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Seeking Alpha

Thursday, March 06, 2008

America's Greatest Asset


America's greatest asset is neither its high standard of living or quality of life. It's the freedom that fosters opportunity for the kind of creative thinking that finds resolution to all troubles.

(Stocks in article: NYSE: M, NYSE: JCP, Nasdaq: JOYG, NYSE: BBI, NYSE: TGT, NYSE: WMT, NYSE: UBS, NYSE: MER, NYSE: KFY, NYSE: ANF, NYSE: HRB, AMEX: SPY, AMEX: DIA, Nasdaq: QQQQ, AMEX: SDS, AMEX: DOG, AMEX: QLD)

Commodities continued their record rise overnight, but the morning was greeted with better than expected employment data and retail results this morning. As the market teeters between concern about, and hope for its future, recent data (read today at least) has not offered anything to jump off a cliff over. Past issues continue to find mitigation in our resilient and creative economy and culture. It's really something to be proud of; that is how far evolved our economy is.

Still, the specter of overleveraged conditions in government and individual debt levels, deteriorating secondary markets and global inflationary pressure are real problems worth worrying about. Kudos to the man who can accurately measure what's more important and what might overcome the other. We'll put our money on America over the long-term. The country should be able to adapt to a dynamic global marketplace, and eventually come out the better for it.

Have faith in our private sector leaders, well-schooled in not only the tools of today, but also the skill of problem solving. Bank on our ability to mitigate and resolve, not on the depth of current problems. We shall overcome. Here's where the fully invested reader says to himself, "Just let me know if the market is moving lower or higher this week Greek, and cut out the philosophy Plato!"

At times like these, people lose focus. They forget what America's greatest asset is. It's freedom, and what it fosters. It's in those institutions of higher learning, where you send your kids for thousands of dollars. It's that place covered in ivy where our prodigies are learning to not only master the market of today, but shape the markets of tomorrow. It's not in our giant consumption machine, higher standard of living or quality of life. It's in what got us there, our creative and progressive will and effort. This country benefits from an environment that fosters creative thinking, for those who choose to open their minds. For those who want the table set for them, it also offers a place to eat. We may have our issues, but I wouldn't trade our problems for other's national treasures in a New York minute.

Employment

Weekly initial jobless claims came in lower than expected, though still at a testy level. The reading for the week ended March 2nd counted 351K new unemployment claims, matching against expectations for 360K.

The Monster Employment Index showed improvement in February, rising 5 points to 165. However, as you can see below, this still placed it relatively low in comparison to the last twelve months. Still, improvement is good, and change of direction is good in the near-term no matter how short-lived it could prove to be.


Retail Shows Life

The retail sector stood up and screamed, don't count us out... kind of. Recent trends in the ICSC-UBS count of same-store sales have offered prelude into this data today offered by individual retailers. But, the strongest of the performers are the stores selling necessities, and selling them at attractive prices. Read into that, the consumer is still cash strapped but has to eat.

We should not discount the fact that more retailers exceeded expectations than missed them, but as shoppers get choosy, some players are going to do well and others are going to close up shop. Look to your low-cost providers like Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) and Costco (Nasdaq: COST) to continue to outperform as shoppers who were on the fringe of poverty slip into the depths of it. Wal-Mart posted a 2.6% increase in February same-store sales, while J.C. Penney (NYSE: JCP) saw sales slip 6.7%.

Now, the high end is not on the fringe, and the rich are still rich enough. So, Saks (NYSE: SKS) saw sales rise 3.4%. Investors should stick to the extremes in retail and avoid department stores that fall in the middle. Macy's (NYSE: M) probably made a good decision to keep its sales private from now on (read until they get good). Perhaps Macy's management thinks its shares may now do better than rivals with their numbers hidden under the rug. However, this is short-sighted, since they will be forced to own up when they report their next quarter.

Thank you. (disclosure)

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1 Comments:

Blogger anonymous jones said...

I would've said America's greatest asset is Pedro.

10:26 PM  

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