The Greek's Week Ahead - Oct 30
"The Greek's Week Ahead" is designed to help you prepare for the market moving events of the week so you and your portfolio are not caught off guard. Whether it helps you to prepare strategy or just raise your awareness of important factors that may move markets, we hope you find it useful.
We believe an economic term will be reintroduced into the lexicon of investors this week. Stagflation! And welcome, just in time for Halloween, appropriately dressed to scare investors out of stocks. Ah yes, the dreaded combination of economic stagnation and inflation; perhaps the Fed's worst fear, as it could handcuff their ability to maintain economic stability. And worst of all, it might make the economy vulnerable to the worst case scenario, depression.
Fear not trick or treaters, as this is not yet a significant risk. The Fed believes the economy will pick up steam soon, while inflation will weaken. Still, economic indicators of consumer strength this week will perhaps give investors some reason to imply whether the weakness in the housing market has spread enough to impact the consumer's ability to spend, a truly terrifying consequence. If the consumer tightens his belt, the American economy and the earnings of corporate America will be damaged, and that means stock prices too would be at risk.
On Monday, some very important economic data will help the markets decide which direction to head. The September readings on personal income and spending will be released. August data showed personal income rose by 0.3%, and Bloomberg's survey of economists shows consensus expectations for September at 0.3% growth as well. August personal consumption data showed a 0.1% increase, and September is forecast at 0.2%. If personal spending is below consensus, stocks could take a dive, in our opinion, as the market would relate housing weakness to personal spending, and fear degradation.
Fresh from last week's FOMC meeting, two Fed Presidents will be let loose to horrify the masses. Jekyll like perhaps, Dallas Fed Chief Richard Fisher, will give an address entitled "An Update on the Status of the Economy" to the New York Association for Business Economics. Mr. Hyde, or let's call him Jeffrey Lacker, Richmond Fed Chief and lone dissenter against a rate pause and supporter of a quarter point increase, will howl in the night or day on Monday as well.
Reporting earnings on Monday, Verizon Communications, Metlife Inc., Simon Property Group, Sysco Corporation, FPL Group Inc. and Clear Channel Communications.
Tuesday officially ushers in the gouls of Halloween. While candy sales may peak, the Conference Board's release of the consumer-confidence index for October will show just how afraid the consumer has become. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect the reading to measure 108.0. The reading for September was 104.5. On the same day, the Labor Department will release the employment-cost index for the third quarter. A reading we view less important, the Chicago purchasing managers will issue their report on U.S. manufacturing in October. Economist consensus expects a reading of 58.0, while September measured at 62.1.
Scheduled to report earnings on Tuesday are Procter & Gamble, Valero Energy, Marathon Oil, Automatic Data Processing, Archer Daniels Midland, Loews Corp., PNC Financial Services Group, Entergy Corp., EOG Resources, Vornado Realty Trust, Qwest Communications and American Electric.
Wednesday welcomes in the month of November and the celebration of the fall harvest. We might get a sign of whether it will be a season of Thanksgiving or not with the Institute of Supply Management's release of its manufacturing index for October. Economists are looking for a reading of 53.0, compared to September's reading of 52.9. Also, September construction spending will be released on Wednesday. Economists expect the data to show no growth, versus an increase of 0.3% growth in August.
In Singapore, EMTA, a trade association hosts a forum on recent economic and political developments in emerging markets. Finally, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will keynote the Opportunity Finance Network conference in Washington, D.C.
Reporting earnings on Wednesday are Time Warner, Prudential Financial, Devon Energy, Dominion Resources, Newmont Mining, Allergan Inc., and Marsh & Mclennan.
Thursday, Challenger, Gray & Christmas, the global outplacement consultancy, will release its monthly report on planned job cuts announced in October. September cuts climbed 54%. Also, September factory orders will be announced and Q3 productivity change.
Reporting earnings on Thursday are Qualcomm, CVS Corp., Transocean Inc., Caremark Rx Inc., CBS Corp., Becton Dickinson, Electronic Arts, and International Paper.
On Friday, the unemployment rate for October will be announced and is expected to measure 4.6%, as it was in September. October non-farm payroll is expected to grow by 125,000 jobs, versus 51,000 in September. Also, the Institute for Supply Management will release its non-manufacturing index, a better barometer of the health of the American economy than manufacturing.
Reporting earnings on Friday are Duke Energy and Medco Health Solutions. We hope this helps you better prepare for the week ahead. Look for "Today's Morning Coffee" on Tuesday, for your pre-market warm up of the day.
We believe an economic term will be reintroduced into the lexicon of investors this week. Stagflation! And welcome, just in time for Halloween, appropriately dressed to scare investors out of stocks. Ah yes, the dreaded combination of economic stagnation and inflation; perhaps the Fed's worst fear, as it could handcuff their ability to maintain economic stability. And worst of all, it might make the economy vulnerable to the worst case scenario, depression.
Fear not trick or treaters, as this is not yet a significant risk. The Fed believes the economy will pick up steam soon, while inflation will weaken. Still, economic indicators of consumer strength this week will perhaps give investors some reason to imply whether the weakness in the housing market has spread enough to impact the consumer's ability to spend, a truly terrifying consequence. If the consumer tightens his belt, the American economy and the earnings of corporate America will be damaged, and that means stock prices too would be at risk.
On Monday, some very important economic data will help the markets decide which direction to head. The September readings on personal income and spending will be released. August data showed personal income rose by 0.3%, and Bloomberg's survey of economists shows consensus expectations for September at 0.3% growth as well. August personal consumption data showed a 0.1% increase, and September is forecast at 0.2%. If personal spending is below consensus, stocks could take a dive, in our opinion, as the market would relate housing weakness to personal spending, and fear degradation.
Fresh from last week's FOMC meeting, two Fed Presidents will be let loose to horrify the masses. Jekyll like perhaps, Dallas Fed Chief Richard Fisher, will give an address entitled "An Update on the Status of the Economy" to the New York Association for Business Economics. Mr. Hyde, or let's call him Jeffrey Lacker, Richmond Fed Chief and lone dissenter against a rate pause and supporter of a quarter point increase, will howl in the night or day on Monday as well.
Reporting earnings on Monday, Verizon Communications, Metlife Inc., Simon Property Group, Sysco Corporation, FPL Group Inc. and Clear Channel Communications.
Tuesday officially ushers in the gouls of Halloween. While candy sales may peak, the Conference Board's release of the consumer-confidence index for October will show just how afraid the consumer has become. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect the reading to measure 108.0. The reading for September was 104.5. On the same day, the Labor Department will release the employment-cost index for the third quarter. A reading we view less important, the Chicago purchasing managers will issue their report on U.S. manufacturing in October. Economist consensus expects a reading of 58.0, while September measured at 62.1.
Scheduled to report earnings on Tuesday are Procter & Gamble, Valero Energy, Marathon Oil, Automatic Data Processing, Archer Daniels Midland, Loews Corp., PNC Financial Services Group, Entergy Corp., EOG Resources, Vornado Realty Trust, Qwest Communications and American Electric.
Wednesday welcomes in the month of November and the celebration of the fall harvest. We might get a sign of whether it will be a season of Thanksgiving or not with the Institute of Supply Management's release of its manufacturing index for October. Economists are looking for a reading of 53.0, compared to September's reading of 52.9. Also, September construction spending will be released on Wednesday. Economists expect the data to show no growth, versus an increase of 0.3% growth in August.
In Singapore, EMTA, a trade association hosts a forum on recent economic and political developments in emerging markets. Finally, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will keynote the Opportunity Finance Network conference in Washington, D.C.
Reporting earnings on Wednesday are Time Warner, Prudential Financial, Devon Energy, Dominion Resources, Newmont Mining, Allergan Inc., and Marsh & Mclennan.
Thursday, Challenger, Gray & Christmas, the global outplacement consultancy, will release its monthly report on planned job cuts announced in October. September cuts climbed 54%. Also, September factory orders will be announced and Q3 productivity change.
Reporting earnings on Thursday are Qualcomm, CVS Corp., Transocean Inc., Caremark Rx Inc., CBS Corp., Becton Dickinson, Electronic Arts, and International Paper.
On Friday, the unemployment rate for October will be announced and is expected to measure 4.6%, as it was in September. October non-farm payroll is expected to grow by 125,000 jobs, versus 51,000 in September. Also, the Institute for Supply Management will release its non-manufacturing index, a better barometer of the health of the American economy than manufacturing.
Reporting earnings on Friday are Duke Energy and Medco Health Solutions. We hope this helps you better prepare for the week ahead. Look for "Today's Morning Coffee" on Tuesday, for your pre-market warm up of the day.
Labels: Week Ahead
posted by The Greek | 12:51 PM
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