United Kingdom on board in the Middle East. The world knows what pressure the administrations of Blair and Bush have fallen under due to their strategy and execution concerning Iraq. The once confident Blair has recently sounded confused as he seems to backtrack from his positions of the past. President Bush was humiliated by a Congress that defiantly voiced dissension to our campaign in Iraq through its vote for a time line for the withdrawal of American troops.
Tony Blair recently announced that the United Kingdom would withdraw its troops from Iraq, and he also expressed serious concern about war with Iran. What better way to turn the sentiment of the United Kingdom, than by testing the pride of its great people. I mean, these are people who have to be separated by fence to peacefully enjoy games between rival futbol clubs. A Chelsea/Arsenal match in old Highbury would be a hundred times uglier than a Giants/Eagles game in Philadelphia, without the barrier. People who can express that kind of allegiance for a futbol club, will unite quickly and fiercely behind Blair now.
We may never really know which nation's waters that commandeered British ship was in, but it does not even matter at this point. The British were acting under the mandate of the United Nations, and did not seek to provoke an incident with the Iranian navy. If only there were a Tehran Tigers to play with the Texas Rangers, then maybe sense would take hold...
This Week...
Remember that second leg of the housing crisis we were discussing back in January when the home builders and many experts were pointing toward a settling bottom. Take a look at the chart of Beazer Homes (BZH)... Okay, so Beazer's chart is a little more pronounced than the housing sector on the whole thanks to its investigation smorgasbord of four government organizations. Still, that second leg seems to be forming alongside all the poor news and data of the past couple weeks. This week's data is somewhat lacking of housing information, so it's possible these stocks could recover a bit, but that all depends on what new investigations are announced, if any.
We will jump right into the economic news flow Monday, as the important Institute of Supply Management index is reported for March. Bloomberg's consensus expects the reading of this key manufacturing report to measure 51.1, compared to 52.3 in February. While the service sector now drives the American economy, manufacturing data could helps us to imply how consumer demand might be shaping up, as well as how capital spending is progressing among businesses.
Even before the ISM report, overseas markets are likely to find influence from the quarterly tankan survey of business sentiment in Japan. While the recessed Congress will not make any noise this week, the President of the St. Louis Fed will address the Association for Business Economics on the topic of "Understanding Inflation."
On Tuesday, domestic auto sales for the month of March will be reported. Remember last month showed a surprise period of growth for General Motors. The status of this important American sector is likely to impact the market in some manner. Recent economic data and the credit tightening trend within the industry would seem to indicate a likelihood for that impact to be negative. Expect Tuesday earnings reports from International Speedway, Oxford Industries, Robbins & Myers and Pope & Talbot.
Factory orders are scheduled for report at 10:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday. The report for February is expected to show growth of 1.8%, versus a decrease of 5.6% in the previous period, according to Blomberg. If factory orders and the ISM report both show weakness, you should start to notice an increasing amount of talking heads discussing expectations for an increase in unemployment. Also, we believe more layoffs are coming from the construction sector. Imagine, as recently as January, Lennar's chief was speculating that his company might exceed first quarter estimates, and in March he announced that the spring selling season had yet to bloom and that he was pulling corporate guidance. We think it's safe to say, some firms have not yet reduced workforce enough, and that might cut into the earnings of Lennar (LEN) and others. We might get further insight into the situation from Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher, who will address the Austin Mortage Bankers Association on Wednesday.
Expect earnings news from Best Buy, Circuit City, Monsanto, Micron Technology, Acuity Brands, MSC Industrial, Immucor, Healthways Inc., Blyth Inc., and Georgia Gulf Corp. In overseas activity, the Reserve Bank of Australia will conclude its two-day meeting, and render a decision on interest rates.
On Thursday, the Bank of England will decide on its rates, and in light of recent data and news, we do not anticipate a change. Many international markets will be closed for holiday on Thursday. The Ching Ming festival will close the market in Hong Kong, while Holy Thursday is the reason for closure in Argentina, Colombia, Denmark, Mexico, Norway, the Philippines, Sweden and Venezuela. In the U.S., earnings reports are scheduled from Constellation Brands, RPM International, Schulman and WD-40 Co.
On Friday, many international markets and the equity and commodity markets in the United States are closed for Good Friday. The economists, however, seem to practice a different complex and scientific religion, and four important economic reports are due. At 8:30 a.m., March nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase by 130,000, according to Bloomberg's poll, compared to an increase of 97,000 in February. The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.6%, versus 4.5% in February. At 10:00 a.m., February wholesale inventories will be announced, with expectations set for an increase of 0.4%, versus a rise of 0.7% in January. Finally, at 3:00 p.m., consumer credit for the month of February will be announced.
Clearly the week's data will provide us with a signal on how the manufacturing segment is holding up, and its relationship with employment is likely to also be tested. We'll keep you updated on a daily basis, as we intend to return to our regular publishing schedule, and ad a nightly article as well on a few occasions this week.
To receive "The Greek's Week Ahead" and our daily reports via email, click here and provide us with your email address. We respect your privacy and will never share your information with any third party. (disclosure)
Labels: Week Ahead
posted by The Greek | 12:39 AM
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