Geopolitical Factor - Israel Will Do the Bombing

Tensions intensified after last Thursday's IAEA report indicated that Iran had stepped up its uranium enrichment efforts since being sanctioned by the United Nations in December. World powers are now scheduled to meet on Monday in London to discuss a new, harsher set of sanctions against Iran.

After North Korea agreed to back off its nuclear program, Iran has shown interest in what it might be offered as compensation for compliance to U.N. requests. However, Iran refuses to halt enrichment, the prerequisite laid before it for moving forward. Time and again, Iranian officials have publicly stated that they would not submit to the "bullying" of the U.S., just to reach the negotiating table. At the same time, the United States has no confidence that Iran is sincere in its offers to appease the world community's concerns about its "peaceful nuclear program." In other words, the U.S. is sure that Iran's statements are pure stalling tactics.

China brokered the North Korean deal, and it is likely necessary that a third-party nation play a significant role in the Iranian negotiations. In this case, we believe it would have to be Russia, Iran's closest partner in its nuclear efforts.

We believe it will ironically become more and more complicated for the U.S. to use force against Iran as the diplomatic process progresses. As a result of the Iraq campaign, and due to concerns that Iran could more significantly impact the global economy if confronted militarily, America is handcuffed. Also, we believe that as negotiations progress, it becomes more likely that Russia and China could present a serious obstacle to the use of military force on Iran. It is likely in America's best interest to provoke Iran into a mistake that would allow for retribution. Otherwise, the paralysis of analysis, and diplomacy, could position Russia into a more significant alliance with Iran. Considering Vladimir Putin's recent comments and actions, we do not view it out of the question for Russia to stand for Iran, depending on Iran's actions and statements during the process. This is why we fully expect Israel to act on its own at a time when least expected, and not long from today.

We believe the positioning of additional American troops in Iraq, along with a second aircraft carrier fleet in the Persian Gulf, are indicative of information sharing between Israel and America. We expect that the recent travels of Israeli and U.S. officials, including recent actions and plans of Condoleezza Rice, Dick Cheney and John Negroponte, are indicative of more preparations and communications with allies. For instance, Rice's strange meeting with Ehud Olmert and Mahmoud Abbas last week seemed like a good cover for another discussion with Israeli officials about Iran.

We anticipate that American forces are being positioned to contain an Iran that will undoubtedly lash out after it is bombed by Israeli forces, possibly aided covertly by the United States. It is in the United States' interest to protect vital petroleum producers and routes in the region and our own forces and interests in Iraq. In plain English, we believe an Israeli led bombing attack of Iran may be imminent, meaning within weeks or a few months.

Tony Blair's recent move to get his guys outta there, and recent statements he's made against military confrontation with Iran, seem to imply that he disagrees with the theoretical plan we suggest exists.

The pace of the filling of the strategic oil reserve implies an early 2008 American military effort. However, this nation must be well aware that Iran has studied our actions ahead of the recent conflicts with Iraq, and must also be concerned that Iran could act preemptively, as Iranian military representatives have suggested in the past. Thus, we suspect an illusory campaign is playing out before our eyes. Israel's timeline is not as long as the world community's, as Israel must survive within their own threatening Middle Eastern community. We believe Israel's illogical campaign against Lebanon was nothing less than a test of the military capabilities of what will likely become a front in the war that follows an Israeli bombing run against Iran. Despite congressional democrats' concern about Bush administration plans for Iran, we believe the U.S. is merely positioning forces to protect our interests in the region, while preparing to contain a retaliatory Iran and maintain the stability of petroleum distribution.

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