The Greek's Week Ahead - Nov 20

"The Greek's Week Ahead" is designed to help you prepare for the market-moving events of the week so you and your portfolio are not caught off guard. Whether it helps you to prepare strategy or just raise your awareness of important factors that may move markets, we hope you find it useful.

The week of Thanksgiving is typically a light trading one, as most portfolio managers, traders and analysts hit the road early on Wednesday, if their in the office at all. Markets are closed Thursday for America's great celebration of Thanksgiving, and markets open for only an abbreviated session on Friday.

On the heals of solid CPI data, but frighteningly weak housing starts data last week, markets are likely to become less concerned with inflation risk and more worried about the potential for recession. The bond market seems to be indicating an expectation for interest rate cuts before any hike, and seems to portend a potential for economic recession. Housing starts and new permits both came in well below expectations for the month of October, and all eyes are on the consumer and his willingness to spend now. Consumer sentiment data this week and spending on Black Friday may provide some indication on how well the consumer is weathering the housing downturn.

On Monday, the leading economic indicators index is expected to show an increase of 0.2% for October, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists. The number is expected to have benefited some from the strength of the stock market during the month. Internationally, markets in Mexico and Brazil are closed for the day.

On the economic tour, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson will speak in New York about the competitiveness of the U.S. capital markets. Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher addresses a group in Frankfurt, Germany, on the topic: "Is German Economic Decline Exaggerated or Inevitable?"

Congregating Monday, the Bank for International Settlements will hold its bi-monthly meeting in Sydney, and ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet will hold a coinciding news conference. Also, the National Association for Business Economics discusses its outlook. Finally, the Nobel Prize winner for his work on micro-lending programs for the poor, Muhammad Yunus, speaks at the National Press Club in Washington.

Reporting earnings on Monday are: Campbell Soup, Genesis Healthcare, Lowe's Company, Valspar Corp., Blue Coat Systems, Dycom Industries, Jo-Ann Stores, Nordstrom, Medtronic and Phillips-Van Heusen. Also, the lock-up period from the sale of shares of MasterCard International's IPO expires Monday.

Tuesday, Fed Governor Kevin Warsh addresses a group in New York on market discipline and the Fed. Richmond Fed Head Jeffrey Lacker, the guy who wanted to raise rates, will speak to the Richmond Association for Business Economics. Also on Tuesday, the Treasury will announce two and five-year note sales.

Overseas, the Bank of Japan will release the minutes from its October meeting. The former premier of Italy, Silvio Berlusconi goes on trial in Milan on charges of false accounting, embezzlement and tax fraud related to the purchase of TV rights. Finally, the dispute-settlement body of the World Trade Organization meets in Geneva likely amid protests as usual.

Reporting earnings on Tuesday are Dollar Tree Stores, Fred's, Genesco Inc., Gamestop Corp., Tech Data Corp., United Natural Foods, Brown Shoe Co., Eaton Vance Corp., Jack in The Box Inc., Mesa Air Group, Borders Group, Coldwater Creek and Payless Shoesource. Also Tuesday, Jacobs Engineering will hold an analysts' day and the lockup period on Loews' March secondary offering expires.

Wednesday brings the most important economic news of the week with the release of the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index. The Bloomberg consensus of analysts poll sees a reading of 93.1 versus 92.3 last period. The Department of Energy reports crude-oil, gasoline and other distillates' inventories Wednesday. With the holiday approaching, the bond market closes at 2 p.m. and CBOT trading ceases at 1 or 1:30 for all contracts except equities. Equity markets trading typically lightens significantly on the Wednesday before the holiday, barring any external stimulus. However, work overseas grinds on, as the World Economic Forum meets in Turkey from Wednesday through Friday.

Reporting earnings on Wednesday are Patterson Company Inc., Possis Medical, and appropriately so, turkey producer Hormel Foods Corp. Reckson Associates Realty will hold a shareholders meeting in Melville, NY Wednesday, of note because the company is the subject of a takeover bid by Carl Icahn and Macklowe Properties.

Thursday welcomes the American holiday of Thanksgiving. May your turkey be yummy! U.S. markets will be closed for the feast. In Germany, the IFO business climate index will be released.

Regarding the most important topic of the day other than the condition of the turkey roast, our favorite sports blog, Monday Morning Mehta, is a great source for a preview of the day's and weekend's games.

Black Friday kicks off the holiday shopping season and many abstract measures of consumer spending on the day may drive shares, but for the most part market participants are likely to not be paying much attention to anything other than football. Equity markets are open for an abbreviated session, closing at 1:00 p.m., while the bond market wraps up at 2 p.m. and the CBOT turns the lights off at 1 or 1:30. The Nymex is closed for the day. Sunday brings an important election in South America, where a Chavez like right wing candidate stands a chance at winning a presidential runoff election in Ecuador. We hope you enjoyed "The Greek's Week Ahead" and recommend you read "Today's Morning Coffee" during the week to get your free market preview for the day. We will not publish on Thursday or Friday this week. (disclosure)